Made on
Aug 12, 2026
Price at call
$52.31
6-month call
Bull +18.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$62.00
Great value below
$46.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+18.5% to $62.00
Predicted High
$62.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$52.80
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 12, 2026 12:57 am
Bull
TFC trends higher to
$62.00
(+18.5% from $52.31)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisTFC trades at a deep discount to composite fair value ($139) but carries genuine CRE/deposit overhangs and a fallen-angel narrative that suppress rerating speed. Risk-on tape and a likely Q3 beat drive gradual recovery, but value gravity to $82 baseline is unrealistic in six months; expect a measured grind higher with an earnings-driven inflection.
Invalidated ifBreak below $46 on CRE loss disclosure or deposit flight; or failure to hold $50 post-Q3 earnings would falsify the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $52.31 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 12, 2026 | — | $52.31 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 26, 2026 | $49.60–$55.02 typical range · internal point $52.80 | — | ±5.2% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape supports drift; low beta limits move |
| 1 month | Sep 12, 2026 | $48.38–$56.24 typical range · internal point $53.40 | — | ±7.5% | 6/10 | Regional bank sentiment stable pre-earnings positioning |
| 2 months | Oct 12, 2026 | $54.20 | — | +3.6% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings buildup as beat streak recognized |
| 3 months | Nov 12, 2026 | $57.50 | — | +9.9% | 5/10 | Oct 15 earnings beat drives rerating step |
| 4 months | Dec 12, 2026 | $59.00 | — | +12.8% | 4/10 | Post-earnings drift higher on quality reappraisal |
| 5 months | Jan 12, 2027 | $60.50 | — | +15.7% | 4/10 | Value gravity slowly pulls toward fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 12, 2027 | $62.00 | — | +18.5% | 3/10 | Continued rerating but CRE overhang caps upside |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $82.12 (+57.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $52.31 |
| Composite fair value | $139.15 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $131.22 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $139.15 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $46.00 |
| Value net score | -2 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +14 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 17.8% 3m 26.0% 6m 26.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.50 3m 0.13 5m 0.48 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -4.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | TFC-20260812-000902-8004 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-TFC-20260812-003246-168d |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-TFC-20260812-003246-168d |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-TFC-20260812-003246-168d |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-TFC-20260812-003246-168d |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | TFC-20260812-000902-8004 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $52.31 | $62.00 | +18.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 17, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.