Made on
Jul 21, 2026
Price at call
$235.78
6-month call
Bear -8.8%
Target by Jan 2027
$215.00
Great value below
$175.00
Model
v0.4.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.8% to $215.00
Predicted High
$236.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$215.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 21, 2026 8:52 am
Bear
ROST trends lower to
$215.00
(-8.8% from $235.78)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisROST trades well above every fair-value anchor but quality is pristine and momentum plus off-price narrative keep near-term downside gentle; over six months value gravity and a rich-multiple whisper pull the price modestly lower toward the deterministic baseline, with an earnings print in the window as the main bend.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $250 on strong Q3 comps, or conversely a break below $205 on a guide-down, would falsify this gently declining path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $235.78 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 21, 2026 | — | $235.78 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 4, 2026 | $220.74–$250.82 typical range · internal point $236.50 | — | ±6.4% | 7/10 | Neutral tape, low beta, momentum still positive near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $252.91 on Aug 3, 2026 = +7.3% vs the call (predicted +0.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 7.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.4%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -0.3% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 21, 2026 | $213.98–$257.58 typical range · internal point $234.00 | — | ±9.2% | 6/10 | Drift as rich valuation whisper offsets narrative |
| What actually happened: closed $228.99 on Aug 20, 2026 = -2.9% vs the call (predicted -0.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.1 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±9.2%: inside the band · S&P +1.8% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 21, 2026 | $230.00 | — | -2.5% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, mild multiple compression |
| 3 months | Oct 21, 2026 | $225.00 | — | -4.6% | 4/10 | Q3 print in-line but guide cautious on consumer |
| 4 months | Nov 21, 2026 | $221.00 | — | -6.3% | 4/10 | Value gravity dominates, holiday setup mixed |
| 5 months | Dec 21, 2026 | $218.00 | — | -7.5% | 4/10 | Year-end tax selling in extended winners |
| 6 months | Jan 21, 2027 | $215.00 | — | -8.8% | 4/10 | Convergence toward baseline as premium slowly bleeds |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $214.11 (-9.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.4.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $235.78 |
| Composite fair value | $94.29 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $103.46 |
| DCF fair value | $102.90 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $175.00 |
| Value net score | -68 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +100 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 32.3% 3m 32.0% 6m 28.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.35 3m 0.29 5m 0.66 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 21.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.4.0
#d5854b4b2216 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ROST-20260721-030001-6bc5 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-ROST-20260721-083846-0fba |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-ROST-20260721-083846-0fba |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-ROST-20260721-083846-0fba |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-ROST-20260721-083846-0fba |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ROST-20260721-030001-6bc5 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ROST-20260721-030001-6bc5 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | v0.4.0 | Bear | $235.78 | $215.00 | -8.8% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.4.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.