Made on
Jul 28, 2026
Price at call
$30.95
6-month call
Bull +10.5%
Target by Jan 2027
$34.20
Great value below
$28.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+10.5% to $34.20
Predicted High
$34.20
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$30.50
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 28, 2026 12:52 am
Bull
JD trends higher to
$34.20
(+10.5% from $30.95)
by Jan 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisJD trades near multi-year lows with a bearish scenario anchor far above spot ($157) suggesting deep value, but no catalyst on the calendar and risk-off tape keep it range-bound near-term; slow drift higher as value lens (attractive below $28) and low beta cushion downside, with gradual mean-reversion toward low-to-mid $30s over six months.
Invalidated ifA break below $27 on heavy volume, or a China consumer/regulatory shock, would falsify the slow-recovery thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $30.95 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 28, 2026 | — | $30.95 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 11, 2026 | $28.98–$32.92 typical range · internal point $30.80 | — | ±6.4% | 7/10 | Risk-off drift, low beta dampens moves, no catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $33.47 on Aug 10, 2026 = +8.1% vs the call (predicted -0.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 8.6 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.4%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 28, 2026 | $28.09–$33.81 typical range · internal point $30.50 | — | ±9.2% | 6/10 | Sideways chop, sentiment neutral, tape still cautious |
| What actually happened: closed $28.49 on Aug 27, 2026 = -8.0% vs the call (predicted -1.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 6.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±9.2%: inside the band · S&P +4.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 28, 2026 | $31.20 | — | +0.8% | 5/10 | Possible Q2 print window, value buyers nibble |
| What actually happened: closed $26.51 on Sep 25, 2026 = -14.4% vs the call (predicted +0.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 15.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +4.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Oct 28, 2026 | $32.00 | — | +3.4% | 5/10 | Mean reversion begins as regime normalizes |
| 4 months | Nov 28, 2026 | $32.80 | — | +6.0% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward fair-value zone |
| 5 months | Dec 28, 2026 | $33.50 | — | +8.2% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, oversold China names bid |
| 6 months | Jan 28, 2027 | $34.20 | — | +10.5% | 3/10 | Gradual re-rating toward composite value anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 4 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $30.95 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | +49 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +32 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 22.8% 3m 32.0% 6m 32.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.39 3m 0.38 5m 0.61 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 3.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | JD-20260728-000553-a4c4 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-JD-20260728-002713-022e |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-JD-20260728-002713-022e |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-JD-20260728-002713-022e |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-JD-20260728-002713-022e |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | JD-20260728-000553-a4c4 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | JD-20260728-000553-a4c4 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $30.95 | $34.20 | +10.5% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.