Made on
Sep 2, 2026
Price at call
$46.17
6-month call
Bear -18.8%
Target by Mar 2027
$37.50
Great value below
$34.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-18.8% to $37.50
Predicted High
$45.60
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$37.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-18.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 2, 2026 1:07 pm
Bear
SW trends lower to
$37.50
(-18.8% from $46.17)
by Mar 2027.
decay
ThesisSW trades well above every fair-value anchor with weak sentiment, weak quality, and a neutral tape; drift lower toward the anchored-PE zone is the base case, but the 6-month price behaviour has been sticky flat, so decay is gradual rather than a cliff.
Invalidated ifA sustained close above $50 on volume, or a positive earnings pre-announcement, would falsify the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $46.17 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 2, 2026 | — | $46.17 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 16, 2026 | $41.81–$50.53 typical range · internal point $45.60 | — | ±9.4% | 6/10 | Neutral tape, no catalyst, mild sentiment drag |
| 1 month | Oct 2, 2026 | $39.86–$52.48 typical range · internal point $44.80 | — | ±13.7% | 6/10 | Value gravity begins as no catalyst emerges |
| 2 months | Nov 2, 2026 | $43.20 | — | -6.4% | 5/10 | Q3 print risk with only 2 of 5 beats |
| 3 months | Dec 2, 2026 | $41.50 | — | -10.1% | 5/10 | Post-earnings drift toward anchored-PE fair value |
| 4 months | Jan 2, 2027 | $40.20 | — | -12.9% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, weak quality bleeds premium |
| 5 months | Feb 2, 2027 | $38.80 | — | -16.0% | 4/10 | Continued convergence toward bear scenario $34.56 |
| 6 months | Mar 2, 2027 | $37.50 | — | -18.8% | 3/10 | Approaches deterministic endpoint near anchored-PE |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $36.29 (-21.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Degraded
[critical] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $46.17 |
| Composite fair value | $20.72 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $19.04 |
| DCF fair value | $16.04 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $35.70 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $34.00 |
| Value net score | -44 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -30 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 35.9% 3m 47.4% 6m 46.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.11 3m 1.63 5m 1.75 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 0.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | SW-20260902-033001-612a |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-SW-20260902-042540-3818 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-SW-20260902-042540-3818 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-SW-20260902-042540-3818 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-SW-20260902-042540-3818 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | SW-20260902-033001-612a |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | SW-20260902-033001-612a |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $46.17 | $37.50 | -18.8% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.