Made on
Aug 18, 2026
Price at call
$7.19
6-month call
Bull +22.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$8.80
Great value below
$6.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+22.4% to $8.80
Predicted High
$8.80
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$7.55
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 18, 2026 3:08 am
Bull
TASK trends higher to
$8.80
(+22.4% from $7.19)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisPost-Q2 blowout rehabilitates TASK's fallen-angel narrative in a risk-on tape, driving a momentum-led rally over the first 6-8 weeks; value gravity toward the $9-10 fair-value zone then takes over more gradually, with modest consolidation late as the initial sentiment tailwind fades.
Invalidated ifA close below $6.40 (undercutting post-earnings support) or regime flip to risk-off would falsify the up-drift; failure to hold $8 by m3 signals stall.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $7.19 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 18, 2026 | — | $7.19 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 1, 2026 | $6.15–$8.23 typical range · internal point $7.55 | — | ±14.5% | 7/10 | Post-beat momentum plus risk-on tape lift near-term |
| 1 month | Sep 18, 2026 | $5.68–$8.70 typical range · internal point $7.85 | — | ±21.0% | 6/10 | Continued sentiment rehab, no earnings catalyst risk |
| 2 months | Oct 18, 2026 | $8.20 | — | +14.0% | 6/10 | Value gap closure accelerates toward baseline path |
| 3 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $8.55 | — | +18.9% | 5/10 | Approaching fair-value zone, next print looms |
| 4 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $8.75 | — | +21.7% | 5/10 | Year-end positioning, quality/value crossover buyers |
| 5 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $8.60 | — | +19.6% | 4/10 | Sentiment tailwind fades, consolidation near anchor |
| 6 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $8.80 | — | +22.4% | 4/10 | Grinds toward signal-adjusted fair value $8.97 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $8.32 (+15.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $7.19 |
| Composite fair value | $9.60 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $8.97 |
| DCF fair value | $10.64 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $6.00 |
| Value net score | +17 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +25 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 100.8% 3m 72.9% 6m 91.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.02 3m 0.73 5m 2.05 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -27.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 2, 2026 | 15d behind | TASK-20260802-132328-d71c |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-TASK-20260817-124017-def2 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-TASK-20260817-124017-def2 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-TASK-20260817-124017-def2 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-TASK-20260817-124017-def2 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | TASK-20260802-132328-d71c |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | TASK-20260802-132328-d71c |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $7.19 | $8.80 | +22.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.