Made on
Aug 23, 2026
Price at call
$32.04
6-month call
Bull +7.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$34.50
Great value below
$27.50
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+7.7% to $34.50
Predicted High
$34.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$32.15
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 23, 2026 1:13 pm
Bull
KDP trends higher to
$34.50
(+7.7% from $32.04)
by Feb 2027.
other
ThesisKDP is a low-beta defensive with modest upside to composite fair value ($34.11) and DCF-implied further gains. In a risk-on regime with no near-term catalysts, expect a slow grind higher toward fair value, with 4-of-4 beat streak and quality/value support outweighing muted sentiment.
Invalidated ifBreak below $30 on volume, or a guide-down at next earnings print inside window
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $32.04 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 23, 2026 | — | $32.04 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 6, 2026 | $30.17–$33.91 typical range · internal point $32.15 | — | ±5.8% | 7/10 | Low-beta drift, no catalyst, tight range persists |
| 1 month | Sep 23, 2026 | $29.33–$34.75 typical range · internal point $32.40 | — | ±8.5% | 6/10 | Slow grind as risk-on regime lifts defensives modestly |
| 2 months | Oct 23, 2026 | $33.10 | — | +3.3% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches; beat history supports positioning |
| 3 months | Nov 23, 2026 | $33.60 | — | +4.9% | 5/10 | Earnings beat likely nudges toward composite fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 23, 2026 | $33.90 | — | +5.8% | 4/10 | Post-earnings drift toward $34.11 anchor |
| 5 months | Jan 23, 2027 | $34.20 | — | +6.7% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls closer to fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 23, 2027 | $34.50 | — | +7.7% | 4/10 | Converges near composite fair value, DCF supports |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $34.89 (+8.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $32.04 |
| Composite fair value | $34.11 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $30.02 |
| DCF fair value | $42.20 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $29.86 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $27.50 |
| Value net score | -27 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +21 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 30.1% 3m 29.3% 6m 28.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.05 3m -0.11 5m -0.05 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 8.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | KDP-20260822-152751-0978 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-KDP-20260822-154757-26ce |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-KDP-20260822-154757-26ce |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-KDP-20260822-154757-26ce |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-KDP-20260822-154757-26ce |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 23, 2026 | freshest | KDP-20260822-152751-0978 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 23, 2026 | freshest | KDP-20260822-152751-0978 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $32.04 | $34.50 | +7.7% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 24, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.