IBM
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International Business Machines Corporation
Technology · Information Technology Services
Made on
Aug 3, 2026
Price at call
$223.65
6-month call
Bull +6.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$238.20
Great value below
$185.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+6.5% to $238.20
Predicted High
$238.20
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$221.80
in 2 weeks
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-0.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 3, 2026 12:36 am
Bull
IBM trends higher to
$238.20
(+6.5% from $223.65)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisIBM trades below composite fair value with a beaten-down 6mo tape and negative sentiment, but 5-of-5 EPS beats and a benign neutral regime support gradual mean-reversion toward the signal-adjusted anchor. Near-term drift is muted by the fading-legacy narrative; value gravity asserts over months toward the deterministic endpoint.
Invalidated ifA close below $200 on fresh guide-down, or failure to reclaim $230 by m3, would break the recovery thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $223.65 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 3, 2026 | — | $223.65 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 17, 2026 | $188.55–$258.75 typical range · internal point $221.80 | — | ±15.7% | 6/10 | sentiment overhang, low beta, minor drift lower |
| What actually happened: closed $234.32 on Aug 14, 2026 = +4.8% vs the call (predicted -0.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.6 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±15.7%: inside the band · S&P +2.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 3, 2026 | $172.79–$274.51 typical range · internal point $224.50 | — | ±22.7% | 5/10 | stabilization near composite fair value |
| What actually happened: closed $231.70 on Sep 2, 2026 = +3.6% vs the call (predicted +0.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.2 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±22.7%: inside the band · S&P +0.9% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 3, 2026 | $228.90 | — | +2.3% | 5/10 | pre-earnings positioning, beat streak recognized |
| What actually happened: closed $222.67 on Oct 2, 2026 = -0.4% vs the call (predicted +2.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.8 pp · accuracy 9/10 · S&P +1.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 3, 2026 | $232.00 | — | +3.7% | 4/10 | earnings print nudges toward signal-adjusted anchor |
| 4 months | Dec 3, 2026 | $234.50 | — | +4.9% | 4/10 | value gravity, buyback and dividend support |
| 5 months | Jan 3, 2027 | $236.80 | — | +5.9% | 3/10 | year-end rotation into laggard quality |
| 6 months | Feb 3, 2027 | $238.20 | — | +6.5% | 3/10 | convergence toward deterministic endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $238.66 (+6.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $223.65 |
| Composite fair value | $216.80 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $234.15 |
| DCF fair value | $276.34 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $188.96 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $185.00 |
| Value net score | -33 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +36 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 105.5% 3m 78.8% 6m 65.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 5.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.25 3m 0.16 5m 0.38 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -27.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | IBM-20260803-000636-bfda |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-IBM-20260803-002617-7d7c |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-IBM-20260803-002617-7d7c |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-IBM-20260803-002617-7d7c |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-IBM-20260803-002617-7d7c |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | IBM-20260803-000636-bfda |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | IBM-20260803-000636-bfda |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $223.65 | $238.20 | +6.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 26, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.