Made on
Aug 29, 2026
Price at call
$166.22
6-month call
Bear -10.4%
Target by Mar 2027
$149.00
Great value below
$110.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-10.4% to $149.00
Predicted High
$175.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$149.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-10.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 29, 2026 1:09 pm
Bear
OKTA trends lower to
$149.00
(-10.4% from $166.22)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisOKTA is running hot on the AI-identity narrative with a red-hot 129% six-month return, but trades at nearly 2x composite fair value. Momentum and risk-on regime likely extend the rally near-term, then gravity pulls back toward the deterministic baseline as the story matures and rich valuation weighs.
Invalidated ifA break below $140 in the first month, or a sustained close above $195, would falsify this ride-then-fade path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $166.22 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 29, 2026 | — | $166.22 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 12, 2026 | $141.24–$191.20 typical range · internal point $172.50 | — | ±15.0% | 6/10 | Momentum and risk-on tape extend post-earnings rally |
| What actually happened: closed $166.50 on Sep 11, 2026 = +0.2% vs the call (predicted +3.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.6 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±15.0%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 29, 2026 | $130.02–$202.42 typical range · internal point $175.00 | — | ±21.8% | 5/10 | AI-identity narrative peaks, buyers still in control |
| What actually happened: closed $202.18 on Sep 28, 2026 = +21.6% vs the call (predicted +5.3%) · direction HIT (called up, was up) · off by 16.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±21.8%: inside the band · S&P -0.4% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 29, 2026 | $170.00 | — | +2.3% | 5/10 | Rally stalls as valuation concerns re-emerge |
| 3 months | Nov 29, 2026 | $162.00 | — | -2.5% | 4/10 | Earnings window approaches, positioning trims |
| 4 months | Dec 29, 2026 | $158.00 | — | -4.9% | 4/10 | Year-end profit-taking on high-beta winners |
| 5 months | Jan 29, 2027 | $153.00 | — | -8.0% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward deterministic baseline |
| 6 months | Mar 1, 2027 | $149.00 | — | -10.4% | 4/10 | Convergence to baseline as narrative cools |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $150.21 (-9.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $166.22 |
| Composite fair value | $71.32 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $91.13 |
| DCF fair value | $85.08 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $110.00 |
| Value net score | -80 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +8 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 97.2% 3m 75.4% 6m 76.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 3.47 3m 2.09 5m 1.21 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 129.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | OKTA-20260829-033001-c281 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-OKTA-20260829-035328-c2f4 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-OKTA-20260829-035328-c2f4 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-OKTA-20260829-035328-c2f4 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-OKTA-20260829-035328-c2f4 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | OKTA-20260829-033001-c281 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | OKTA-20260829-033001-c281 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $166.22 | $149.00 | -10.4% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.