Made on
Aug 24, 2026
Price at call
$107.42
6-month call
Bear -8.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$98.50
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.3% to $98.50
Predicted High
$107.10
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$98.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 24, 2026 1:11 pm
Bear
WEC trends lower to
$98.50
(-8.3% from $107.42)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisWEC is a low-beta defensive utility trading above composite fair value ($88.71) but supported by a dividend-safety bid in a risk-on but jittery tape. Expect modest drift lower toward the signal-adjusted anchor ($94.56) over 6 months as valuation gravity works, with a slower fade rather than a sharp drop given no near-term earnings catalyst.
Invalidated ifA break above $112 on strong volume, or a risk-off regime shift that accelerates defensive bid pushing WEC above $115, would falsify the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $107.42 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 24, 2026 | — | $107.42 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 7, 2026 | $103.47–$111.37 typical range · internal point $107.10 | — | ±3.7% | 7/10 | Defensive bid persists near-term, minimal drift |
| What actually happened: closed $105.94 on Sep 4, 2026 = -1.4% vs the call (predicted -0.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.1 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±3.7%: inside the band · S&P +0.9% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 24, 2026 | $101.70–$113.14 typical range · internal point $106.20 | — | ±5.3% | 6/10 | Slight fade as risk-on regime caps utility upside |
| 2 months | Oct 24, 2026 | $104.80 | — | -2.4% | 6/10 | Drift toward anchored-PE level, no catalyst |
| 3 months | Nov 24, 2026 | $103.00 | — | -4.1% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity pulls toward signal-adjusted FV |
| 4 months | Dec 24, 2026 | $101.50 | — | -5.5% | 5/10 | Year-end rebalancing away from defensives |
| 5 months | Jan 24, 2027 | $99.80 | — | -7.1% | 4/10 | Continued mean reversion toward composite fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 24, 2027 | $98.50 | — | -8.3% | 4/10 | Approaching signal-adjusted anchor of $94.56 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $105.01 (-2.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $107.42 |
| Composite fair value | $88.71 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $94.56 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $104.80 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -66 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +32 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 17.3% 3m 18.5% 6m 17.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.16 3m -0.30 5m -0.19 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -7.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | WEC-20260824-060001-ce6c |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-WEC-20260824-061858-17cb |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-WEC-20260824-061858-17cb |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-WEC-20260824-061858-17cb |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-WEC-20260824-061858-17cb |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | WEC-20260824-060001-ce6c |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $107.42 | $98.50 | -8.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.