Made on
Aug 15, 2026
Price at call
$271.64
6-month call
Bull +21.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$330.00
Great value below
$260.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+21.5% to $330.00
Predicted High
$330.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$277.50
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 15, 2026 12:41 am
Bull
LNG trends higher to
$330.00
(+21.5% from $271.64)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisLNG has strong sentiment tailwinds from geopolitical LNG supply shock and Q2 beat, with valuation still well below fair value. Momentum should carry near-term, with gradual convergence toward baseline as value gravity pulls the price higher over months, though the pace will moderate.
Invalidated ifBreak below $250 support or resolution of European gas supply crisis collapsing the LNG spread premium
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $271.64 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 15, 2026 | — | $271.64 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 29, 2026 | $255.19–$288.09 typical range · internal point $277.50 | — | ±6.1% | 7/10 | Sentiment tailwind and risk-on regime extend momentum |
| What actually happened: closed $282.31 on Aug 28, 2026 = +3.9% vs the call (predicted +2.2%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.8 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±6.1%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 15, 2026 | $247.80–$295.48 typical range · internal point $285.00 | — | ±8.8% | 6/10 | Continued LNG supply narrative and dip-buying below fair value |
| What actually happened: closed $274.28 on Sep 14, 2026 = +1.0% vs the call (predicted +4.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.0 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±8.8%: inside the band · S&P -2.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 15, 2026 | $295.00 | — | +8.6% | 5/10 | Value gravity kicks in as gap to fair value closes |
| 3 months | Nov 15, 2026 | $308.00 | — | +13.4% | 5/10 | Q3 print catalyst likely mid-November supports upside |
| 4 months | Dec 15, 2026 | $315.00 | — | +16.0% | 4/10 | Winter demand narrative sustains bid into year-end |
| 5 months | Jan 15, 2027 | $322.00 | — | +18.5% | 4/10 | January flows and continued value convergence |
| 6 months | Feb 15, 2027 | $330.00 | — | +21.5% | 4/10 | Approaches deterministic baseline as thesis matures |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $339.30 (+24.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $271.64 |
| Composite fair value | $440.76 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $471.17 |
| DCF fair value | $434.16 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $406.51 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $260.00 |
| Value net score | +32 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +28 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 35.6% 3m 30.4% 6m 34.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.06 3m -0.73 5m -1.04 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 24.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | LNG-20260815-001724-5769 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | ext-LNG-20260815-003101-eba7 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | ext-LNG-20260815-003101-eba7 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | ext-LNG-20260815-003101-eba7 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | ext-LNG-20260815-003101-eba7 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | LNG-20260815-001724-5769 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | LNG-20260815-001724-5769 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $271.64 | $330.00 | +21.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.