Made on
Aug 21, 2026
Price at call
$78.80
6-month call
Bull +12.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$88.80
Great value below
$70.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+12.7% to $88.80
Predicted High
$88.80
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$79.10
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 21, 2026 1:06 pm
Bull
SLF trends higher to
$88.80
(+12.7% from $78.80)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisSLF trades at a meaningful discount to composite fair value ~$100 with quality compounder characteristics, but neutral sentiment and no imminent catalyst mean convergence is gradual. Low beta and strong earnings track record support a steady drift higher toward the deterministic baseline near $89 over 6 months.
Invalidated ifBreak below $74 support or a broad regime shift to risk-off would invalidate the gradual convergence thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $78.80 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 21, 2026 | — | $78.80 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 4, 2026 | $76.30–$81.30 typical range · internal point $79.10 | — | ±3.2% | 7/10 | Low-vol drift, neutral tape, no catalyst near-term |
| 1 month | Sep 21, 2026 | $75.17–$82.43 typical range · internal point $79.80 | — | ±4.6% | 6/10 | Sideways action continues absent sentiment push |
| 2 months | Oct 21, 2026 | $81.50 | — | +3.4% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaching, value gravity starts pulling |
| 3 months | Nov 21, 2026 | $83.80 | — | +6.3% | 5/10 | Earnings beat streak likely extends, modest rerate |
| 4 months | Dec 21, 2026 | $85.50 | — | +8.5% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning into quality compounders |
| 5 months | Jan 21, 2027 | $87.20 | — | +10.7% | 4/10 | January flows favor defensive dividend payers |
| 6 months | Feb 21, 2027 | $88.80 | — | +12.7% | 4/10 | Gradual convergence toward composite fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $89.39 (+13.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $78.80 |
| Composite fair value | $100.51 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $101.82 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $100.51 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $70.00 |
| Value net score | +22 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +46 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 16.2% 3m 15.9% 6m 18.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.43 3m 0.17 5m 0.48 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 19.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | SLF-20260820-200802-3cec |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-SLF-20260820-214200-8649 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-SLF-20260820-214200-8649 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-SLF-20260820-214200-8649 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-SLF-20260820-214200-8649 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | SLF-20260820-200802-3cec |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | SLF-20260820-200802-3cec |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $78.80 | $88.80 | +12.7% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $82.25 | $76.80 | -6.6% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.