Made on
Sep 1, 2026
Price at call
$34.10
6-month call
Bear -8.5%
Target by Mar 2027
$31.20
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.5% to $31.20
Predicted High
$34.70
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$31.20
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 1, 2026 1:02 pm
Bear
PPL trends lower to
$31.20
(-8.5% from $34.10)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisPPL trades far above composite fair value but the defensive utility plus data-center demand narrative is drawing steady bids in a risk-on tape with negative beta providing ballast. Expect near-term drift higher on sentiment, then gradual mean-reversion as valuation gravity reasserts, landing well above the deterministic $26.71 but modestly below spot.
Invalidated ifA break below $31 on heavy volume or a hostile rate-case ruling would invalidate; sustained move above $36 also reshapes the path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $34.10 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 1, 2026 | — | $34.10 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 15, 2026 | $32.79–$35.41 typical range · internal point $34.45 | — | ±3.9% | 7/10 | Risk-on regime and defensive bid support near-term drift |
| What actually happened: closed $33.79 on Sep 14, 2026 = -0.9% vs the call (predicted +1.0%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.9 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±3.9%: inside the band · S&P -0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 1, 2026 | $32.20–$36.00 typical range · internal point $34.70 | — | ±5.6% | 6/10 | Data-center demand narrative continues to attract flows |
| 2 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $34.20 | — | +0.3% | 5/10 | Momentum plateaus as valuation stretch becomes visible |
| 3 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $33.40 | — | -2.1% | 5/10 | Year-end rebalancing trims extended utility positioning |
| 4 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $32.60 | — | -4.4% | 4/10 | January reset; rate-case headlines pressure multiple |
| 5 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $31.80 | — | -6.7% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward anchored-PE reasserts gradually |
| 6 months | Mar 1, 2027 | $31.20 | — | -8.5% | 4/10 | Fair-value pull continues but sentiment cushions decline |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $26.71 (-21.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $34.10 |
| Composite fair value | $12.55 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $12.02 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $25.03 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -44 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -2 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 17.3% 3m 19.3% 6m 18.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.09 3m -0.12 5m -0.10 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -11.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | PPL-20260901-010001-5684 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-PPL-20260901-012341-5b49 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-PPL-20260901-012341-5b49 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-PPL-20260901-012341-5b49 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-PPL-20260901-012341-5b49 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | PPL-20260901-010001-5684 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | PPL-20260901-010001-5684 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $34.10 | $31.20 | -8.5% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.