Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$163.96
6-month call
Bear -11.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$145.50
Great value below
$130.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-11.3% to $145.50
Predicted High
$162.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$145.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-11.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 1:01 am
Bear
PAYC trends lower to
$145.50
(-11.3% from $163.96)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisPAYC screens rich versus composite fair value near $137 and DCF at $128, but the low-beta compounder profile and recent 22% run limit downside speed. Expect gradual mean-reversion toward the mid-140s over six months as valuation gravity outweighs a soft, narrative-free sentiment backdrop.
Invalidated ifA beat-and-raise print or reacceleration above $175 on volume, or conversely a break below $145 that opens the DCF gap to $128.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $163.96 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $163.96 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $147.94–$179.98 typical range · internal point $162.50 | — | ±9.8% | 6/10 | Low-beta drift, no catalyst, mild valuation drag |
| What actually happened: closed $218.13 on Aug 14, 2026 = +33.0% vs the call (predicted -0.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 33.9 pp · accuracy 2/10 · typical range ±9.8%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $140.74–$187.18 typical range · internal point $160.00 | — | ±14.2% | 6/10 | Neutral regime, sentiment slightly negative, slow fade |
| What actually happened: closed $237.95 on Sep 1, 2026 = +45.1% vs the call (predicted -2.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 47.5 pp · accuracy 1/10 · typical range ±14.2%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +1.9% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $157.00 | — | -4.2% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning light, gravity toward fair value |
| What actually happened: closed $217.65 on Sep 30, 2026 = +32.8% vs the call (predicted -4.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 37.0 pp · accuracy 2/10 · S&P +2.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $153.00 | — | -6.7% | 5/10 | Earnings likely in window, beat priced but guide caps |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $150.00 | — | -8.5% | 4/10 | Post-print digestion, composite anchor pulls lower |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $147.00 | — | -10.3% | 4/10 | Convergence toward signal-adjusted fair value 145 |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $145.50 | — | -11.3% | 4/10 | Settles near composite fair value, quality floor holds |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $160.98 (-1.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $163.96 |
| Composite fair value | $136.68 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $145.15 |
| DCF fair value | $128.25 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $201.13 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $130.00 |
| Value net score | -55 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +58 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 51.2% 3m 49.1% 6m 47.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.54 3m -0.79 5m -0.36 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 22.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | PAYC-20260730-181753-d41f |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-PAYC-20260730-182731-18ed |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-PAYC-20260730-182731-18ed |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-PAYC-20260730-182731-18ed |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-PAYC-20260730-182731-18ed |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | PAYC-20260730-181753-d41f |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | PAYC-20260730-181753-d41f |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $163.96 | $145.50 | -11.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.