Made on
Jul 20, 2026
Price at call
$315.90
6-month call
Bear -10.7%
Target by Jan 2027
$282.00
Great value below
$240.00
Model
v0.4.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-10.7% to $282.00
Predicted High
$320.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$282.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-10.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 20, 2026 3:44 am
Bear
KEYS trends lower to
$282.00
(-10.7% from $315.90)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisKEYS trades at ~4x fair value but momentum (+51% 6mo) and a firm platform-monopoly narrative dominate near-term. Expect drift-then-fade: neutral regime and stretched multiple cap upside, with gradual gravity toward the low-$280s as rate drag and valuation weigh over the 6-month horizon.
Invalidated ifA break above $345 on strong volume, or a break below $270, would invalidate the slow-fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $315.90 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 20, 2026 | — | $315.90 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 3, 2026 | $288.59–$343.21 typical range · internal point $318.50 | — | ±8.6% | 6/10 | Momentum carry, neutral tape, no near-term catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $319.08 on Jul 31, 2026 = +1.0% vs the call (predicted +0.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.2 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±8.6%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 20, 2026 | $276.32–$355.48 typical range · internal point $320.00 | — | ±12.5% | 5/10 | Narrative intact, high beta rides broad market |
| What actually happened: closed $319.45 on Aug 19, 2026 = +1.1% vs the call (predicted +1.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.2 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±12.5%: inside the band · S&P +3.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 20, 2026 | $312.00 | — | -1.2% | 4/10 | Valuation friction begins, earnings positioning |
| 3 months | Oct 20, 2026 | $302.00 | — | -4.4% | 4/10 | Post-earnings digestion, multiple compression starts |
| 4 months | Nov 20, 2026 | $295.00 | — | -6.6% | 4/10 | Rate drag and value gravity accumulate |
| 5 months | Dec 20, 2026 | $288.00 | — | -8.8% | 3/10 | Year-end de-risking on stretched names |
| 6 months | Jan 20, 2027 | $282.00 | — | -10.7% | 3/10 | Fair-value pull dominates, converges toward baseline |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $277.45 (-12.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.4.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $315.90 |
| Composite fair value | $73.64 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $68.66 |
| DCF fair value | $84.38 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $240.00 |
| Value net score | -43 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +76 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 55.6% 3m 43.4% 6m 49.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.12 3m 1.65 5m 1.82 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 50.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.4.0
#d5854b4b2216 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | KEYS-20260720-030001-265f |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-KEYS-20260720-033312-b53d |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-KEYS-20260720-033312-b53d |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-KEYS-20260720-033312-b53d |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-KEYS-20260720-033312-b53d |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | KEYS-20260720-030001-265f |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | KEYS-20260720-030001-265f |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2026 | v0.4.0 | Bear | $315.90 | $282.00 | -10.7% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.4.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.