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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Alcon Inc. (ALC) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-27): Designation Low · Gem Score -19 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 55 · Value -69 · Sentiment -36 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $48.85 vs $73.70 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
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Alcon Inc.
ALC NYSEAlcon Inc. is a global eye care company that develops, manufactures, and markets products for vision health and ophthalmic surgery. Its portfolio includes surgical equipment and devices, intraocular lenses, consumables, and pharmaceutical eye drops used in procedures and treatments for eye diseases and disorders. The company also offers consumer vision care products designed for everyday eye health, including contact lens-related solutions and other routine care items. Alcon Inc. operates through its Surgical and Vision Care segments, serving eye care professionals, hospitals, clinics, and consumers across international markets. Headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, Alcon Inc. is recognized as a major participant in the global ophthalmology and vision care industry.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
This company does not file structured financial statements with the U.S. SEC, so quarterly figures aren't available from our filings-based data engine. Annual figures shown here come from the sources that do cover it.
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 1.98
Total Equity: $22.04B
Shares: 496,200,000
Total Debt: $4.74B
Cash: $1.53B
EBITDA: $1.78B
Total Debt: $4.74B
Cash: $1.53B
Revenue: $10.40B
Revenue: $10.40B
Revenue: $10.40B
Total Equity: $22.04B
Tax Rate: 15.5%
Equity: $22.04B
Total Debt: $4.74B
Cash: $1.53B
Current Liabilities: $3.05B
Long-Term Debt: $4.16B
Total Debt: $4.74B
Total Equity: $22.04B
Shares: 496,200,000
Shares: 496,200,000
CapEx: -$543.00M
Shares: 496,200,000
Stock Price: $73.70
Net Income: $980.00M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 25, 2026 5:30am (43d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.3B | $8.7B | $9.5B | $9.9B | $10.4B |
| Cost of Revenue | $3.6B | $4.0B | $4.2B | $4.4B | $4.7B |
| Gross Profit | $4.7B | $4.7B | $5.2B | $5.5B | $5.7B |
| Operating Expenses | $4.1B | $4.1B | $4.2B | $4.1B | $4.4B |
| Operating Income | $580.0M | $672.0M | $1.0B | $1.4B | $1.4B |
| Net Income | — | — | $974.0M | $1.0B | $980.0M |
| EBITDA | $1.5B | $1.7B | $2.2B | $1.8B | $1.8B |
| EPS | $0.77 | $0.68 | $1.98 | $2.06 | $1.99 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.76 | $0.68 | $1.96 | $2.05 | $1.98 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 25, 2026 5:30am (43d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $1.6B | $980.0M | $1.1B | $1.7B | $1.5B |
| Total Current Assets | $5.4B | $5.2B | $5.6B | $6.3B | $6.4B |
| Total Assets | $28.0B | $29.2B | $29.6B | $30.3B | $31.6B |
| Current Liabilities | $2.5B | $2.8B | $2.5B | $2.3B | $3.0B |
| Long-Term Debt | $4.0B | $4.5B | $4.6B | $4.5B | $4.2B |
| Total Liabilities | $8.7B | $9.5B | $9.0B | $8.8B | $9.5B |
| Total Equity | $19.3B | $19.7B | $20.6B | $21.6B | $22.0B |
| Retained Earnings | — | — | — | — | — |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 25, 2026 5:30am (43d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $2.1B | $2.3B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$700.0M | -$636.0M | -$658.0M | -$473.0M | -$543.0M |
| Free Cash Flow | $645.0M | $581.0M | $730.0M | $1.6B | $1.7B |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $0 | -$4.0M | $0 | $12.0M | -$53.0M |
| Dividends Paid | -$54.0M | -$100.0M | -$116.0M | -$130.0M | -$166.0M |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | $18.0M | -$595.0M | $114.0M | $582.0M | -$149.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 25, 2026 5:30am (43d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +5.1% | +8.5% | +4.8% | +4.9% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +2.1% | +10.5% | +5.1% | +4.2% |
| Operating Income Growth | +15.9% | +54.6% | +36.0% | -3.8% |
| Net Income Growth | — | — | +4.5% | -3.7% |
| EBITDA Growth | +10.9% | +31.1% | -16.8% | -1.6% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 23, 2026 8:27am (45d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | $0.36 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-13 | $0.33 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-14 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-10 | $0.24 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-03 | $0.21 | — | — | — |
| 2021-05-04 | $0.09 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-08-26 02:14Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-25 06:45The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
Starting with the raw arithmetic: Alcon has grown revenue from $8.29B (2021) to $10.40B (2025), a 4.9% CAGR — respectable but pedestrian for a $35.6B name trading at 37x earnings. More damning: net income went from $974M (2023) to $1.02B (2024) to $980M (2025) — flat to down over three years while the market pays a growth multiple. Operating margin sits at 13.1%, which for a premium medical device franchise is mediocre (Stryker runs ~22%, Intuitive Surgical ~28%). ROE of 4.5% and ROIC of 4.6% are frankly poor — barely covering cost of capital. The equity base of $22B against $980M in earnings tells you this is a capital-heavy business earning sub-par returns, not a compounder. FCF of $1.73B on $10.4B revenue (16.6% FCF margin) is the one genuinely strong number, and the 53.9% FCF CAGR looks more like normalization off a depressed base than a durable trend.
The synthesis fair value of $57 (vs. $73.70) directionally matches my read, and I largely agree with the "fully_priced" verdict — but I'd push harder on the magnitude. At 37x trailing earnings for a business compounding EPS at 0.3% and generating 4.5% ROE, you're paying a defensive-compounder multiple for what the numbers say is a low-return industrial with modest cyclical tailwinds. The pre-flight note calling this a "defensive healthcare compounder" is what the market believes, but the earnings line simply doesn't corroborate it — this isn't Danaher or Stryker economics. The narrative layer nails the tension: the 29% premium is a "safety and demographic demand" tax, not earnings-justified. Where I part ways with Market Forces calling this a "solid hold" — a hold at 37x with flat EPS and sub-cost-of-capital ROIC requires believing the multiple holds. That's a bet on flows and narrative, not fundamentals.
The contrarian bull case worth taking seriously: premium IOL mix-shift and Vision Care recurring revenue could inflect operating margins materially — every 100bps of op margin is ~$104M of operating income, or ~8% to net income. If Alcon can walk to 18% op margins (still below peers) over three years, EPS could reach $2.80-$3.00 and the multiple problem partially solves itself. FCF conversion is genuinely improving. Debt is manageable at $4.74B against $22B equity (D/E 0.21). And "Macro Headwinds" plus "Below Sector Benchmarks" as flagged secondary signals may be temporary — elective surgery normalization post-COVID isn't finished. But this requires believing margin expansion that hasn't shown up yet: op margin was 13.1% in 2025 vs. 14.2% in 2024 — it went the wrong direction last year. The bull thesis is a promise, not a trend.
Where the data is thin: no quarterly revenue trajectory is shown, which matters enormously for a thesis hinging on margin inflection — I can't see if Q3/Q4 2025 showed premium IOL acceleration or continued softness. No insider activity provided. The 2022 and 2021 NI lines are blank, making earnings CAGR calculation shaky. I'd want the segment mix (Surgical vs. Vision Care) before committing capital. Net-net: I agree with synthesis that fair value is closer to $57 than $74, but I'd frame this as overvalued rather than "fully priced" — the market is paying a quality multiple for average-quality returns, and the catalyst for re-rating (margin expansion, EPS growth) is absent in the 2025 data. This is a name to own at $55-60, not $74.
GPT Reading
Alcon looks like a good business priced like a better one. The core operating picture is steady rather than exceptional: revenue has risen from $8.29B in 2021 to $10.40B in 2025, a respectable 5.8% annualized clip, and gross margin has improved to 55.2%. But below gross profit, the earnings story is far less impressive. Operating income went from $580M in 2021 to $1.36B in 2025, which sounds strong until you notice it actually slipped from $1.41B in 2024; net income similarly declined from $1.02B to $980M. So at $73.7, investors are paying 37.2x earnings and 22.3x EV/EBITDA for a company whose latest year showed 4.9% revenue growth and negative 3.7% earnings growth. That multiple belongs to a business with either cleaner double-digit growth or clearer margin inflection than the data here demonstrates.
The part of the story that does deserve credit is cash generation. Operating cash flow of $2.27B and free cash flow of $1.73B on $10.40B of revenue is healthy, implying roughly 16.6% FCF margin. Against a $35.63B market cap, that is about a 4.9% FCF yield, not terrible for a defensive healthcare name. The balance sheet is also manageable, with $4.74B of debt offset by $1.53B of cash and debt/equity of just 0.215. This is why I do not think the stock is dangerous in a balance-sheet sense. But valuation still matters: a business earning just 4.5% ROIC and 4.4% ROE should not command a premium growth multiple simply because it is stable and exposed to favorable eye-care demographics. Stability can justify a floor, not any price.
What stands out most is the mismatch between market expectations and the company’s actual rate of value creation. Sales have added about $2.1B over four years, yet net income has remained stuck around $1.0B and operating margin sits at 13.1%. That says either pricing power is limited, reinvestment needs are persistent, or mix and cost tailwinds are not translating into sustained bottom-line leverage. The low dividend yield of 0.49% also means shareholders are not being paid much while waiting for that leverage to show up. At 3.5x sales and 1.66x book, Alcon is not outrageously priced on asset-based measures, but for a mature medtech manufacturer the earnings and cash-flow multiples imply a much smoother and stronger compounding path than the recent record supports. I think the market is overpaying for “defensive quality.”
The strongest counterargument is that earnings are understating the underlying economics and that free cash flow is the better lens. If you capitalize the current $1.73B of FCF at a high-quality defensive multiple, today’s valuation is not absurd, and the company has posted meaningful operating improvement from 2021’s $580M operating profit to more than $1.3B now. Bulls would also point out that gross profit rose from $4.65B to $5.75B, showing the franchise is expanding even if reported net income is noisy. In a market that prizes resilience, a healthcare name with recurring procedure demand, consumables exposure, and modest leverage can retain a premium for a long time. I weigh that differently because the premium already exists: when a company with sub-5% recent top-line growth, flat-ish net income, and single-digit returns on capital is at 37x earnings, the burden of proof shifts heavily to future acceleration.
What would change my mind is evidence that Alcon can translate its revenue base into materially better returns rather than merely bigger scale. If the next year shows revenue growth reaccelerating above 7%-8% while operating income rises back above the 2024 peak and pushes operating margin toward 15%, the current multiple would look much more defensible. I would also reconsider if ROIC moves decisively above 7% and free cash flow holds above $1.8B without working-capital distortions. Absent that, I see a sturdy franchise whose quality is real but already overcapitalized in the stock price.
Grok Reading
Alcon’s numbers describe a competent, slow-compounding medical-device franchise that the market has decided to treat like a growth story. Revenue has marched from $8.29B in 2021 to $10.40B in 2025 at a 4.9% CAGR, with the latest year delivering another tidy 4.9% step-up. Gross margin holds near 55% and free cash flow of $1.73B on $2.27B of operating cash is real quality—capex is modest at $543M and the balance sheet is conservative ($4.74B debt against $22B equity, D/E 0.215, current ratio 2.1). That is the bullish half of the ledger. The bearish half is harder to ignore: operating income slipped from $1.41B to $1.36B and net income from $1.02B to $980M, producing a –3.7% earnings print and an earnings CAGR of essentially zero over the multi-year window. ROE of 4.5% and ROIC of 4.6% are poor absolute returns on capital for a company asking 37× trailing earnings, 3.5× sales and 22× EV/EBITDA. At $73.70 the stock sits roughly 29% above the synthesis fair-value band near $57; the premium is almost pure multiple, not evidence of accelerating profit.
The story the market is telling—aging demographics, sticky surgical consumables, premium IOL mix shift, recession resistance—is coherent and durable enough to justify a quality premium over ordinary industrials. It does not justify 37× earnings when reported profits are flat-to-down and organic growth is mid-single-digit. FCF conversion looks excellent partly because earnings themselves have been soft; the 54% FCF CAGR is flattering a recovery trajectory more than a structural re-rating engine. Sector intelligence flags the name as below-benchmark, and macro headwinds sit uncomfortably next to a defensive multiple that already prices perfection. In short, the quantitative models calling the stock fully priced or expensive are aligned with the income statement, not fighting it.
The strongest counter-argument is that cash generation and balance-sheet fortress status make the multiple less dangerous than it looks. A buyer at $73 is paying for $1.73B of FCF and a business that should keep growing mid-single digits through cataract volumes and international penetration regardless of the cycle; if operating leverage finally appears and net margin expands from 9.4% toward the mid-teens, today’s PE compresses quickly without any revenue surprise. Low narrative intensity and a low cult coefficient also mean the stock is less vulnerable to fashion risk than true story stocks—holders are mostly index and healthcare-quality allocators who will not stampede on a single soft quarter. That case is real, but it still requires the margin expansion that 2025 failed to deliver; until operating profit grows faster than revenue, the “compounder” label is mostly a multiple story, not an earnings story.
I would reverse to neutral or constructive on a clear print of operating-margin expansion (north of 15%) accompanied by high-single-digit organic growth, or on a sustained multi-quarter acceleration in surgical consumables that lifts the revenue CAGR toward 7–8%. A drop in the share price into the high-$50s would also flip the risk/reward without any fundamental change. Absent one of those, the stock is a high-quality hold only for investors already inside; new capital is better deployed elsewhere.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Alcon shows the fingerprints of a mature, high-quality medical-device operator: revenue compounded from $8.29B (2021) to $10.40B (2025), gross margin has been steady in a tight 54.5-56.1% band, and operating margin has stepped up from 7% to 13.1%. Cash conversion is genuine, not cosmetic - FCF nearly tripled from $645M in 2021 to $1.73B in 2025, OCF/NI runs 1.93x, and accruals are -3% of assets with a Beneish M of -2.58. Diluted share count has been essentially flat (493.4M to 496.2M, ~0.1% CAGR), so per-share value is not being eroded through issuance. The soft spots are structural rather than forensic. Net debt of roughly $3.21B against only $1.53B of liquid cash and an Altman Z of 2.85 (grey zone) says the balance sheet is a constraint, not a cushion - the company is self-funding but not fortress-funded. Operating margin at 13.1% is respectable for a medical-instruments business but not elite, and 2025 net income ($980M) actually ticked down slightly from 2024 ($1.02B) despite revenue growth, hinting at cost/mix pressure worth watching. Overall this reads as a solid, well-run franchise rather than a category-defining compounder.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Debt maturity schedule and covenants behind the $3.21B net debt position
- Whether 2025 net income decline reflects one-offs (litigation, restructuring, FX) or underlying margin pressure
- SBC as % of revenue (not disclosed in modules) to confirm dilution discipline is not masked by buybacks
- Customer/geographic concentration in surgical vs vision-care segments
- R&D spend trajectory and pipeline visibility supporting the moat claim
- Any pending product liability or IP litigation from the 10-K
The valuation stack is unusually consistent on the downside: composite FV $51.16, signal-adjusted FV $57.15, DCF $52.43, and even the anchored-PE method only gets to $70.39 - still below spot. Every reasonable lens says the price already bakes in continued margin expansion, sticky surgical consumables growth, and demographic tailwinds. The EPV floor of $29.37 is a reminder that stripping out growth optionality leaves very little downside support. Quality is real (solid 55, clean earnings), which justifies paying a premium to EPV and to DCF, but not a 22% premium to the signal-adjusted FV. Deserved value, giving full credit for durability and clean cash conversion, lands somewhere around $57-65 - anchored-PE is the ceiling for what I would pay, not the floor. At $73.70 the market is asking me to underwrite the bull case as base case: continued mid-single-digit organic growth, uninterrupted margin expansion, and no generic drag on the pharma book. With $3.21B net debt reducing the margin for error, that is a full price for a fine business, not a mispricing to exploit.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Organic constant-currency growth trajectory in surgical vs vision care segments
- Magnitude and timeline of generic erosion on key pharma products (e.g. Rocklatan, Simbrinza)
- Sustainability of gross/operating margin expansion into 2026 guidance
- Capex intensity and FCF conversion trend post-2025 margin softening
Alcon's narrative is a moderate-intensity, moderate-durability steady-compounder story: aging demographics, recurring surgical consumables, dry-eye tailwinds. That story just took a public crack: SGA, a growth-oriented manager, exited citing slowing cataract demand and rising competition. For a name whose entire premium rests on perceived safety and demographic inevitability, a marquee holder walking on demand grounds is exactly the kind of narrative erosion that de-rates multiples slowly rather than violently. It is not a collapse, but it chips at the one pillar holding the story up. The macro backdrop is neutral-to-slightly-supportive but does little for ALC specifically. Beta 0.69 means the calm tape is not a meaningful tailwind, while higher rates (10y 4.74%) and a stretched market PE quietly pressure exactly the kind of premium multiple ALC trades at. There is no offsetting positive news flow, no analyst upgrade wave, no fresh bull catalyst. Momentum is technically positive but the narrative pressure now leans against it.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether other institutional holders follow SGA's exit in upcoming 13F filings
- Next cataract procedure volume data points from ALC or peers (JNJ Vision, Bausch)
- Sell-side target revisions or downgrades citing the SGA thesis
- Any competitive commentary from ALC management addressing share loss
Eye care is one of the few healthcare sub-markets whose demand driver is demographic arithmetic rather than reimbursement fashion: the 65+ cohort expands regardless of the macro. That gives Alcon an unusually reliable low-single-to-mid-single-digit volume floor even with 10y at 4.74% and a contracting instruments capex cycle — deferrable console purchases slip, implants and lenses do not. The world's changes that matter here are procedure-mix upgrading (premium IOLs, daily disposables) and price competition in commoditized eye drops, not platform disruption. Net: a durable, slow, defensible grower in a mature category, with the burden of proof sitting entirely on margin conversion rather than demand.
When we made this prediction on Aug 25, 2026, ALC was $73.23. We expect it to be $66.20 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $58.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 25, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.
Post-Report Due Diligence UNSETTLED
Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.
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