Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$43.08
6-month call
Bull +19.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$51.25
Great value below
$45.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+19.0% to $51.25
Predicted High
$51.25
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$43.35
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 1:02 am
Bull
SNY trends higher to
$51.25
(+19.0% from $43.08)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisSNY trades at a deep discount to composite fair value near $120 with a beat-and-raise cadence and defensive low-beta profile, but the fallen-angel narrative and neutral regime cap re-rating speed. Expect a gradual grind higher from the attractive-below-$45 zone, not a snap to fair value.
Invalidated ifA break below $40 on heavy volume or a pipeline/regulatory setback that resets the earnings trajectory would falsify this path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $43.08 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $43.08 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $40.56–$45.60 typical range · internal point $43.35 | — | ±5.9% | 6/10 | Low beta anchors price near current in neutral tape |
| What actually happened: closed $43.71 on Aug 14, 2026 = +1.5% vs the call (predicted +0.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.8 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±5.9%: inside the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $39.42–$46.74 typical range · internal point $43.90 | — | ±8.5% | 6/10 | Value buyers accumulate below $45 threshold |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $45.10 | — | +4.7% | 5/10 | Defensive bid strengthens into autumn risk-off |
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $46.75 | — | +8.5% | 5/10 | Q3 print continues beat cadence, narrative shifts |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $48.20 | — | +11.9% | 4/10 | Year-end rotation into quality-value defensives |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $49.50 | — | +14.9% | 4/10 | Fair-value gravity accelerates as sentiment thaws |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $51.25 | — | +19.0% | 3/10 | Gradual re-rating toward mid-tier valuation anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $72.31 (+67.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $43.08 |
| Composite fair value | $119.69 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $118.67 |
| DCF fair value | $127.93 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $150.33 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $45.00 |
| Value net score | +25 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +6 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 29.3% 3m 29.4% 6m 26.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.45 3m 0.19 5m 0.33 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -6.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | SNY-20260730-175301-75fd |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-SNY-20260730-182641-f7c4 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-SNY-20260730-182641-f7c4 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-SNY-20260730-182641-f7c4 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-SNY-20260730-182641-f7c4 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | SNY-20260730-175301-75fd |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | SNY-20260730-175301-75fd |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.