Made on
Aug 5, 2026
Price at call
$236.60
6-month call
Bear -14.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$202.00
Great value below
$150.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-14.6% to $202.00
Predicted High
$238.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$202.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-14.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 5, 2026 2:39 am
Bear
OSIS trends lower to
$202.00
(-14.6% from $236.60)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisOSIS trades at roughly 6x the composite fair value with a decaying narrative and no cult support, but the risk-on regime and 5-of-5 EPS beat cadence delay the mean reversion. Expect modest near-term firmness followed by grinding compression as the sentiment premium erodes over months.
Invalidated ifA break above $260 on strong volume or a sixth consecutive beat with raised guide would invalidate the fade thesis; conversely a drop below $210 would accelerate it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $236.60 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 5, 2026 | — | $236.60 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 19, 2026 | $211.04–$262.16 typical range · internal point $238.50 | — | ±10.8% | 6/10 | risk-on regime supports drift, no catalyst near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $221.58 on Aug 19, 2026 = -6.4% vs the call (predicted +0.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 7.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±10.8%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 5, 2026 | $199.57–$273.63 typical range · internal point $234.00 | — | ±15.7% | 5/10 | momentum cooling, first cracks in narrative premium |
| 2 months | Oct 5, 2026 | $227.00 | — | -4.1% | 5/10 | pre-earnings positioning, valuation gravity begins |
| 3 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $222.00 | — | -6.2% | 4/10 | post-print digestion, fade continues absent surprise |
| 4 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $215.00 | — | -9.1% | 4/10 | year-end de-risking, sentiment decay compounds |
| 5 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $208.00 | — | -12.1% | 4/10 | January reset, gap-to-fundamentals narrative louder |
| 6 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $202.00 | — | -14.6% | 3/10 | grinding toward deterministic baseline as premium bleeds |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $200.84 (-15.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Cash flow quality is poor — reported earnings may not reflect reality
-
Degraded
[critical] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $236.60 |
| Composite fair value | $38.02 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $36.15 |
| DCF fair value | $15.34 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $150.00 |
| Value net score | -54 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +15 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 29.0% 3m 54.2% 6m 47.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.38 3m 0.96 5m 1.19 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -6.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | OSIS-20260803-171816-7094 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-OSIS-20260803-180552-1e11 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-OSIS-20260803-180552-1e11 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-OSIS-20260803-180552-1e11 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-OSIS-20260803-180552-1e11 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | OSIS-20260803-171816-7094 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | OSIS-20260803-171816-7094 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $236.60 | $202.00 | -14.6% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.