PGY
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Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Common Stock
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Made on
Aug 19, 2026
Price at call
$20.45
6-month call
Bear -14.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$17.50
Great value below
$15.50
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-14.4% to $17.50
Predicted High
$22.80
at 2 months
Predicted Low
$17.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-14.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 19, 2026 12:21 pm
Bear
PGY trends lower to
$17.50
(-14.4% from $20.45)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisPGY is a high-beta, narrative-driven AI-credit name riding a risk-on tape with strong sentiment and 4-of-4 earnings beats, but stretched valuation (attractive only below $15.50) and negative value/quality scores create fade risk if regime cools. Expect near-term momentum continuation into a likely Q3 print, then mean-reversion pressure as the 65% trailing rally digests.
Invalidated ifA regime flip to risk-off, break below $17 on volume, or an earnings miss would invalidate the momentum leg; sustained close above $24 would invalidate the fade leg.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $20.45 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 19, 2026 | — | $20.45 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 2, 2026 | $17.49–$23.41 typical range · internal point $21.30 | — | ±14.5% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and momentum extend near-term drift higher |
| What actually happened: closed $20.94 on Sep 1, 2026 = +2.4% vs the call (predicted +4.2%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.8 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±14.5%: inside the band · S&P -1.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 19, 2026 | $16.16–$24.74 typical range · internal point $22.10 | — | ±21.0% | 5/10 | Sentiment tailwind and high beta amplify tape gains |
| 2 months | Oct 19, 2026 | $22.80 | — | +11.5% | 4/10 | Anticipation of Q3 print with 4-of-4 beat streak |
| 3 months | Nov 19, 2026 | $21.50 | — | +5.1% | 4/10 | Post-earnings digestion; valuation gravity begins pulling |
| 4 months | Dec 19, 2026 | $19.50 | — | -4.6% | 4/10 | Year-end profit-taking on 65% YTD run; beta cuts both ways |
| 5 months | Jan 19, 2027 | $18.20 | — | -11.0% | 3/10 | Value lens weight increases as narrative premium compresses |
| 6 months | Feb 19, 2027 | $17.50 | — | -14.4% | 3/10 | Drift toward attractive-below-$15.50 zone absent new catalyst |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 4 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $20.45 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -36 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -8 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 78.2% 3m 72.7% 6m 70.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 4.73 3m 3.72 5m 2.96 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 65.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 15, 2026 | 4d behind | PGY-20260815-101103-9e0d |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-PGY-20260819-084302-b926 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-PGY-20260819-084302-b926 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-PGY-20260819-084302-b926 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-PGY-20260819-084302-b926 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | PGY-20260819-002119-838e |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | PGY-20260819-002119-838e |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $20.45 | $17.50 | -14.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 9, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.