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Roblox Corp. Class A Common Stock
Communication Services · Electronic Gaming & Multimedia
Made on Aug 30, 2026
Price at call $38.53
6-month call Bear -13.1%
Target by Mar 2027 $33.50
Great value below $28.00
Model v0.6.0

Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)

The masterbrain's trajectory (blue, curved through its 7 checkpoints), the deterministic v0.3 control (dashed), and the actual price (green) overlaid from the prediction date forward.
Forecast Change -13.1% to $33.50
Predicted High $37.20 in 2 weeks
Predicted Low $30.20 at 4 months
Max Drawdown (predicted) -21.6%

Forecast

The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 30, 2026 1:05 pm
Bear RBLX trends lower to $33.50 (-13.1% from $38.53) by Mar 2027. decay
ThesisRBLX is in a sentiment-driven downtrend after back-to-back guidance misses cracked the platform-monopoly narrative, and with no near-term earnings catalyst the bleed likely continues into year-end before stabilizing as the stock approaches the value-attractive zone near $28. A risk-on tape and high-beta setup could produce short bounces, but the dominant path is lower into Q4, then a base as forced sellers exhaust.
Invalidated ifA reclaim of $46 on volume, or a positive pre-announcement/bookings update, would invalidate the fade thesis.
Checkpointtime after the call Datewhen it gets graded Predictedthe claim: closing price Current priceactual close — fills in over time Predicted returnpredicted vs $38.53 at call Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 Driverwhy the brain put the point here
Prediction made Aug 30, 2026 — $38.53 at call — —The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date.
2 weeks Sep 13, 2026 $31.96–$45.10 typical range · internal point $37.20 — ±17.1% 6/10 Post-miss drift continues, no catalyst to arrest slide
What actually happened: closed $45.50 on Sep 11, 2026 = +18.1% vs the call (predicted -3.5%)  ·  direction MISS (called flat, was up)  ·  off by 21.5 pp  ·  accuracy 3/10  ·  typical range ±17.1%: OUTSIDE the band  ·  S&P -0.7% over the same window — lagged it
1 month Sep 30, 2026 $29.01–$48.05 typical range · internal point $35.80 — ±24.7% 6/10 Momentum sellers press high-beta name into quarter-end
What actually happened: closed $41.18 on Sep 29, 2026 = +6.9% vs the call (predicted -7.1%)  ·  direction MISS (called down, was up)  ·  off by 14.0 pp  ·  accuracy 4/10  ·  typical range ±24.7%: inside the band  ·  S&P -0.5% over the same window — lagged it
2 months Oct 30, 2026 $33.50 — -13.1% 5/10 Narrative damage compounds absent positive datapoints
3 months Nov 30, 2026 $31.00 — -19.5% 5/10 Tax-loss selling pressure ahead of December
4 months Dec 30, 2026 $30.20 — -21.6% 4/10 Approaches value-attractive zone, sellers thinning
5 months Jan 30, 2027 $32.00 — -16.9% 4/10 January bounce as tax-loss pressure lifts, holiday bookings
6 months Mar 2, 2027 $33.50 — -13.1% 3/10 Base-building near value floor ahead of next print

Why ranges on the short rungs? A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here — three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.

Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.

Weaknesses

0 blocking · 1 degraded · 6 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).
  • Degraded
    No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
    value_anchor
  • Note
    No positive earnings — traditional DCF and EPV are not applicable
    upstream:classification
  • Note
    Valuation is inherently speculative — based on revenue multiples and growth assumptions
    upstream:classification
  • Note
    Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
    anchor:composite_fair_value
  • Note
    Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
    anchor:dcf
  • Note
    Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
    anchor:anchored_pe
  • Note
    Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
    anchor:signal_adjusted

Equation Inputs

Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.

Value anchors (from deep analysis)

Price at call$38.53
Composite fair value—
Signal-adjusted fair value—
DCF fair value—
Anchored-PE fair value—
Buy-below (value lens)—
Value net score-71
Value confidence7 / 10
Quality net score-29
Memo confidence— / 10
Deserved value (base)—
Quality tilt—
Deserved value (used)—
Coherence (value × quality)—

Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)

Realized volatility (annualized) 1m 113.6%  3m 85.6%  6m 77.5%  
Daily σ (realism noise)5.4%
Beta vs S&P 500 1m -0.20  3m 1.42  5m 1.12  
Trailing 6-month return-43.9%

Knobs (equation params)

ladder["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"]
llm_modelclaude-opus-4-7
max_tokens3000
control_knobs{"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375}
Neutral band (%)5
earnings_briefv1
prompt_versionp1
control_versionv0.3.0

Version & Tech Chain

What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model v0.6.0 #8eb3df85c300

Tech composition (what this version is built from)

#ProcessKindGroup
1 Synthesis valuation-synthesis deterministic final
2 Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation deterministic valuation
3 Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value llm extended
4 Company Quality ext-lens-quality llm extended
5 Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo llm extended
6 Classification company-classification llm foundation
7 Live Quote fmp-quote data market-data

Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)

Upstream processRanLagRun id
company-classification Aug 30, 2026 freshest RBLX-20260830-043001-6864
ext-forensic-memo Aug 30, 2026 freshest ext-RBLX-20260830-045326-0e41
ext-lens-quality Aug 30, 2026 freshest ext-RBLX-20260830-045326-0e41
ext-lens-sentiment Aug 30, 2026 freshest ext-RBLX-20260830-045326-0e41
ext-lens-value Aug 30, 2026 freshest ext-RBLX-20260830-045326-0e41
scenario-valuation Aug 30, 2026 freshest RBLX-20260830-043001-6864
valuation-synthesis Aug 30, 2026 freshest RBLX-20260830-043001-6864

Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.

Saved History

1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.
MadeModelCallAt callTargetExp.Eval due
Aug 30, 2026 v0.6.0 Bear $38.53 $33.50 -13.1% Mar 2027 viewing

Not Yet Modeled

What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.
  • Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
  • Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
  • Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.