Made on
Aug 5, 2026
Price at call
$46.26
6-month call
Bear -12.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$40.50
Great value below
$34.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-12.5% to $40.50
Predicted High
$47.20
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$40.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-12.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 5, 2026 2:40 am
Bear
TGLS trends lower to
$40.50
(-12.5% from $46.26)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisTGLS trades well above composite fair value ($33.65) with negative sentiment (-51) and forensic concerns; near-term risk-on regime and beta 1.33 may buoy shares briefly, but value gravity and a fragile late-cycle housing narrative should drag it lower over the 6-month window toward the low-40s, undershooting the deterministic baseline modestly.
Invalidated ifA decisive close above $52 on strong volume or a beat-and-raise print would invalidate; conversely a break below $38 accelerates the fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $46.26 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 5, 2026 | — | $46.26 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 19, 2026 | $42.13–$50.39 typical range · internal point $46.90 | — | ±8.9% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and high beta lift near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $40.83 on Aug 19, 2026 = -11.7% vs the call (predicted +1.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 13.1 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.9%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 5, 2026 | $40.28–$52.24 typical range · internal point $47.20 | — | ±12.9% | 5/10 | Momentum persists, no catalyst to break narrative |
| 2 months | Oct 5, 2026 | $45.30 | — | -2.1% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins as sentiment weighs |
| 3 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $43.50 | — | -6.0% | 6/10 | Earnings window pressures fragile housing story |
| 4 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $42.00 | — | -9.2% | 6/10 | Late-cycle housing concerns reassert |
| 5 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $41.20 | — | -10.9% | 5/10 | Drift toward anchor value continues |
| 6 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $40.50 | — | -12.5% | 4/10 | Below deterministic baseline as forensic drag lingers |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $43.01 (-7.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $46.26 |
| Composite fair value | $33.65 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $32.68 |
| DCF fair value | $18.50 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $66.25 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $34.00 |
| Value net score | -71 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +36 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 47.0% 3m 44.8% 6m 43.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.14 3m 1.33 5m 1.20 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -4.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | TGLS-20260803-164946-52c7 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TGLS-20260803-175115-3b0e |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TGLS-20260803-175115-3b0e |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TGLS-20260803-175115-3b0e |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TGLS-20260803-175115-3b0e |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | TGLS-20260803-164946-52c7 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | TGLS-20260803-164946-52c7 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $46.26 | $40.50 | -12.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.