Made on
Sep 2, 2026
Price at call
$388.08
6-month call
Bull +27.6%
Target by Mar 2027
$495.00
Great value below
$320.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+27.6% to $495.00
Predicted High
$495.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$402.50
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 2, 2026 1:01 pm
Bull
MPC trends higher to
$495.00
(+27.6% from $388.08)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisMPC is riding a hot refining/Hormuz-risk tape with strong momentum (80% trailing 6mo) and sits well below composite fair value near $700. Near-term the sentiment and cohort strength should extend the rally, then digestion sets in, but value gravity plus a still-supportive backdrop keeps the drift higher toward the deterministic baseline over 6 months.
Invalidated ifA collapse in refining crack spreads or resolution of Hormuz risk premium sending MPC back below $340, or a broad risk-off regime shift.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $388.08 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 2, 2026 | — | $388.08 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 16, 2026 | $361.17–$414.99 typical range · internal point $402.50 | — | ±6.9% | 6/10 | Momentum and refiner cohort tailwind persist near term |
| What actually happened: closed $410.84 on Sep 15, 2026 = +5.9% vs the call (predicted +3.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 2.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.9%: inside the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 2, 2026 | $349.08–$427.08 typical range · internal point $412.00 | — | ±10.1% | 5/10 | Sentiment windfall narrative continues lifting group |
| What actually happened: closed $420.15 on Oct 1, 2026 = +8.3% vs the call (predicted +6.2%) · direction HIT (called up, was up) · off by 2.1 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±10.1%: inside the band · S&P +0.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Nov 2, 2026 | $420.00 | — | +8.2% | 4/10 | Digestion of rally, some profit-taking after run |
| 3 months | Dec 2, 2026 | $435.00 | — | +12.1% | 4/10 | Q4 refining seasonality and value gap attract buyers |
| 4 months | Jan 2, 2027 | $455.00 | — | +17.2% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward composite fair value asserts |
| 5 months | Feb 2, 2027 | $475.00 | — | +22.4% | 3/10 | Earnings print reinforces cash return story |
| 6 months | Mar 2, 2027 | $495.00 | — | +27.6% | 3/10 | Drift toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $514.94 (+32.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $388.08 |
| Composite fair value | $701.75 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $623.80 |
| DCF fair value | $777.79 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $1,012.70 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $320.00 |
| Value net score | -6 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +13 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 38.7% 3m 34.8% 6m 36.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.77 3m -0.30 5m -0.80 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 80.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 11, 2026 | 21d behind | MPC-20260811-004903-87ed |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-MPC-20260901-235218-f4fb |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-MPC-20260901-235218-f4fb |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-MPC-20260901-235218-f4fb |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-MPC-20260901-235218-f4fb |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | MPC-20260901-233001-4f4d |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | MPC-20260901-233001-4f4d |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.