Made on
Aug 11, 2026
Price at call
$320.32
6-month call
Bull +9.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$350.00
Great value below
$285.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+9.3% to $350.00
Predicted High
$350.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$325.50
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 11, 2026 1:31 am
Bull
MPC trends higher to
$350.00
(+9.3% from $320.32)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisMPC trades below composite fair value with risk-on tape, positive sentiment, and strong momentum (57.8% trailing 6m). Path drifts higher toward the ~$350 baseline as value gravity and benign flow dominate, though the huge prior run limits near-term upside and invites mid-path consolidation.
Invalidated ifRegime flips to risk-off or MPC breaks below $300 on volume, signaling momentum exhaustion and negating value-convergence thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $320.32 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 11, 2026 | — | $320.32 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 25, 2026 | $297.49–$343.15 typical range · internal point $325.50 | — | ±7.1% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape and positive sentiment extend recent drift |
| 1 month | Sep 11, 2026 | $287.23–$353.41 typical range · internal point $330.00 | — | ±10.3% | 6/10 | Momentum carries higher, no earnings catalyst near |
| 2 months | Oct 11, 2026 | $335.00 | — | +4.6% | 5/10 | Q3 print window; modest beat history supports drift |
| 3 months | Nov 11, 2026 | $340.00 | — | +6.1% | 5/10 | Value gap narrows toward composite fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 11, 2026 | $345.00 | — | +7.7% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, refining seasonals mixed |
| 5 months | Jan 11, 2027 | $348.00 | — | +8.6% | 4/10 | Approach to baseline as convergence slows |
| 6 months | Feb 11, 2027 | $350.00 | — | +9.3% | 4/10 | Settles near deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $350.44 (+9.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] AI analysis identifies strong headwinds — multiple forces working against this stock
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $320.32 |
| Composite fair value | $393.95 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $356.25 |
| DCF fair value | $379.52 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $477.25 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $285.00 |
| Value net score | +12 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +28 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 40.0% 3m 35.8% 6m 37.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.32 3m -0.36 5m -0.65 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 57.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | MPC-20260811-004903-87ed |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-MPC-20260811-011937-2906 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-MPC-20260811-011937-2906 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-MPC-20260811-011937-2906 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-MPC-20260811-011937-2906 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | MPC-20260811-004903-87ed |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | MPC-20260811-004903-87ed |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $320.32 | $350.00 | +9.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 12, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $283.74 | $276.81 | -2.4% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.