Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$210.55
6-month call
Bull +7.8%
Target by Feb 2027
$227.00
Great value below
$180.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+7.8% to $227.00
Predicted High
$227.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$207.50
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 12:45 am
Bull
MS trends higher to
$227.00
(+7.8% from $210.55)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisMS trades below composite fair value with quality intact and a mild sentiment drag; expect gradual mean-reversion toward the $227-230 anchor, with early chop from advisor attrition and rate-cut noise giving way to value gravity over the six-month window.
Invalidated ifBreak below $195 on heavy volume, or a regime flip to risk-off with wealth-management outflows exceeding prior quarters.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $210.55 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $210.55 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $197.85–$223.25 typical range · internal point $209.00 | — | ±6.0% | 6/10 | Neutral tape, mild sentiment drag near term |
| What actually happened: closed $217.35 on Aug 14, 2026 = +3.2% vs the call (predicted -0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.0 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±6.0%: inside the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $192.15–$228.95 typical range · internal point $207.50 | — | ±8.7% | 5/10 | Rate-cut chatter, advisor attrition headlines weigh |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $213.00 | — | +1.2% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, EPS beat streak supportive |
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $218.00 | — | +3.5% | 5/10 | Earnings beat likely, value gap narrows |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $222.00 | — | +5.4% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning toward quality compounders |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $225.50 | — | +7.1% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward composite fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $227.00 | — | +7.8% | 4/10 | Convergence near anchored PE fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $227.53 (+8.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $210.55 |
| Composite fair value | $229.00 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $246.86 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $229.00 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $180.00 |
| Value net score | -21 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +64 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 34.5% 3m 30.3% 6m 31.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.28 3m 1.35 5m 1.25 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 15.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | MS-20260801-001034-a2a4 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-MS-20260801-003431-2c62 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-MS-20260801-003431-2c62 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-MS-20260801-003431-2c62 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-MS-20260801-003431-2c62 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | MS-20260801-001034-a2a4 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | MS-20260801-001034-a2a4 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $210.55 | $227.00 | +7.8% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 24, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.