Made on
Jul 31, 2026
Price at call
$421.47
6-month call
Neutral -2.7%
Target by Jan 2027
$410.00
Great value below
$340.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-2.7% to $410.00
Predicted High
$430.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$410.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-2.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 31, 2026 12:49 am
Neutral
UNH trends range-bound to
$410.00
(-2.7% from $421.47)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisUNH has climbed out of its sentiment hole with a 43% six-month rally, but stretched valuation versus signal-adjusted fair value near $338 and net-negative value/quality scores create gravity. Expect modest continuation on sentiment repair, then a mild fade toward composite fair value as political overhang and rich multiples reassert.
Invalidated ifA break above $460 on renewed analyst upgrades, or a drop below $380 signaling sentiment reversal, would falsify this path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $421.47 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 31, 2026 | — | $421.47 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 14, 2026 | $400.16–$442.78 typical range · internal point $425.50 | — | ±5.1% | 6/10 | Sentiment tailwind and low beta support modest drift up |
| What actually happened: closed $399.06 on Aug 13, 2026 = -5.3% vs the call (predicted +1.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 6.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±5.1%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 31, 2026 | $390.59–$452.35 typical range · internal point $430.00 | — | ±7.3% | 6/10 | Analyst target lifts continue, neutral regime holds |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $428.00 | — | +1.5% | 5/10 | Momentum stalls near composite fair value |
| 3 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $422.00 | — | +0.1% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward anchor |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $418.00 | — | -0.8% | 4/10 | Political overhang and rich multiple weigh |
| 5 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $414.00 | — | -1.8% | 4/10 | Convergence toward composite fair value |
| 6 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $410.00 | — | -2.7% | 3/10 | Signal-adjusted fair value drag persists into 2027 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $427.95 (+1.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] AI analysis identifies strong headwinds — multiple forces working against this stock
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $421.47 |
| Composite fair value | $414.05 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $337.60 |
| DCF fair value | $562.35 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $201.10 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $340.00 |
| Value net score | -60 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -31 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 26.0% 3m 25.4% 6m 30.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.37 3m 0.12 5m 0.39 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 43.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | UNH-20260731-001024-e1fe |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-UNH-20260731-003545-e51e |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-UNH-20260731-003545-e51e |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-UNH-20260731-003545-e51e |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-UNH-20260731-003545-e51e |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | UNH-20260731-001024-e1fe |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | UNH-20260731-001024-e1fe |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $421.47 | $410.00 | -2.7% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 1, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.