Made on
Sep 2, 2026
Price at call
$123.97
6-month call
Bear -11.3%
Target by Mar 2027
$110.00
Great value below
$95.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-11.3% to $110.00
Predicted High
$121.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$110.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-11.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 2, 2026 1:11 pm
Bear
PHM trends lower to
$110.00
(-11.3% from $123.97)
by Mar 2027.
decay
ThesisPHM trades well above composite fair value ($86.71) with deeply negative sentiment and a cracking housing narrative. Expect early drift lower on momentum and sentiment, then partial value gravity toward the mid-$100s but no full convergence within 6 months given no catalyst reversal.
Invalidated ifA close back above $132 on strong housing data or a decisive Fed easing surprise reversing the housing tape.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $123.97 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 2, 2026 | — | $123.97 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 16, 2026 | $115.07–$132.87 typical range · internal point $121.50 | — | ±7.2% | 6/10 | Weak sentiment and soft housing tape pressure early |
| What actually happened: closed $119.47 on Sep 15, 2026 = -3.6% vs the call (predicted -2.0%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.6 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±7.2%: inside the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 2, 2026 | $111.07–$136.87 typical range · internal point $119.00 | — | ±10.4% | 6/10 | Continued drift; no catalyst to break negative momentum |
| 2 months | Nov 2, 2026 | $116.00 | — | -6.4% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins; approaches deterministic baseline |
| 3 months | Dec 2, 2026 | $113.50 | — | -8.4% | 5/10 | Year-end tax-loss selling amplifies weakness |
| 4 months | Jan 2, 2027 | $115.00 | — | -7.2% | 4/10 | January rebound partially offsets prior selling |
| 5 months | Feb 2, 2027 | $112.00 | — | -9.7% | 4/10 | Q4 print risk and housing seasonality weigh |
| 6 months | Mar 2, 2027 | $110.00 | — | -11.3% | 4/10 | Fair-value pull continues but full convergence unlikely |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $116.53 (-6.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
-
Degraded
[critical] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $123.97 |
| Composite fair value | $86.71 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $92.01 |
| DCF fair value | $71.48 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $117.16 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $95.00 |
| Value net score | -70 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +38 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 30.3% 3m 36.0% 6m 34.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.46 3m 0.79 5m 1.02 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -6.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | PHM-20260902-053001-e62c |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-PHM-20260902-062055-66d3 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-PHM-20260902-062055-66d3 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-PHM-20260902-062055-66d3 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-PHM-20260902-062055-66d3 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | PHM-20260902-053001-e62c |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | PHM-20260902-053001-e62c |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $123.97 | $110.00 | -11.3% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.