Made on
Jul 27, 2026
Price at call
$148.92
6-month call
Bear -5.5%
Target by Jan 2027
$140.80
Great value below
$118.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-5.5% to $140.80
Predicted High
$148.20
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$140.80
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 27, 2026 12:57 am
Bear
YUM trends lower to
$140.80
(-5.5% from $148.92)
by Jan 2027.
decay
ThesisYUM trades meaningfully above composite fair value near $114 with a negative value net and only marginally positive sentiment, so gravity should pull the price gradually lower over six months. Low beta and defensive cash flows prevent a sharp derating, producing a slow decay toward the anchored-PE zone near $140 rather than the DCF.
Invalidated ifA close above $158 on positive comp/margin surprise, or a broad risk-off shock dragging YUM below $128, would falsify this gentle decay.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $148.92 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 27, 2026 | — | $148.92 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 10, 2026 | $141.77–$156.07 typical range · internal point $148.20 | — | ±4.8% | 6/10 | Low-beta drift, neutral regime, no near catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $150.76 on Aug 7, 2026 = +1.2% vs the call (predicted -0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.7 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±4.8%: inside the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 27, 2026 | $138.56–$159.28 typical range · internal point $147.10 | — | ±7.0% | 6/10 | Mild mean reversion as value lens weighs |
| What actually happened: closed $154.41 on Aug 26, 2026 = +3.7% vs the call (predicted -1.2%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.9 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±7.0%: inside the band · S&P +3.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 27, 2026 | $145.80 | — | -2.1% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, positioning trims premium |
| What actually happened: closed $138.63 on Sep 25, 2026 = -6.9% vs the call (predicted -2.1%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 4.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +4.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Oct 27, 2026 | $144.50 | — | -3.0% | 5/10 | Earnings-window reset toward anchored-PE fair value |
| 4 months | Nov 27, 2026 | $143.20 | — | -3.8% | 4/10 | Post-print digestion, value gravity persists |
| 5 months | Dec 27, 2026 | $142.00 | — | -4.6% | 4/10 | Year-end defensive bid partly offsets derating |
| 6 months | Jan 27, 2027 | $140.80 | — | -5.5% | 4/10 | Converges toward anchored-PE fair value zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $144.63 (-2.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $148.92 |
| Composite fair value | $113.71 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $115.55 |
| DCF fair value | $112.19 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $141.56 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $118.00 |
| Value net score | -78 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +60 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 25.8% 3m 24.1% 6m 21.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.38 3m -0.10 5m 0.15 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -3.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | YUM-20260727-000446-99ce |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-YUM-20260727-004658-e865 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-YUM-20260727-004658-e865 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-YUM-20260727-004658-e865 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-YUM-20260727-004658-e865 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | YUM-20260727-000446-99ce |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | YUM-20260727-000446-99ce |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $148.92 | $140.80 | -5.5% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.