Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$119.52
6-month call
Bear -5.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$113.50
Great value below
$95.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-5.0% to $113.50
Predicted High
$121.50
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$113.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 12:59 am
Bear
INCY trends lower to
$113.50
(-5.0% from $119.52)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisINCY has momentum from a strong Q2 beat and EU Opzelura approval, but the composite fair value sits below current price. Expect near-term drift higher on sentiment tailwind, then gradual mean-reversion toward the $110-115 fair-value band as the catalyst fades and no new earnings print arrives until late in the window.
Invalidated ifA break above $130 on new pipeline data or below $105 on Jakafi erosion news would falsify this path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $119.52 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $119.52 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $110.47–$128.57 typical range · internal point $120.80 | — | ±7.6% | 7/10 | Post-beat momentum and EU approval buzz persist |
| What actually happened: closed $120.17 on Aug 14, 2026 = +0.5% vs the call (predicted +1.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.5 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±7.6%: inside the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $106.40–$132.64 typical range · internal point $121.50 | — | ±11.0% | 6/10 | Low-beta drift higher in neutral tape |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $119.00 | — | -0.4% | 5/10 | Catalyst fades, value gravity starts pulling |
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $116.50 | — | -2.5% | 5/10 | Convergence toward signal-adjusted fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $115.00 | — | -3.8% | 5/10 | No catalysts, mean-reversion continues quietly |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $114.00 | — | -4.6% | 4/10 | Year-end tax positioning on winners |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $113.50 | — | -5.0% | 4/10 | Settles near fair-value band pre-Q4 print |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $117.45 (-1.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $119.52 |
| Composite fair value | $99.53 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $116.05 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $160.22 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $95.00 |
| Value net score | -46 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +42 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 40.0% 3m 38.0% 6m 35.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.15 3m -0.31 5m 0.30 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 18.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | INCY-20260730-185629-e1b8 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-INCY-20260730-191903-7908 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-INCY-20260730-191903-7908 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-INCY-20260730-191903-7908 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-INCY-20260730-191903-7908 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | INCY-20260730-185629-e1b8 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | INCY-20260730-185629-e1b8 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $119.52 | $113.50 | -5.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.