Made on
Aug 6, 2026
Price at call
$25.81
6-month call
Bull +7.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$27.75
Great value below
$22.50
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+7.5% to $27.75
Predicted High
$27.75
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$26.05
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 6, 2026 1:07 am
Bull
PFE trends higher to
$27.75
(+7.5% from $25.81)
by Feb 2027.
other
ThesisPFE trades well below composite fair value with defensive characteristics and consistent earnings beats, but a fallen-angel narrative and weak quality score cap enthusiasm. Expect gradual drift higher toward the mid-to-high 20s as value gravity slowly works, with modest early momentum from the risk-on regime.
Invalidated ifA dividend cut, pipeline setback, or drop below $23 would falsify the slow-grind-higher thesis
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $25.81 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 6, 2026 | — | $25.81 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 20, 2026 | $24.77–$26.85 typical range · internal point $26.05 | — | ±4.0% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime supports modest drift from current levels |
| What actually happened: closed $28.24 on Aug 19, 2026 = +9.4% vs the call (predicted +0.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 8.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±4.0%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 6, 2026 | $24.30–$27.32 typical range · internal point $26.30 | — | ±5.9% | 6/10 | Low-beta defensive bid continues in absence of catalysts |
| What actually happened: closed $28.45 on Sep 4, 2026 = +10.2% vs the call (predicted +1.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 8.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±5.9%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 6, 2026 | $26.65 | — | +3.3% | 5/10 | Q3 earnings anticipation with 5-of-5 beat streak |
| What actually happened: closed $27.41 on Oct 5, 2026 = +6.2% vs the call (predicted +3.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 2.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +0.8% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 6, 2026 | $27.20 | — | +5.4% | 5/10 | Likely earnings beat reinforces guidance credibility |
| 4 months | Dec 6, 2026 | $27.45 | — | +6.4% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward composite fair value continues |
| 5 months | Jan 6, 2027 | $27.10 | — | +5.0% | 4/10 | Year-end tax-loss pressure on unloved names |
| 6 months | Feb 6, 2027 | $27.75 | — | +7.5% | 3/10 | New-year rotation into defensive value laggards |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $26.97 (+4.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $25.81 |
| Composite fair value | $32.78 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $31.09 |
| DCF fair value | $24.14 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $22.34 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $22.50 |
| Value net score | +6 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +13 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 17.3% 3m 20.3% 6m 21.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.08 3m -0.03 5m 0.14 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -0.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | PFE-20260806-000518-6d33 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-PFE-20260806-005228-ea07 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-PFE-20260806-005228-ea07 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-PFE-20260806-005228-ea07 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-PFE-20260806-005228-ea07 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | PFE-20260806-000518-6d33 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | PFE-20260806-000518-6d33 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $25.81 | $27.75 | +7.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 30, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bull | $24.39 | $25.99 | +6.6% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.