Made on
Aug 26, 2026
Price at call
$225.53
6-month call
Bear -11.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$200.00
Great value below
$185.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-11.3% to $200.00
Predicted High
$238.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$200.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-11.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 26, 2026 1:13 pm
Bear
TWLO trends lower to
$200.00
(-11.3% from $225.53)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisTWLO is riding an earnings-beat rally and AI-narrative rehabilitation in a risk-on tape, but a 90% six-month run and deeply negative value lens (fair value far below current) argue for continued momentum near-term that fades into consolidation and mild mean-reversion as value gravity reasserts.
Invalidated ifA break below $185 on rising volume, or a regime flip to risk-off, would invalidate the near-term extension and accelerate the fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $225.53 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 26, 2026 | — | $225.53 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 9, 2026 | $194.25–$256.81 typical range · internal point $234.00 | — | ±13.9% | 7/10 | Momentum and risk-on tape extend post-beat rally |
| What actually happened: closed $225.89 on Sep 8, 2026 = +0.2% vs the call (predicted +3.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.6 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±13.9%: inside the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 26, 2026 | $180.21–$270.85 typical range · internal point $238.00 | — | ±20.1% | 6/10 | AI narrative and buying flows push marginal high |
| What actually happened: closed $275.80 on Sep 25, 2026 = +22.3% vs the call (predicted +5.5%) · direction HIT (called up, was up) · off by 16.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±20.1%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.9% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 26, 2026 | $230.00 | — | +2.0% | 5/10 | Rally stalls, profit-taking begins near resistance |
| 3 months | Nov 26, 2026 | $218.00 | — | -3.3% | 5/10 | Next earnings print raises bar, mild derisking |
| 4 months | Dec 26, 2026 | $212.00 | — | -6.0% | 4/10 | Year-end rotation out of high-beta winners |
| 5 months | Jan 26, 2027 | $205.00 | — | -9.1% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward attractive-below level |
| 6 months | Feb 26, 2027 | $200.00 | — | -11.3% | 3/10 | Sentiment cools, fair-value gap weighs on tape |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 3 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $225.53 |
| Composite fair value | $-10.11 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $-11.30 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -42 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +47 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 85.7% 3m 69.6% 6m 64.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.51 3m 0.96 5m 1.05 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 90.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | TWLO-20260826-033001-b4ba |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-TWLO-20260826-035535-33ce |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-TWLO-20260826-035535-33ce |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-TWLO-20260826-035535-33ce |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-TWLO-20260826-035535-33ce |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | TWLO-20260826-033001-b4ba |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | TWLO-20260826-033001-b4ba |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $225.53 | $200.00 | -11.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.