RIVN
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Rivian Automotive Inc. Class A Common Stock
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers
Made on
Sep 4, 2026
Price at call
$15.68
6-month call
Bear -33.0%
Target by Mar 2027
$10.50
Great value below
$9.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-33.0% to $10.50
Predicted High
$15.95
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$10.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-33.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 4, 2026 1:06 pm
Bear
RIVN trends lower to
$10.50
(-33.0% from $15.68)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisRIVN is a high-beta cash-burner with awful quality/value/sentiment scores and a fresh CFO exit; a risk-on tape can buoy it briefly but value gravity toward the sub-9 attractive zone dominates over months absent a catalyst.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $18 on volume, or a strategic partnership/capital raise removing dilution overhang, would falsify the fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $15.68 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 4, 2026 | — | $15.68 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 18, 2026 | $13.26–$18.10 typical range · internal point $15.95 | — | ±15.4% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime supports high-beta bounce near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $15.40 on Sep 17, 2026 = -1.8% vs the call (predicted +1.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.5 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±15.4%: inside the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 4, 2026 | $12.17–$19.19 typical range · internal point $15.20 | — | ±22.4% | 5/10 | CFO exit overhang reasserts as momentum fades |
| What actually happened: closed $14.30 on Oct 2, 2026 = -8.8% vs the call (predicted -3.1%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 5.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±22.4%: inside the band · S&P +0.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $13.90 | — | -11.4% | 5/10 | Cash-burn narrative and dilution scars weigh |
| 3 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $12.60 | — | -19.6% | 5/10 | Year-end tax-loss selling on weak name |
| 4 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $11.80 | — | -24.7% | 4/10 | Value lens pulls toward sub-9 attractive zone |
| 5 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $11.20 | — | -28.6% | 4/10 | Quality drag persists absent catalyst |
| 6 months | Mar 4, 2027 | $10.50 | — | -33.0% | 3/10 | Convergence toward value-attractive band continues |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 6 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
No positive earnings — traditional DCF and EPV are not applicable
-
Note
Valuation is inherently speculative — based on revenue multiples and growth assumptions
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $15.68 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -76 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -71 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 46.5% 3m 77.5% 6m 66.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.74 3m 2.71 5m 2.44 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 4.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | RIVN-20260904-020001-7595 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-RIVN-20260904-033529-c9b0 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-RIVN-20260904-033529-c9b0 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-RIVN-20260904-033529-c9b0 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-RIVN-20260904-033529-c9b0 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | RIVN-20260904-020001-7595 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | RIVN-20260904-020001-7595 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $15.68 | $10.50 | -33.0% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.