Made on
Jun 12, 2026
Price at call
$34.57
6-month call
Bull +16.7%
Target by Dec 2026
$40.36
Great value below
$30.00
Model
v0.3.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast
One directional 6-month call and the six monthly points we'll be scored against. Predicted Jun 12, 2026 3:08 am
Bull
MTCH trends higher to
$40.36
(+16.7% from $34.57)
by Dec 2026.
| Monthmonths after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $34.57 at call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jun 12, 2026 | — | $34.57 at call | — |
| M1 | Jul 12, 2026 | $35.53 | — | +2.8% |
| What actually happened: closed $38.85 on Jul 10, 2026 = +12.4% vs the call (predicted +2.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 9.6 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +1.9% over the same window — beat it | ||||
| M2 | Aug 12, 2026 | $36.50 | — | +5.6% |
| What actually happened: closed $36.80 on Aug 11, 2026 = +6.5% vs the call (predicted +5.6%) · direction HIT (called up, was up) · off by 0.9 pp · accuracy 10/10 · S&P +4.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||
| M3 | Sep 12, 2026 | $37.46 | — | +8.4% |
| What actually happened: closed $42.39 on Sep 11, 2026 = +22.6% vs the call (predicted +8.4%) · direction HIT (called up, was up) · off by 14.3 pp · accuracy 5/10 · S&P +3.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||
| M4 | Oct 12, 2026 | $38.43 | — | +11.2% |
| What actually happened: closed $41.09 on Oct 9, 2026 = +18.9% vs the call (predicted +11.2%) · direction HIT (called up, was up) · off by 7.7 pp · accuracy 7/10 · S&P +5.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||
| M5 | Nov 12, 2026 | $39.39 | — | +14.0% |
| M6 | Dec 12, 2026 | $40.36 | — | +16.7% |
Deserved value (DCF/composite) is $51.50; over 6 months we project closing only part-way to it (reach 34.2%). Value-only — see Not Yet Modeled below.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.3.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $34.57 |
| Composite fair value | $45.01 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $40.57 |
| DCF fair value | $53.83 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $30.00 |
| Value net score | +0 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +21 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | $49.42 |
| Quality tilt | +4.2% |
| Deserved value (used) | $51.50 |
| Coherence (value × quality) | 1.00 |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 24.3% 3m 31.3% 6m 32.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.66 3m 0.88 5m 1.05 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 1.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| Deserved wt · DCF | 0.5 |
| Quality tilt cap (±) | 0.2 |
| Horizon reach (6mo) | 0.45 |
| Coherence floor (conflict) | 0.5 |
| Conviction gain / pt | 0.06 |
| Realism mean-reversion φ | 0.85 |
| Conviction floor | 0.4 |
| Deserved wt · composite | 0.5 |
| Realism vol window | 3m |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| Horizon (months) | 6 |
| Realism σ fallback | 0.015 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.3.0
#6bd904191719 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jun 12, 2026 | freshest | MTCH-20260612-030001-6ccc |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jun 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-MTCH-20260612-030723-8ea5 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jun 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-MTCH-20260612-030723-8ea5 |
ext-lens-value |
Jun 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-MTCH-20260612-030723-8ea5 |
scenario-valuation |
Jun 12, 2026 | freshest | MTCH-20260612-030001-6ccc |
valuation-synthesis |
Jun 12, 2026 | freshest | MTCH-20260612-030001-6ccc |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bull | $34.57 | $40.36 | +16.7% | Dec 2026 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.3.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Signal-adjusted fair value ($40.57) — the red-flag-adjusted anchor isn't the primary input yet (we use the raw DCF/composite blend, which double-counts DCF).
- Recent momentum / drift — the line takes off straight; the trailing 6-month move (1.6%) doesn't bend the slope.
- Market beta — computed (1–5mo) for context but does not condition the path.
- Earnings dates, catalysts, and known events — not modeled.
- Macro regime & sector rotation — not modeled.
- Horizon is a fixed 6-month assumption, not a modeled time-to-target.
- Outcome scoring — predictions aren't yet graded against realized price once the evaluation date passes.