TDY
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Teledyne Technologies Incorporated
Technology · Scientific & Technical Instruments
Made on
Aug 27, 2026
Price at call
$626.44
6-month call
Bear -7.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$580.00
Great value below
$430.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-7.4% to $580.00
Predicted High
$638.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$580.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-7.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 27, 2026 1:22 pm
Bear
TDY trends lower to
$580.00
(-7.4% from $626.44)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisTDY trades far above composite fair value but defense/AI-infrastructure narrative plus a risk-on regime keep momentum firm near term. Expect modest drift higher into the October print, then value gravity and stretched-tape fatigue pull it back toward the deterministic baseline over 6 months.
Invalidated ifA clean earnings beat with raised guide holding TDY above $660, or a break below $570 pre-earnings, would falsify this path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $626.44 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 27, 2026 | — | $626.44 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 10, 2026 | $593.80–$659.08 typical range · internal point $632.00 | — | ±5.2% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and defense narrative sustain drift |
| What actually happened: closed $595.23 on Sep 9, 2026 = -5.0% vs the call (predicted +0.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.9 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±5.2%: inside the band · S&P -1.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 27, 2026 | $579.15–$673.73 typical range · internal point $638.00 | — | ±7.5% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, sentiment tailwind persists |
| What actually happened: closed $614.15 on Sep 25, 2026 = -2.0% vs the call (predicted +1.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.8 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±7.5%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 27, 2026 | $624.00 | — | -0.4% | 4/10 | Oct 18 print lands mixed, guide caps upside |
| 3 months | Nov 27, 2026 | $610.00 | — | -2.6% | 5/10 | Post-earnings digestion, valuation concerns resurface |
| 4 months | Dec 27, 2026 | $598.00 | — | -4.5% | 4/10 | Year-end rebalancing trims stretched winners |
| 5 months | Jan 27, 2027 | $588.00 | — | -6.1% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward DCF anchor accelerates |
| 6 months | Feb 27, 2027 | $580.00 | — | -7.4% | 4/10 | Converges near deterministic baseline as narrative cools |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $577.86 (-7.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $626.44 |
| Composite fair value | $288.15 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $299.75 |
| DCF fair value | $352.76 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $430.00 |
| Value net score | -78 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +51 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 25.1% 3m 26.2% 6m 26.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.51 3m 1.24 5m 1.26 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -6.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | TDY-20260827-040001-bb03 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-TDY-20260827-063354-455a |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-TDY-20260827-063354-455a |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-TDY-20260827-063354-455a |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-TDY-20260827-063354-455a |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | TDY-20260827-040001-bb03 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | TDY-20260827-040001-bb03 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $626.44 | $580.00 | -7.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.