Made on
Sep 1, 2026
Price at call
$107.20
6-month call
Bear -10.0%
Target by Mar 2027
$96.50
Great value below
$72.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-10.0% to $96.50
Predicted High
$106.80
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$96.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-10.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 1, 2026 1:08 pm
Bear
XYL trends lower to
$96.50
(-10.0% from $107.20)
by Mar 2027.
decay
ThesisXYL is materially overvalued vs DCF/composite fair value near $55-60, but a risk-on tape and ESG water-infrastructure narrative keep the stock sticky in the near term. Expect a gradual drift lower over 6 months as value gravity reasserts, with no imminent earnings catalyst to accelerate the move.
Invalidated ifA break above $115 on strong volume or a major water-infrastructure contract/M&A catalyst would falsify the drift-lower thesis; conversely a fast break under $95 accelerates it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $107.20 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 1, 2026 | — | $107.20 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 15, 2026 | $101.47–$112.93 typical range · internal point $106.80 | — | ±5.3% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape holds price near current levels |
| What actually happened: closed $107.49 on Sep 14, 2026 = +0.3% vs the call (predicted -0.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.6 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±5.3%: inside the band · S&P -0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 1, 2026 | $98.89–$115.51 typical range · internal point $105.50 | — | ±7.7% | 6/10 | Mild drift as momentum cools further |
| What actually happened: closed $101.27 on Sep 30, 2026 = -5.5% vs the call (predicted -1.6%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 4.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.7%: inside the band · S&P +0.3% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $103.00 | — | -3.9% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity begins to bite, no catalyst |
| 3 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $101.00 | — | -5.8% | 5/10 | Year-end positioning, profit-taking on stretched names |
| 4 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $99.50 | — | -7.2% | 4/10 | January reset, rotation away from richly valued industrials |
| 5 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $98.00 | — | -8.6% | 4/10 | Approaching earnings, DCF anchor pulls harder |
| 6 months | Mar 1, 2027 | $96.50 | — | -10.0% | 4/10 | Six-month drift aligns near deterministic baseline |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $97.96 (-8.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
-
Degraded
[critical] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $107.20 |
| Composite fair value | $60.00 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $55.68 |
| DCF fair value | $44.16 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $120.34 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $72.00 |
| Value net score | -69 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +30 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 22.9% 3m 26.8% 6m 26.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.36 3m 0.55 5m 0.70 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -14.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | XYL-20260901-043001-be52 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-XYL-20260901-050835-6caa |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-XYL-20260901-050835-6caa |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-XYL-20260901-050835-6caa |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-XYL-20260901-050835-6caa |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | XYL-20260901-043001-be52 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | XYL-20260901-043001-be52 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $107.20 | $96.50 | -10.0% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.