Made on
Aug 21, 2026
Price at call
$92.61
6-month call
Bear -8.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$85.20
Great value below
$60.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.0% to $85.20
Predicted High
$94.20
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$85.20
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 21, 2026 1:09 pm
Bear
VIK trends lower to
$85.20
(-8.0% from $92.61)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisVIK carries fresh Q2 beat momentum and record 2027 bookings, which should keep the tape firm near-term despite a rich valuation gap to fair value near $50. Over months, without a new catalyst and with value gravity plus a neutral regime, the stock drifts lower toward the deterministic baseline in the mid-$80s.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $100 on continued booking upgrades, or a break below $80 on demand softening, would falsify the drift path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $92.61 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 21, 2026 | — | $92.61 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 4, 2026 | $85.86–$99.36 typical range · internal point $93.80 | — | ±7.3% | 6/10 | Post-beat momentum and bookings narrative carry tape |
| 1 month | Sep 21, 2026 | $82.83–$102.39 typical range · internal point $94.20 | — | ±10.6% | 5/10 | Sentiment tailwind persists absent fresh catalyst |
| 2 months | Oct 21, 2026 | $92.00 | — | -0.7% | 5/10 | Momentum fades as attention rotates elsewhere |
| 3 months | Nov 21, 2026 | $89.50 | — | -3.4% | 4/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 21, 2026 | $87.80 | — | -5.2% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, rich multiple weighs |
| 5 months | Jan 21, 2027 | $86.00 | — | -7.1% | 4/10 | Pre-print drift, no near catalyst on calendar |
| 6 months | Feb 21, 2027 | $85.20 | — | -8.0% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $85.08 (-8.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $92.61 |
| Composite fair value | $49.68 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $52.06 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $67.60 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $60.00 |
| Value net score | -75 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +36 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 45.3% 3m 36.6% 6m 45.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.01 3m 0.93 5m 1.80 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 17.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | VIK-20260821-010256-190c |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-VIK-20260821-012248-c5c4 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-VIK-20260821-012248-c5c4 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-VIK-20260821-012248-c5c4 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-VIK-20260821-012248-c5c4 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | VIK-20260821-010256-190c |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | VIK-20260821-010256-190c |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $92.61 | $85.20 | -8.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.