Made on
Sep 4, 2026
Price at call
$190.40
6-month call
Bear -18.6%
Target by Mar 2027
$155.00
Great value below
$110.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-18.6% to $155.00
Predicted High
$192.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$155.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-18.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 4, 2026 1:10 pm
Bear
XPO trends lower to
$155.00
(-18.6% from $190.40)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisXPO trades massively above composite fair value ($64) with negative value and quality nets, but risk-on tape and intact turnaround narrative support near-term momentum. Value gravity pulls the stock lower over months, though not fully to fair value given anchored-PE support near $128 and beat track record.
Invalidated ifA break above $210 on strong volume or freight cycle re-acceleration would invalidate the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $190.40 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 4, 2026 | — | $190.40 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 18, 2026 | $176.64–$204.16 typical range · internal point $192.50 | — | ±7.2% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and momentum carry into near term |
| What actually happened: closed $175.34 on Sep 17, 2026 = -7.9% vs the call (predicted +1.1%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 9.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.2%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 4, 2026 | $170.46–$210.34 typical range · internal point $188.00 | — | ±10.5% | 5/10 | Slight consolidation as tape digests recent gains |
| 2 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $180.00 | — | -5.5% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins asserting on rich multiple |
| 3 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $172.00 | — | -9.7% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning trims high-beta transport names |
| 4 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $168.00 | — | -11.8% | 4/10 | January reset, freight demand seasonality softer |
| 5 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $160.00 | — | -16.0% | 3/10 | Continued drift toward anchored-PE support zone |
| 6 months | Mar 4, 2027 | $155.00 | — | -18.6% | 3/10 | Approaches deterministic baseline as value gravity dominates |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $145.37 (-23.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $190.40 |
| Composite fair value | $64.39 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $66.64 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $128.35 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $110.00 |
| Value net score | -78 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -5 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 32.4% 3m 36.3% 6m 39.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.62 3m 0.90 5m 1.08 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -10.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | XPO-20260904-040001-2626 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-XPO-20260904-043547-9757 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-XPO-20260904-043547-9757 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-XPO-20260904-043547-9757 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-XPO-20260904-043547-9757 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | XPO-20260904-040001-2626 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | XPO-20260904-040001-2626 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $190.40 | $155.00 | -18.6% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.