UHS
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Universal Health Services Inc. Class B Common Stock
Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Made on
Aug 26, 2026
Price at call
$179.16
6-month call
Bull +9.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$195.50
Great value below
$150.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+9.1% to $195.50
Predicted High
$195.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$180.50
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 26, 2026 1:04 pm
Bull
UHS trends higher to
$195.50
(+9.1% from $179.16)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisUHS is oversold (-22% trailing 6m) but valuation anchors bracket current price closely, with DCF at $204 pulling higher over months. Risk-on regime and steady-compounder narrative support gradual mean reversion toward fair value, not a sharp rally.
Invalidated ifBreak below $165 on volume or a guide-down would falsify the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $179.16 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 26, 2026 | — | $179.16 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 9, 2026 | $167.78–$190.54 typical range · internal point $180.50 | — | ±6.4% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime supports mild bounce from oversold levels |
| What actually happened: closed $171.89 on Sep 8, 2026 = -4.1% vs the call (predicted +0.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.8 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±6.4%: inside the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 26, 2026 | $162.67–$195.65 typical range · internal point $182.75 | — | ±9.2% | 6/10 | Drift higher toward composite fair value |
| What actually happened: closed $178.86 on Sep 25, 2026 = -0.2% vs the call (predicted +2.0%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.2 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±9.2%: inside the band · S&P +0.9% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 26, 2026 | $185.50 | — | +3.5% | 5/10 | Value gravity pulls toward signal-adjusted anchor |
| 3 months | Nov 26, 2026 | $188.00 | — | +4.9% | 5/10 | Steady compounder narrative reasserts, baseline endpoint |
| 4 months | Dec 26, 2026 | $190.50 | — | +6.3% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, quality bid on healthcare |
| 5 months | Jan 26, 2027 | $193.00 | — | +7.7% | 4/10 | Q4 earnings anticipation, DCF gravity strengthens |
| 6 months | Feb 26, 2027 | $195.50 | — | +9.1% | 3/10 | Continued convergence toward DCF fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $188.67 (+5.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $179.16 |
| Composite fair value | $174.78 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $186.67 |
| DCF fair value | $204.72 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $150.00 |
| Value net score | -35 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +40 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 25.3% 3m 31.9% 6m 36.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.36 3m -0.25 5m 0.04 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -22.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | 22d behind | UHS-20260803-124447-f0e2 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-UHS-20260825-180356-8313 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-UHS-20260825-180356-8313 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-UHS-20260825-180356-8313 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-UHS-20260825-180356-8313 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | UHS-20260825-010001-8182 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | UHS-20260825-010001-8182 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
5 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $179.16 | $195.50 | +9.1% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $176.19 | $198.50 | +12.7% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 20, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $173.28 | $197.50 | +14.0% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 13, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $172.45 | $197.00 | +14.2% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $169.04 | $203.00 | +20.1% | Feb 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.