Made on
Sep 2, 2026
Price at call
$78.41
6-month call
Bull +37.7%
Target by Mar 2027
$108.00
Great value below
$68.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+37.7% to $108.00
Predicted High
$108.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$78.90
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 2, 2026 1:05 pm
Bull
SYF trends higher to
$108.00
(+37.7% from $78.41)
by Mar 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisSYF trades at a steep discount to composite fair value near $198 with quality earnings beats, but neutral tape and mild credit overhang cap near-term upside. Expect gradual re-rating toward the deterministic baseline as sentiment thaws, not a straight line to fair value.
Invalidated ifA break below $68 on credit-cycle fears or a miss on next earnings would invalidate the re-rating path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $78.41 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 2, 2026 | — | $78.41 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 16, 2026 | $72.84–$83.98 typical range · internal point $78.90 | — | ±7.1% | 7/10 | Neutral regime, drift near current with mild bid |
| What actually happened: closed $76.06 on Sep 15, 2026 = -3.0% vs the call (predicted +0.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.6 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±7.1%: inside the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 2, 2026 | $70.34–$86.48 typical range · internal point $80.50 | — | ±10.3% | 6/10 | Sentiment stabilizes, value buyers step in gradually |
| What actually happened: closed $71.51 on Oct 1, 2026 = -8.8% vs the call (predicted +2.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 11.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±10.3%: inside the band · S&P +0.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Nov 2, 2026 | $84.00 | — | +7.1% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, beat streak supports bid |
| 3 months | Dec 2, 2026 | $89.00 | — | +13.5% | 5/10 | Earnings beat catalyst lifts re-rating narrative |
| 4 months | Jan 2, 2027 | $95.00 | — | +21.2% | 4/10 | Post-earnings drift, discount to fair value narrows |
| 5 months | Feb 2, 2027 | $102.00 | — | +30.1% | 4/10 | Value convergence continues, credit fears fade |
| 6 months | Mar 2, 2027 | $108.00 | — | +37.7% | 3/10 | Trending toward baseline but short of $124 endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $124.40 (+58.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $78.41 |
| Composite fair value | $198.58 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $180.11 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $198.58 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $68.00 |
| Value net score | +32 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +36 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 23.3% 3m 35.7% 6m 31.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.57 3m 1.17 5m 1.26 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 11.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | SYF-20260902-023001-f8e0 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-SYF-20260902-034159-da82 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-SYF-20260902-034159-da82 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-SYF-20260902-034159-da82 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-SYF-20260902-034159-da82 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | SYF-20260902-023001-f8e0 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | SYF-20260902-023001-f8e0 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $78.41 | $108.00 | +37.7% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.