Made on
Aug 23, 2026
Price at call
$169.42
6-month call
Bear -6.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$157.80
Great value below
$120.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-6.9% to $157.80
Predicted High
$168.90
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$157.80
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-6.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 23, 2026 1:12 pm
Bear
WCN trends lower to
$157.80
(-6.9% from $169.42)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisWCN trades well above every fair-value anchor but its defensive, low-beta compounder profile and monopoly-platform narrative keep drawdowns shallow in a risk-on tape. Expect a slow drift lower toward the deterministic baseline as valuation gravity nudges price down, with no near-term catalyst to force a violent repricing.
Invalidated ifA break above $178 on volume or a beat-and-raise print would invalidate; conversely a break below $155 accelerates the path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $169.42 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 23, 2026 | — | $169.42 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 6, 2026 | $161.83–$177.01 typical range · internal point $168.90 | — | ±4.5% | 7/10 | Low beta, no catalyst, mild drift in risk-on tape |
| What actually happened: closed $164.87 on Sep 4, 2026 = -2.7% vs the call (predicted -0.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.4 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±4.5%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 23, 2026 | $158.42–$180.42 typical range · internal point $167.50 | — | ±6.5% | 6/10 | Valuation drag accumulates absent fresh buying |
| 2 months | Oct 23, 2026 | $165.20 | — | -2.5% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, positioning trims into event |
| 3 months | Nov 23, 2026 | $163.80 | — | -3.3% | 5/10 | Post-earnings digestion, guide likely in-line not accretive |
| 4 months | Dec 23, 2026 | $161.00 | — | -5.0% | 5/10 | Year-end tax-loss dynamics absent, but no rerating catalyst |
| 5 months | Jan 23, 2027 | $159.50 | — | -5.9% | 4/10 | January rebalancing rotates from expensive defensives |
| 6 months | Feb 23, 2027 | $157.80 | — | -6.9% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline as narrative cools |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $157.35 (-7.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $169.42 |
| Composite fair value | $84.79 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $83.55 |
| DCF fair value | $101.72 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $120.00 |
| Value net score | -78 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +70 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 19.7% 3m 22.5% 6m 24.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.83 3m -0.72 5m -0.55 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 3.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | WCN-20260822-152337-0505 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-WCN-20260822-153958-199f |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-WCN-20260822-153958-199f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-WCN-20260822-153958-199f |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-WCN-20260822-153958-199f |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 23, 2026 | freshest | WCN-20260822-152337-0505 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 23, 2026 | freshest | WCN-20260822-152337-0505 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $169.42 | $157.80 | -6.9% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $169.61 | $161.00 | -5.1% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.