Made on
Aug 23, 2026
Price at call
$51.48
6-month call
Bull +37.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$71.00
Great value below
$55.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+37.9% to $71.00
Predicted High
$71.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$52.30
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 23, 2026 1:28 pm
Bull
LTM trends higher to
$71.00
(+37.9% from $51.48)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisLTM trades well below composite fair value with strong earnings consistency, but sentiment and EM/airline skepticism cap near-term upside. Expect a slow drift higher as value gravity pulls the stock toward the mid-70s over six months, with the risk-on regime providing early lift.
Invalidated ifBreak below $49 bear scenario or loss of risk-on regime with EM credit stress
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $51.48 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 23, 2026 | — | $51.48 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 6, 2026 | $47.11–$55.85 typical range · internal point $52.30 | — | ±8.5% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape lifts oversold near attractive-below level |
| 1 month | Sep 23, 2026 | $45.15–$57.81 typical range · internal point $53.40 | — | ±12.3% | 5/10 | Mild mean reversion as value buyers step in |
| 2 months | Oct 23, 2026 | $55.80 | — | +8.4% | 5/10 | Sentiment stabilizes, EM airline peers firm modestly |
| 3 months | Nov 23, 2026 | $59.50 | — | +15.6% | 5/10 | Possible Q3 print beat continues 5-quarter streak |
| 4 months | Dec 23, 2026 | $63.00 | — | +22.4% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward composite fair value builds |
| 5 months | Jan 23, 2027 | $67.50 | — | +31.1% | 4/10 | Re-rating continues as turnaround narrative firms |
| 6 months | Feb 23, 2027 | $71.00 | — | +37.9% | 3/10 | Approaching deterministic baseline endpoint area |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $73.55 (+42.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $51.48 |
| Composite fair value | $98.17 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $115.00 |
| DCF fair value | $115.08 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $55.00 |
| Value net score | +24 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +44 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 39.8% 3m 42.6% 6m 50.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.64 3m 1.77 5m 2.20 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -10.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 15, 2026 | 7d behind | LTM-20260815-141739-75a0 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-LTM-20260822-171139-fe9f |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-LTM-20260822-171139-fe9f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-LTM-20260822-171139-fe9f |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-LTM-20260822-171139-fe9f |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | LTM-20260822-165702-8f3b |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | LTM-20260822-165702-8f3b |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $51.48 | $71.00 | +37.9% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 16, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.