Made on
Aug 19, 2026
Price at call
$59.51
6-month call
Bear -20.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$47.50
Great value below
$32.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-20.2% to $47.50
Predicted High
$62.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$47.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-20.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 19, 2026 11:46 am
Bear
KMX trends lower to
$47.50
(-20.2% from $59.51)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisKMX rides risk-on momentum and 'last platform standing' narrative near-term as peer weakness lifts sentiment, but rich valuation vs $27-39 fair value range and quality/forensic red flags reassert gravity by winter, especially once a Q3 print lands inside the window.
Invalidated ifA clean earnings beat with used-vehicle unit growth reaccelerating above 5% YoY, or KMX breaking above $65 on volume, would invalidate the fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $59.51 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 19, 2026 | — | $59.51 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 2, 2026 | $54.04–$64.98 typical range · internal point $61.20 | — | ±9.2% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape and peer-stumble narrative extend momentum |
| 1 month | Sep 19, 2026 | $51.58–$67.44 typical range · internal point $62.00 | — | ±13.3% | 5/10 | Sentiment tailwind persists absent catalysts |
| 2 months | Oct 19, 2026 | $58.50 | — | -1.7% | 4/10 | Momentum cools as valuation stretch noticed |
| 3 months | Nov 19, 2026 | $54.00 | — | -9.3% | 5/10 | Likely Q3 print reintroduces fundamental scrutiny |
| 4 months | Dec 19, 2026 | $51.00 | — | -14.3% | 5/10 | Value gravity toward DCF anchor accelerates |
| 5 months | Jan 19, 2027 | $49.00 | — | -17.7% | 6/10 | Forensic concerns and quality weakness weigh |
| 6 months | Feb 19, 2027 | $47.50 | — | -20.2% | 6/10 | Converges toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $48.71 (-18.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 3 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Degraded
[critical] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Degraded
[critical] AI analysis identifies strong headwinds — multiple forces working against this stock
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $59.51 |
| Composite fair value | $27.59 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $20.17 |
| DCF fair value | $38.98 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $14.00 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $32.00 |
| Value net score | -79 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -30 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 24.7% 3m 46.2% 6m 49.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.01 3m 1.09 5m 0.90 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 35.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | KMX-20260819-001939-00a3 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-KMX-20260819-034942-0e9f |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-KMX-20260819-034942-0e9f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-KMX-20260819-034942-0e9f |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-KMX-20260819-034942-0e9f |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | KMX-20260819-001939-00a3 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | KMX-20260819-001939-00a3 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $59.51 | $47.50 | -20.2% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.