Made on
Aug 30, 2026
Price at call
$118.54
6-month call
Bear -14.0%
Target by Mar 2027
$102.00
Great value below
$80.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-14.0% to $102.00
Predicted High
$128.00
at 2 months
Predicted Low
$102.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-14.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 30, 2026 1:03 pm
Bear
INSM trends lower to
$102.00
(-14.0% from $118.54)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisINSM is a pre-profit biotech riding a strengthening Brinsupri launch narrative into a risk-on tape, so near-term momentum likely extends before value gravity and stretched-macro undertow reassert. Expect a modest ride higher into Q4 catalysts, then a fade as fundamentals and the deep negative value/quality read pull the tape back toward the $95-105 zone by spring.
Invalidated ifA close below $95 in the next month, or Brinsupri launch disappointment, would break the momentum leg; a decisive close above $140 on volume would invalidate the fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $118.54 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 30, 2026 | — | $118.54 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 13, 2026 | $101.40–$135.68 typical range · internal point $121.50 | — | ±14.5% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and Brinsupri momentum extend near-term drift |
| What actually happened: closed $129.41 on Sep 11, 2026 = +9.2% vs the call (predicted +2.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 6.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±14.5%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 30, 2026 | $93.70–$143.38 typical range · internal point $124.00 | — | ±21.0% | 5/10 | Sentiment tailwind persists into month-end positioning |
| What actually happened: closed $115.63 on Sep 29, 2026 = -2.5% vs the call (predicted +4.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 7.1 pp · accuracy 7/10 · typical range ±21.0%: inside the band · S&P -0.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 30, 2026 | $128.00 | — | +8.0% | 4/10 | Q3 print anticipation and launch update lift narrative |
| 3 months | Nov 30, 2026 | $125.00 | — | +5.4% | 4/10 | Post-earnings digestion; value lens starts to weigh |
| 4 months | Dec 30, 2026 | $115.00 | — | -3.0% | 4/10 | Year-end profit-taking meets stretched-macro undertow |
| 5 months | Jan 30, 2027 | $108.00 | — | -8.9% | 3/10 | January reset; quality and forensic drags reassert |
| 6 months | Mar 2, 2027 | $102.00 | — | -14.0% | 3/10 | Drift toward attractive-below-80 zone as momentum fades |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 6 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
No positive earnings — traditional DCF and EPV are not applicable
-
Note
Valuation is inherently speculative — based on revenue multiples and growth assumptions
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $118.54 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -70 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -51 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 105.9% 3m 72.6% 6m 72.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.25 3m 0.77 5m 0.82 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -20.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | INSM-20260830-033002-a551 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-INSM-20260830-041143-548c |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-INSM-20260830-041143-548c |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-INSM-20260830-041143-548c |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-INSM-20260830-041143-548c |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | INSM-20260830-033002-a551 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | INSM-20260830-033002-a551 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $118.54 | $102.00 | -14.0% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.