Made on
Aug 18, 2026
Price at call
$384.31
6-month call
Bear -13.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$332.00
Great value below
$270.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-13.6% to $332.00
Predicted High
$386.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$332.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-13.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 18, 2026 12:51 am
Bear
HUM trends lower to
$332.00
(-13.6% from $384.31)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisHUM has run 109% in six months on earnings beats and risk-on tape, but valuation anchors (composite FV $306, anchored-PE $170) and cracking Medicare Advantage narrative argue for gradual mean reversion. Near-term momentum and no imminent catalyst keep price sticky, with fade emerging as MA fundamentals reassert over the window.
Invalidated ifA break above $410 on MA reimbursement upside or sustained hold above $400 through Q4 invalidates the fade thesis; conversely a break below $340 accelerates it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $384.31 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 18, 2026 | — | $384.31 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 1, 2026 | $354.68–$413.94 typical range · internal point $386.50 | — | ±7.7% | 6/10 | Momentum and risk-on tape keep price sticky short-term |
| 1 month | Sep 18, 2026 | $341.38–$427.24 typical range · internal point $382.00 | — | ±11.2% | 6/10 | Drift lower as post-beat euphoria cools |
| 2 months | Oct 18, 2026 | $372.00 | — | -3.2% | 5/10 | MA narrative concerns weigh, no catalyst to defend |
| 3 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $358.00 | — | -6.8% | 5/10 | Value gravity pulls toward composite fair value zone |
| 4 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $348.00 | — | -9.4% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning trims extended winners |
| 5 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $340.00 | — | -11.5% | 4/10 | January MA rate chatter pressures sentiment further |
| 6 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $332.00 | — | -13.6% | 3/10 | Convergence toward $306 fair value continues gradually |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $378.61 (-1.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $384.31 |
| Composite fair value | $306.27 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $258.22 |
| DCF fair value | $394.24 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $170.07 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $270.00 |
| Value net score | -69 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +1 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 39.5% 3m 38.7% 6m 42.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.75 3m 0.34 5m 0.45 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 108.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | HUM-20260818-002106-b0a8 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | ext-HUM-20260818-003635-982a |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | ext-HUM-20260818-003635-982a |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | ext-HUM-20260818-003635-982a |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | ext-HUM-20260818-003635-982a |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | HUM-20260818-002106-b0a8 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | HUM-20260818-002106-b0a8 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $384.31 | $332.00 | -13.6% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $389.32 | $410.00 | +5.3% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.