Made on
Sep 5, 2026
Price at call
$262.19
6-month call
Neutral -4.6%
Target by Mar 2027
$250.00
Great value below
$205.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-4.6% to $250.00
Predicted High
$269.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$250.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 5, 2026 1:06 pm
Neutral
RGLD trends range-bound to
$250.00
(-4.6% from $262.19)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisRGLD sits above composite fair value with strong sentiment and gold's structural bid supporting near-term levels, but anchored-PE near current price and value-lens attractive zone near $205 create gradual gravity over 6 months. Expect a modest early lift on momentum and gold sentiment, then slow drift toward the anchored-PE around $260 with mild downside pressure from valuation.
Invalidated ifA break below $240 on sustained volume or a decisive gold selloff breaking $3000/oz would invalidate the mild-bullish-then-fade path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $262.19 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 5, 2026 | — | $262.19 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 19, 2026 | $242.50–$281.88 typical range · internal point $266.50 | — | ±7.5% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and gold bid extend near-term momentum |
| What actually happened: closed $249.65 on Sep 18, 2026 = -4.8% vs the call (predicted +1.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 6.4 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±7.5%: inside the band · S&P -0.9% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 5, 2026 | $233.66–$290.72 typical range · internal point $269.00 | — | ±10.9% | 5/10 | Sentiment tailwind persists absent catalysts |
| What actually happened: closed $234.64 on Oct 2, 2026 = -10.5% vs the call (predicted +2.6%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 13.1 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±10.9%: inside the band · S&P +0.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $265.00 | — | +1.1% | 5/10 | Momentum cools as valuation gravity emerges |
| 3 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $260.00 | — | -0.8% | 5/10 | Drift toward anchored-PE fair value zone |
| 4 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $256.00 | — | -2.4% | 4/10 | Value lens pressure, no earnings catalyst nearby |
| 5 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $252.00 | — | -3.9% | 4/10 | Composite fair value gravity continues pulling lower |
| 6 months | Mar 5, 2027 | $250.00 | — | -4.6% | 4/10 | Settles between fair value and current, mild fade |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $259.04 (-1.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $262.19 |
| Composite fair value | $216.52 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $228.43 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $261.91 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $205.00 |
| Value net score | -66 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +66 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 40.6% 3m 37.7% 6m 41.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.75 3m 1.24 5m 1.54 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -6.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | RGLD-20260905-023001-e799 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-RGLD-20260905-024707-35ee |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-RGLD-20260905-024707-35ee |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-RGLD-20260905-024707-35ee |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-RGLD-20260905-024707-35ee |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | RGLD-20260905-023001-e799 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | RGLD-20260905-023001-e799 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $262.19 | $250.00 | -4.6% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.