Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$567.84
6-month call
Bear -11.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$505.00
Great value below
$460.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-11.1% to $505.00
Predicted High
$571.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$505.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-11.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 2:49 am
Bear
IDXX trends lower to
$505.00
(-11.1% from $567.84)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisIDXX trades at roughly 2.5x fair value with a skeptical value lens, but a strong platform-monopoly narrative, high quality score, and risk-on regime are supporting price near-term. Expect modest drift lower as valuation gravity slowly asserts itself, but no near-term catalyst forces a sharp break given no earnings on the calendar.
Invalidated ifA move above $610 on strong volume or a decisive break below $500 accelerating the drawdown would invalidate this gentle decay path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $567.84 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $567.84 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $531.60–$604.08 typical range · internal point $571.00 | — | ±6.4% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and momentum hold price near current |
| What actually happened: closed $546.09 on Aug 17, 2026 = -3.8% vs the call (predicted +0.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.4 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±6.4%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $515.33–$620.35 typical range · internal point $566.00 | — | ±9.2% | 6/10 | Sideways drift, low-vol name, no catalyst |
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $555.00 | — | -2.3% | 5/10 | Valuation skeptics gain marginal ground |
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $542.00 | — | -4.6% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, positioning trims |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $528.00 | — | -7.0% | 4/10 | Post-earnings digestion, value gravity increases |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $515.00 | — | -9.3% | 4/10 | Year-end rebalancing away from premium multiples |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $505.00 | — | -11.1% | 4/10 | Slow convergence toward anchored-PE fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $496.70 (-12.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $567.84 |
| Composite fair value | $201.37 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $223.88 |
| DCF fair value | $132.29 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $448.43 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $460.00 |
| Value net score | -65 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +87 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 29.9% 3m 32.0% 6m 31.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.14 3m 0.43 5m 0.81 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -15.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | IDXX-20260803-124954-abcf |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-IDXX-20260803-132318-8504 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-IDXX-20260803-132318-8504 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-IDXX-20260803-132318-8504 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-IDXX-20260803-132318-8504 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | IDXX-20260803-124954-abcf |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | IDXX-20260803-124954-abcf |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $567.84 | $505.00 | -11.1% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $544.32 | $485.00 | -10.9% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.