Made on
Aug 26, 2026
Price at call
$175.96
6-month call
Bear -9.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$160.00
Great value below
$145.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-9.1% to $160.00
Predicted High
$176.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$160.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-9.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 26, 2026 1:16 pm
Bear
RJF trends lower to
$160.00
(-9.1% from $175.96)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisRJF trades well above composite fair value but quality is solid, sentiment is only mildly negative, and the tape is risk-on with low beta. Expect a mild grind lower as valuation gravity slowly asserts, but nothing like a full convergence to fair value in six months.
Invalidated ifA break above $185 on strong volume or a beat-and-raise catalyst would falsify; conversely a drop below $150 accelerates the thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $175.96 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 26, 2026 | — | $175.96 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 9, 2026 | $168.06–$183.86 typical range · internal point $176.50 | — | ±4.5% | 7/10 | Risk-on regime, low beta, no near catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $176.55 on Sep 8, 2026 = +0.3% vs the call (predicted +0.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.0 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±4.5%: inside the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 26, 2026 | $164.51–$187.41 typical range · internal point $174.00 | — | ±6.5% | 6/10 | Mild valuation drag begins, tape still supportive |
| What actually happened: closed $159.87 on Sep 25, 2026 = -9.1% vs the call (predicted -1.1%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 8.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.5%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.9% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 26, 2026 | $171.00 | — | -2.8% | 5/10 | Earnings season chatter, stretched multiple weighs |
| 3 months | Nov 26, 2026 | $168.00 | — | -4.5% | 5/10 | Value gravity accumulates, sentiment softens |
| 4 months | Dec 26, 2026 | $165.00 | — | -6.2% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning trims extended winners |
| 5 months | Jan 26, 2027 | $162.00 | — | -7.9% | 4/10 | January reallocation away from pricey financials |
| 6 months | Feb 26, 2027 | $160.00 | — | -9.1% | 4/10 | Slow drift toward anchored-PE, quality cushions |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $152.48 (-13.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Cash flow quality is poor — reported earnings may not reflect reality
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $175.96 |
| Composite fair value | $61.27 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $58.35 |
| DCF fair value | $16.90 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $150.00 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $145.00 |
| Value net score | -57 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +61 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 18.3% 3m 22.5% 6m 24.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.61 3m 0.25 5m 0.55 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 11.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | RJF-20260826-043001-abb8 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-RJF-20260826-045154-b5e3 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-RJF-20260826-045154-b5e3 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-RJF-20260826-045154-b5e3 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-RJF-20260826-045154-b5e3 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | RJF-20260826-043001-abb8 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $175.96 | $160.00 | -9.1% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.