Made on
Aug 17, 2026
Price at call
$12.09
6-month call
Bear -12.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$10.60
Great value below
$8.25
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-12.3% to $10.60
Predicted High
$12.05
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$10.60
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-12.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 17, 2026 12:55 am
Bear
INFY trends lower to
$10.60
(-12.3% from $12.09)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisINFY trades above composite fair value ($9.63) with a negative value lens and weak 6-month price momentum, but a risk-on tape and steady-compounder quality provide near-term support. Expect gradual drift toward the anchored-PE zone as valuation gravity outweighs the modest sentiment tailwind over 6 months.
Invalidated ifA sustained move above $12.75 on strong volume, or a beat-and-raise catalyst re-rating the multiple, would invalidate the drift-lower thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $12.09 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 17, 2026 | — | $12.09 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 31, 2026 | $10.94–$13.24 typical range · internal point $12.05 | — | ±9.5% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape holds; low-beta ADR drifts sideways |
| 1 month | Sep 17, 2026 | $10.43–$13.75 typical range · internal point $11.85 | — | ±13.7% | 6/10 | Mild mean reversion toward deterministic baseline begins |
| 2 months | Oct 17, 2026 | $11.60 | — | -4.1% | 5/10 | Value gravity pulls lower absent catalyst |
| 3 months | Nov 17, 2026 | $11.35 | — | -6.1% | 5/10 | Earnings window; steady compounder but multiple compresses |
| 4 months | Dec 17, 2026 | $11.10 | — | -8.2% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning; ADR flows soft |
| 5 months | Jan 17, 2027 | $10.85 | — | -10.3% | 4/10 | Convergence toward anchored-PE fair value zone |
| 6 months | Feb 17, 2027 | $10.60 | — | -12.3% | 4/10 | Approaching deserved value $10.61 anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $11.82 (-2.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 4 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
liquidity
-
Note
dilution
-
Note
earningsQuality
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $12.09 |
| Composite fair value | $9.63 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $9.18 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $10.05 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $8.25 |
| Value net score | -62 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +51 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 42.1% 3m 47.6% 6m 41.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.08 3m -0.36 5m 0.08 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -14.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | INFY-20260817-002237-7d69 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-INFY-20260817-004101-435f |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-INFY-20260817-004101-435f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-INFY-20260817-004101-435f |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-INFY-20260817-004101-435f |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | INFY-20260817-002237-7d69 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | INFY-20260817-002237-7d69 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $12.09 | $10.60 | -12.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.