Skip to main content
Homepage
AGING Analysis Report
Aug 24, 2026
28 days ago · 100% complete
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-09-21): Designation Low · Gem Score -36 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality -81 · Value 0 · Sentiment 36 (timing only, not weighted)

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

CoreWeave, Inc.

CRWV NASDAQ
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Livingston, NJ 07039, United States coreweave.com Updated Aug 24, 3:30am
Price
$87.85
Market Cap
$48.5B
Employees
2,189
Beta
Avg Volume
30,324,153
CEO
Mr. Michael N. Intrator

CoreWeave, Inc. is an American artificial intelligence cloud computing company that provides high-performance infrastructure tailored to modern AI and accelerated computing workloads. Headquartered in Livingston, New Jersey, CoreWeave focuses on delivering large-scale GPU-based compute resources for applications such as generative AI, machine learning, visual effects rendering, and other data- and compute-intensive tasks. Its platform combines specialized hardware, networking, and storage with orchestration and chip management software to help enterprises and AI developers deploy, scale, and optimize complex models efficiently. CoreWeave positions itself as a purpose-built cloud for AI, offering flexible, high-throughput infrastructure and technical support aimed at organizations that require more specialized performance than general-purpose cloud providers typically offer. The company serves a global client base that includes AI labs, fast-growing startups, and large enterprises across technology, media, and other data-driven industries.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 24, 2026 4:35am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$87.85
as of Aug 22, 2:49pm (29d ago)
Change · Aug 22
-1.91 (-2.13%)
Day Range
$87.41 – $91.52
52-Week Range
$60.55 – $153.20
50-Day MA
$89.92
200-Day MA
$91.95
Volume
22,088,200.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 29d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 532,000,000.00
Float 324,783,359.00
Free Float 61.0%
Normal free float — 61.0% of shares trade freely, ~39% held by insiders/institutions
Healthy float typical of established companies. Good liquidity for entering and exiting positions without major price impact.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 24, 2026 5:30am (28d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 24, 2026 5:30am (28d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 24, 2026 4:32am
P/E · trailing (TTM) (Price per dollar of earnings over the past year — not a run-rate or forward P/E)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
-31.26
Stock Price: $87.85
EPS (Diluted): -2.81
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
11.49
Stock Price: $87.85
Total Equity: $3.34B
Shares: 436,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
27.68
Market Cap: $48.45B
Total Debt: $21.37B
Cash: $3.13B
EBITDA: $2.41B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$66.7B
Market Cap: $48.45B
Total Debt: $21.37B
Cash: $3.13B
P/S Ratio (Price per dollar of revenue)
HEX
Stock Price / Revenue Per Share
7.46
Stock Price: $87.85
Revenue: $5.13B
Shares: 436,000,000
EV/Sales (Total value vs revenue — works when P/E can't)
CALC
12.99
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
71.7%
Gross Profit: $3.68B
Revenue: $5.13B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
-0.9%
Operating Income: -$46.00M
Revenue: $5.13B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
-22.7%
Net Income: -$1.17B
Revenue: $5.13B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
-35.0%
Net Income: -$1.17B
Total Equity: $3.34B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
-0.2%
Operating Income: -$46.00M
Tax Rate: 4.0%
Equity: $3.34B
Total Debt: $21.37B
Cash: $3.13B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.46
Current Assets: $7.49B
Current Liabilities: $16.44B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
6.41
Short-Term Debt: $6.71B
Long-Term Debt: $14.67B
Total Debt: $21.37B
Total Equity: $3.34B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$11.77
Revenue: $5.13B
Shares: 436,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$7.65
Total Equity: $3.34B
Shares: 436,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$-16.63
Operating CF: $3.06B
CapEx: -$10.31B
Shares: 436,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
Last Dividend: $0.00
Stock Price: $87.85
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: -$1.17B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 24, 2026 4:32am
Compares CRWV against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 24, 2026 5:30am (28d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $229.0M $1.9B $5.1B
Cost of Revenue $69.0M $493.0M $1.5B
Gross Profit $160.0M $1.4B $3.7B
Operating Expenses $174.0M $1.1B $3.7B
Operating Income -$14.0M $324.0M -$46.0M
Net Income -$594.0M -$863.0M -$1.2B
EBITDA $89.0M $1.2B $2.4B
EPS $-3.09 $-4.30 $-2.75
EPS (Diluted) $-3.09 $-4.30 $-2.81
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 24, 2026 3:30am (28d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $217.0M $1.4B $3.1B
Total Current Assets $1.9B $7.5B
Total Assets $17.8B $49.3B
Current Liabilities $5.0B $16.4B
Long-Term Debt $5.5B $14.7B
Total Liabilities $16.5B $46.0B
Total Equity -$11.0M -$597.0M $1.3B $3.3B
Retained Earnings -$1.5B -$2.6B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 24, 2026 5:30am (28d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $1.8B $2.7B $3.1B
Capital Expenditure -$2.9B -$8.7B -$10.3B
Free Cash Flow -$1.1B -$6.0B -$7.3B
Acquisitions (net) $0 $0 -$108.0M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $1.4B $6.4B $8.4B
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks
Net Change in Cash $473.0M $1.6B $2.1B
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 24, 2026 5:30am (28d ago)
Metric 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +736.2% +167.9%
Gross Profit Growth +788.8% +158.6%
Operating Income Growth +2,414.3% -114.2%
Net Income Growth -45.3% -35.2%
EBITDA Growth +1,233.7% +102.9%
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 17 computed · 7 not applicable
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-09-18 02:42
-1.9 : 1 +1σ upside vs −1σ downside, from this company's own quarterly history
A +1σ run of quarters pays -186%; a −1σ run costs 100%. Ratio -1.9:1 (μ 152.7%, σ 98.5% , 6 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): 2.9 : 1
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($87.85)
Bull — recovery +150% 9.2% $340.91 +288%
Base — stabilizes +100% 8.0% $108.36 +23%
Bear — keeps slipping +50% 6.8% $23.84 -73%
Stress — last quarter repeats +134% -25.4% $0.00 -100%
Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) +50% -12.7% $-75.45 -186%
Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) +50% -25.4% $0.00 -100%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2025-09-30) — growth stays at 133.7% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.50). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +112.1% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Sep 30, 2025 (revenue +133.7%, operating income -55.7% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for CRWV — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-24 05:39

The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.

Growing Revenue is still compounding above +110% YoY on contracted AI compute backlog — the growth is real and far ahead of its ~19% category, but the growth RATE is already decaying and the model's dependence on debt-funded capex and a handful of anchor customers caps how far this can be extrapolated. conf 7/10
Share gain Category growing · Category median recent growth ~18.9% (3-yr industry CAGR 18.2%); CoreWeave's recent YoY is 167.9% and its newest matched-quarter read is +112% — a roughly 150pp gap. The company is growing many multiples faster than the pool it sits in, so it is not merely riding the tide.
Next 2 quarters
Growing
Backlog conversion plus capacity energizing over the next two prints makes triple-digit or high-double-digit revenue growth the base case; the only real swing factor is delivery timing on power and hardware. EPS remains noisy and likely negative as depreciation and interest scale.
≈ inline with expectations
Year 1
Growing
Full-year trajectory is underwritten by signed capacity, so growth stays clearly positive and far above category. But the run-rate step-down from ~168% to ~112% continues as comps harden — Growing, not Accelerating.
≈ inline with expectations
Years 2–3
Holding
Structurally I split from the near term. Absolute revenue can keep rising while earnings POWER stagnates: contract renewals reprice GPU-hours downward, depreciation on fast-obsoleting silicon and interest on the capex stack consume the incremental gross profit, and anchor-customer concentration means one in-sourcing decision resets the curve. Demand growth is high-confidence; durable per-share earnings growth is not.
↓ below expectations
The creme: each rung's call measured against what's already printed (vs analyst estimates · vs guidance / FY consensus · vs price-implied growth) — expectations in print are already in the price, so only the variant margin can pay. Hover a rung's chip for the margin read.
Growth drivers
82 Contracted backlog conversion — Growth is not demand-speculative: revenue recognition follows multi-year take-or-pay style capacity contracts with large model developers and hyperscale partners. Once power and racks energize, revenue prints almost mechanically, which is why +112% YoY held through the newest matched quarter.
70 Massive share gain vs category — Recent YoY 167.9% against industry ~17-18% — a ~151pp gap. CoreWeave is absorbing a disproportionate share of net-new accelerated compute spend because purpose-built GPU clusters (networking, orchestration, chip management) beat retrofitted general-purpose cloud on time-to-cluster.
48 Category still structurally expanding — Industry revenue CAGR 18.2% over 3 years with operating margins +7.7pp and net margins +9.3pp industry-wide. The pool CoreWeave fishes in is growing and getting more profitable, so growth does not require taking someone's shrinking business.
57 Capacity as the binding constraint, not demand — Near-term revenue is gated by megawatts energized and GPU deliveries rather than order intake. That makes the next 2-4 quarters unusually forecastable to the upside if delivery schedules hold — a rare visibility advantage.
Growth risks
65 Deceleration is already visible — Recent YoY stepped down from ~168% to ~112%, and the quarterly trend is flagged decelerating. Law-of-large-numbers math plus a widening comp base means the growth rate mechanically compresses each quarter even if absolute dollars keep rising.
72 Customer and counterparty concentration — A small number of anchor AI customers underwrite the majority of contracted revenue. Any renegotiation, in-sourcing of silicon, or funding stress at a single counterparty converts a growth engine into a stranded-asset problem — this is the single largest variance driver in the out-years.
61 Capital intensity and financing dependence — Growth is bought with debt-funded GPU and data-center capex against a 4.69% 10-year and macro headwinds. Net income remains negative (latest EPS -1.14) as depreciation and interest scale ahead of revenue. Tighter credit directly throttles the growth rate, not just the margin.
50 Commoditization of GPU-hours — Hyperscalers can cross-subsidize compute pricing off existing footprints and ecosystem lock-in; new neoclouds keep entering. If per-GPU-hour pricing resets on contract renewals, revenue growth in years 2-3 decouples sharply from installed capacity growth.
32 Sector cycle turning — Sector demand cycle reads slowdown (score -1) for Software-Infrastructure even as AI infrastructure booms. If enterprise AI budgets pause before inference demand fully industrializes, the digestion phase hits capacity-heavy operators hardest.
The world is re-plumbing compute: training and, increasingly, inference workloads require dense, liquid-cooled, high-interconnect clusters that legacy general-purpose cloud footprints were not designed for. That mismatch is CoreWeave's entire reason to exist and it is a multi-year build, not a quarter. Against that, the financing environment is the counterweight — a 4.69% 10-year, a barely positive curve and macro headwinds make debt-funded GPU fleets more expensive exactly when the asset's useful economic life is uncertain (silicon generations turn faster than depreciation schedules). The honest structural read: demand for AI compute is very likely to keep growing for years, but the ECONOMICS of being the leveraged landlord of rapidly-obsoleting silicon are far less certain than the demand curve. Growth in revenue is the high-confidence part; growth in durable earnings power is the contested part.
Growth position composite +2
ShrinkingStallingHoldingGrowingAccelerating
70Next 2 quarters · Growing
70Year 1 · Growing
50Years 2–3 · Holding
+2Composite (−100…+100)
A research prediction, not advice. Forward-graded: each rung is scored against the prints that follow it. Not an input to the GEM designation — track record first.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-24 05:29:35
Verdict Overvalued at $87.85 — fundamental fair value $40-55 reflecting refinancing risk, customer concentration, and GPU depreciation treadmill; the $48B cap is 90% narrative premium on a levered GPU landlord, not a platform monopoly.

The raw trajectory is genuinely arresting: quarterly revenue went from $584M (Q3'24) to $2.58B (Q2'26) — a 4.4x lift in seven quarters, with sequential growth of $2.08B→$2.58B (+24% QoQ) as recently as last quarter. That is not decelerating in absolute terms; the "decelerating quarterly trend" flag is technically true on a percentage basis but misleading given the base effect. Gross margin at 71.7% is real and structurally interesting for an infrastructure business. But everything below the gross line is a horror show once you look honestly: 2025 operating income of -$46M on $5.1B revenue means SG&A + D&A + interest is eating the entire gross profit stack, and 2025 FCF of -$7.25B against $10.3B capex tells you the "revenue" is being manufactured by borrowing to buy Nvidia GPUs and renting them back to a handful of hyperscale-adjacent customers. The $21.4B debt against $3.3B equity (D/E 6.4x) and current ratio of 0.46 is a genuine solvency configuration, not a growth-company balance sheet.

The synthesis "Priced for Perfection" verdict and the Market Forces "Headwinds" call are directionally right but I think they still understate the debt-cycle risk. GPUs depreciate on a 3-5 year useful life; H100s are already being repriced downward as B200/GB200 supply ramps. CoreWeave's $10B annual capex isn't optional maintenance — it's a treadmill. If contracted revenue (Microsoft is reportedly ~60%+ of revenue) renegotiates on renewal at 20-30% lower pricing to reflect commoditized GPU-hours, the unit economics invert violently because the debt service is fixed. The thesis evaluation's -11 score feels too generous; the bull weights assume "AI demand exceeds forecasts" is independent of "hyperscalers own this market by 2027," but they aren't independent — the same hyperscalers that are CRWV's largest customers are building competing capacity. That's the contradiction the models danced around: Microsoft is simultaneously CoreWeave's lifeline and its most credible executioner.

The contrarian bull case worth stating: at $87.85 and $48B market cap on a $2.58B quarterly run-rate (~$10.3B annualized), the forward EV/revenue is roughly 6.7x including net debt of $18B — not obviously insane if you believe 2027 revenue lands at $18-22B and gross margins hold. The narrative-mode assessment (90% story) is correct but incomplete: the story has a hard cash test in 2026-27 when the first tranches of that $21B debt need refinancing or extending, and interest coverage will be the metric that matters, not revenue growth. If rates stay elevated and the AI capex cycle even mildly disappoints, CRWV's equity is a call option on refinancing. The insider activity — pure option-exercise-and-sell mechanics on a single day (Aug 20), no discretionary open-market buying — is what you'd expect but tells you insiders aren't stepping up here either.

I agree with the synthesis verdict but land more bearish than "priced for perfection." Perfection is at least a coherent scenario; my read is that the model is structurally fragile because customer concentration + debt load + GPU depreciation curve create a scenario where even good execution can produce equity impairment. Fair value on a probability-weighted basis is closer to $40-55 (haircut for refinancing risk, customer concentration renegotiation, and terminal margin compression to 15-20% EBITDA rather than the 30%+ the bull case needs). The gap to $87.85 is the narrative premium. I'd short-bias this into strength, but sizing must respect that AI-infra momentum can push it to $120+ before reality asserts — this is not a name to be short-heavy on before a catalyst. The catalyst to watch: Microsoft contract renewal terms, any Nvidia allocation shift toward hyperscalers-direct, or the first covenant-adjacent quarter where operating cash flow can't cover interest + maintenance capex.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-24 05:29:53
Verdict Overvalued at $87.85 — fair value is closer to $55-65 unless CoreWeave proves it can turn $10B+ run-rate revenue into materially lower cash burn and real operating profit.

CoreWeave’s income statement is screaming “real demand,” but the balance sheet and cash flow statement are screaming something louder: this is a financing structure masquerading as a software multiple. Revenue went from $229M in 2023 to $1.92B in 2024 to $5.13B in 2025, and the quarterly run-rate has kept climbing to $2.58B in the June 2026 quarter, up from $1.21B a year earlier. On an annualized basis that is already a $10B+ revenue pace. Gross profit scaled too, with 2025 gross profit at $3.68B on $5.13B of revenue, a very strong 71.7% gross margin for what is fundamentally compute infrastructure. That combination is what keeps the stock afloat at $87.85 and a $48.45B market cap: if the revenue is durable and the gross margin is real, investors can imagine a future where fixed costs get absorbed and earnings inflect fast.

But the rest of the numbers don’t support paying up as if that future is close. In 2025, operating income was still negative $46M despite the huge gross profit pool, and net loss was $1.17B. More importantly, operating cash flow of $3.06B is being overwhelmed by capex of $10.31B, leaving free cash flow at negative $7.25B. That’s not a temporary rounding error; it is the business model at this stage. The latest annual balance sheet shows $21.37B of debt against just $3.13B of cash and $3.34B of equity, with a current ratio of 0.46 and debt-to-equity above 6x. This is not a company merely “investing ahead of growth”; it is one that must continuously win both customer demand and capital market confidence. At $48.45B equity value, investors are effectively underwriting years of heavy external financing while assuming that the assets being built will earn very high utilization and attractive pricing in an industry where supply responses are coming from the deepest-pocketed competitors in the world.

The quarter-to-quarter pattern also argues against treating this like a clean software compounding story. Revenue is still growing rapidly, but the net margin remains deeply negative and erratic: -32.1%, -23.9%, -8.1%, -28.7%, -35.6%, then -24.3% in the most recent quarter. That is not what an imminent operating leverage story usually looks like. Even on the favorable metric, valuation is rich. If I annualize the latest quarter’s $2.58B, the stock is around 4.7x current run-rate sales; on trailing 2025 revenue it is about 9.4x sales. For a capital-light software name, maybe you can stretch there. For a company with negative free cash flow of more than $7B, leverage over $21B, and an asset base that will require relentless refresh in GPUs and data-center infrastructure, I can’t. The market is valuing CoreWeave as if today’s extraordinary AI demand, pricing, and customer urgency will persist long enough for the company to delever into strength. That is too generous.

The best case against my view is straightforward: the scale is arriving so quickly that the valuation could compress naturally even if the stock goes nowhere. A business that was at $982M of revenue in Q1 2025 and is at $2.58B by Q2 2026 is not decelerating into irrelevance; it is still compounding at a pace few public companies ever achieve. If gross margins can remain around 70% while SG&A and other operating costs grow slower than revenue, CoreWeave may be much closer to meaningful operating profit than GAAP net income suggests. The operating income swing from positive $324M in 2024 to negative $46M in 2025 despite much larger revenue hints that accounting noise, financing costs, and depreciation are muddying the underlying earnings power. If capex is front-loaded and this installed capacity monetizes over several years, today’s negative free cash flow could look like a deliberate land-grab rather than structural value destruction. In that world, 2026 or 2027 revenue could plausibly exceed $10B-$12B, making the current market cap less extreme than it appears on trailing numbers.

What would change my mind is evidence that CoreWeave can translate hypergrowth into self-funding economics before the balance sheet becomes the story. Specifically, I would want to see at least two consecutive quarters of operating margin clearly positive, net losses narrowing toward better than -10% margin, and annualized operating cash flow rising enough that free cash flow losses shrink materially from the 2025 level even with continued capex. I would also need to see debt growth slow relative to revenue growth and liquidity improve from the current sub-0.5 current ratio. If the company can exit a year with a revenue run-rate above $12B, gross margin still north of 65%, and free cash flow burn cut by half without a major equity raise, the bull case gets much more credible. Until then, this looks like a phenomenal business franchise possibility attached to a valuation that assumes near-perfect execution in a brutally capital-intensive market.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-24 05:30:33
Verdict Overvalued at $87.85 — $48B cap and 13× EV/sales on −$7B FCF and 6.4× leverage prices perfection the balance sheet cannot underwrite

The numbers on CoreWeave describe a company sprinting up a revenue cliff while loading the balance sheet to the breaking point. Revenue scaled from $229M in 2023 to $1.92B in 2024 to $5.13B in 2025, and the two most recent quarters—$2.08B and $2.58B—imply a run-rate already approaching $10B if the pace holds. Gross margin of 71.7% is genuinely elite for infrastructure and shows the GPU rental model can price like software when capacity is scarce. That is the entire bull case in the raw data: hypergrowth plus software-like gross profit on a purpose-built AI stack. Everything else is a red flag. Net losses are not shrinking in absolute terms; the last two quarters alone lost $740M and $626M. Free cash flow was −$7.25B on $10.31B of capex against only $3.06B of operating cash flow. The balance sheet carries $21.37B of debt against $3.13B of cash and $3.34B of equity, a 6.4× debt-to-equity ratio and a 0.46 current ratio that leaves almost no margin for a demand hiccup or a refinancing freeze. At $87.85 and a $48.5B market cap the stock trades at roughly 7.5× trailing sales and 13× EV/revenue while still deeply unprofitable—pricing that assumes the growth curve continues and the capital intensity magically normalizes.

The trajectory of losses and leverage is the contradiction the models underweight when they simply label this “pre-profit growth.” Operating margin is still negative (−0.9% annually), ROE is −35%, and ROIC is essentially zero. Sequential revenue is still rising, but the year-over-year growth rate has already decelerated from the 700%+ phase into the high-100s, and the secondary signals correctly flag low revenue confidence and a decelerating quarterly trend. Insider activity in August 2026 was a cluster of option exercises paired with open-market sales—not catastrophic, but consistent with liquidity-taking rather than accumulation at these levels. The company is generating real operating cash, which is better than pure cash-combustion startups, yet that cash is being immediately overwhelmed by capacity build-out that has not yet proven it can earn its cost of capital once GPU scarcity eases.

The strongest case against this read is straightforward and must be taken seriously: if AI training and inference demand remains supply-constrained for another two to three years, CoreWeave’s installed base becomes a toll bridge with 70%+ gross margins and the current −$7B FCF is simply growth capex that converts to owner earnings once utilization stabilizes. A $10B-plus revenue run-rate already in sight, combined with any sustained improvement in operating leverage, could make today’s 13× EV/sales look cheap in hindsight if the firm reaches $20B-plus revenue with mid-20s free-cash-flow margins. Customer lock-in via specialized clusters and multi-year contracts could blunt hyperscaler pricing pressure longer than the base rate suggests, and the positive operating cash flow demonstrates the unit economics work before growth spending. That path is coherent; it is also the path already fully discounted in the $48B equity value and the $21B debt stack.

I would reverse to a constructive stance only on clear evidence that the capital intensity is cresting—specifically, two consecutive quarters of free-cash-flow improvement toward breakeven, a material reduction in net debt or a lengthening of the maturity wall, and sequential revenue growth that holds above 15% without gross-margin compression below 65%. Absent those, the stock is a leveraged call option on perpetual GPU scarcity priced as if the option is already deep in the money.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.0; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ +0.0 vs panel · self: 2.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ +0.0 vs panel · self: 3.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ +0.0 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-24 05:42:08
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Pass / avoid at $87.85 — revisit only on a narrative crack 8/10
Explosive AI-infra revenue growth cannot mask distress-zone balance sheet and severe dilution; at $87.85 this is a narrative-priced call option, not an investment.
The cruxWhether the capital markets financing spigot stays open long enough for GPU unit economics and hyperscaler contracts to bend cash burn positive before dilution and refinancing risk crush per-share value.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from CRWV's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwayCritical Runway
DilutionHeavy Dilution
Earnings QualityWeak — Some Red Flags
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
-81
Fragile
edge √Σ 63 · risk √Σ 174 · conf 8/10

CoreWeave is scaling revenue explosively ($229M to $1.92B to $5.13B across 2023-2025, with gross margins in the low-70s) but the business consumes cash at an extraordinary rate: FCF was -$7.25B in 2025 on top of -$5.95B in 2024, and net income remains deeply negative (-$1.17B in 2025). Operating margin actually reversed from +16.9% in 2024 to -0.9% in 2025, undermining the story that scale brings profitability. OCF/NI of -2.96x and accruals at -14.4% of assets reflect the capex-and-financing-heavy model rather than clean earnings power. The balance sheet is the dominant fact: net debt of $18.21B against $3.16B liquid cash, short-term debt of $6.71B alone exceeding cash, and a computed runway under two quarters at the current burn. Altman Z of 0.44 sits squarely in the distress zone. Meanwhile diluted share count doubled from 218M to 436M in a single year (a 50.7% CAGR) and SBC runs 12.3% of revenue with zero buyback offset, so per-share economics are being crushed even as top-line compounds. Insider behavior compounds the picture: 83 sales and zero open-market buys over the last 12 months ($94.8M sold), and the most recent tape shows the CEO and multiple officers systematically exercising options and selling into the market. Nothing here suggests fraud, but this is a capital-hungry, dilution-heavy, debt-laden business whose survival depends on continued access to financing and customer demand holding up.

Strengths 2
m55
Explosive revenue scaling
Revenue 22x in two years ($229M to $5.13B) with gross margin sustained around 71-74%, indicating real product-market demand in AI compute.
m30
Gross margin durability
GM held at 71.7% in 2025 versus 74.3% in 2024 despite explosive growth, suggesting unit economics on the compute layer are not collapsing.
Concerns 6
m90
Distress-zone balance sheet
Net debt -$18.21B, short-term debt $6.71B exceeds $3.16B cash, Altman Z 0.44, computed runway ~1.7 quarters. Survival is contingent on ongoing capital markets access.
m85
Massive per-share dilution
Diluted shares went 192M to 218M to 436M in three years (50.7% CAGR); SBC 12.3% of revenue with zero buyback. Per-share value erosion is severe.
m80
Cash burn accelerating with revenue
FCF worsened from -$1.11B to -$5.95B to -$7.25B as revenue scaled; OCF/NI at -2.96x. Growth is not self-funding and burn is deepening in absolute terms.
m60
Operating margin reversal
OpM went +16.9% in 2024 to -0.9% in 2025 despite revenue nearly tripling, undermining the operating-leverage thesis at this stage.
m55
Uniform insider selling
83 sells and zero open-market buys over 12 months ($94.8M); recent tape shows CEO Intrator and multiple officers exercising and selling in coordinated fashion on 2026-08-20.
m45
Beneish M-score flag
M-score of 0.14 exceeds the -1.78 threshold, statistically elevated manipulation indicators; not proof, but a caution flag layered on aggressive accounting attributes of a capex-heavy model.
This is a business firing on the revenue cylinder while every survival metric flashes red. The playbook (borrow heavily, issue equity heavily, buy GPUs, sign hyperscaler contracts) works only as long as the financing spigot and AI demand both hold. Runway under two quarters, distress-zone Altman Z, doubling share count in one year, and a total absence of insider buying against $94.8M of selling tell me management is not treating this as a fortress compounding machine but as a landgrab that must be monetized personally now. Real business, real demand, but fragile state; a single financing hiccup or hyperscaler contract renegotiation would be existential.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Debt maturity ladder and covenants on the $6.71B short-term debt, and whether customer prepayments or delivery-linked financings are collateralized against GPU assets
  • Customer concentration (Microsoft and other hyperscaler share of revenue) and contract duration/take-or-pay structure
  • Capex commitments and lease obligations relative to booked revenue backlog
  • Terms of any convertible notes and warrant overhang contributing to the diluted-share explosion
  • Whether the 2025 OpM decline reflects one-time IPO-related SBC or structural cost creep
  • 10b5-1 plan status behind the August 2026 insider sales cluster
Valuation / Mispricing
+0
edge √Σ 0 · risk √Σ 0
Cheap signals 0

None surfaced.

Rich / priced-in 0

None surfaced.

General Sentiment
+36
Tailwind
tail √Σ 121 · head √Σ 83 · conf 7/10

CRWV sits at the epicenter of the AI-infrastructure narrative, which is currently one of the most intense story arcs in the market. The tape is mildly risk-on, the VIX is subdued, and the archetype (platform-monopoly, purpose-built GPU cloud) is exactly what momentum money wants to own. Recent news flow is overwhelmingly narrative-reinforcing: Tepper piled in, an HRT/Vera Rubin deal amplifies the specialized-AI-demand story, Shkreli covered his short, and pieces are running with headlines like 'Stock Will Double.' For a high-beta, story-driven, pre-profit name, that is the sentiment cocktail that keeps a bid under the stock. Counter-pressure is real but secondary: BCA Research's capital-destruction warning, an insider sale by the CEO, and a bear framing around debt-fueled capex are starting to seed doubt about durability. The stock is ~90% story per the brief, so any crack in the neocloud narrative would land hard here specifically because there is no fundamental floor to catch it. For now the narrative is intact and intensifying, but durability is only 'moderate' and the recent 167.9% is decelerating vs the 373.4% long-term rip, hinting the mania is maturing rather than accelerating. Net: still a tailwind, but not the strong-tailwind reading it would have been a quarter ago.

Tailwinds 4
m78
Neocloud narrative at peak intensity
AI-infrastructure is the market's dominant story and CRWV is the purest listed expression. Strong intensity plus medium cult coefficient means marginal buyers keep showing up on any dip.
m62
High-profile smart-money endorsement
Tepper initiating a position and Cathie Wood adding are exactly the validators that momentum/narrative names feed on; amplifies the bull frame in a way that hits THIS name directly.
m55
Short-side capitulation and deal flow
Shkreli covering plus the HRT/Vera Rubin win give the tape fresh bull ammo and remove a visible short overhang in a name where sentiment > fundamentals.
m40
Risk-on tape favors high-beta story stocks
VIX 15, mildly risk-on regime — the exact environment where a high-beta, pre-profit narrative name outperforms. Modest because the regime is only nascent.
Headwinds 4
m55
'Capital destruction' bear frame gaining voice
BCA Research explicitly flagging neoclouds as debt-funded capital destroyers is the first credible counter-narrative. For a 90%-story stock, a competing story is the real risk vector.
m42
Macro: high rates punish capital-intensive pre-profit names
10y at 4.69% and market PE 25.8 create a specific headwind for a highly leveraged, capex-heavy, unprofitable infrastructure buildout — CRWV is unusually rate-sensitive versus a defensive compounder.
m35
CEO insider sale optics
Intrator selling $1.2M is small in dollars but feeds the bear narrative and gives skeptics a headline; matters more for a story stock than for a fundamentals stock.
m30
Momentum decelerating vs long-term trend
Recent 167.9% vs 373.4% CAGR suggests the parabolic phase is cooling. Not a reversal, but the easy narrative-driven beta is fading.
The non-fundamental pressure on CRWV is net positive but noisier than it was. The neocloud narrative is still the dominant force in this name, and with Tepper in, Shkreli out, and headlines calling for a double, the tape is set up to keep rewarding it in a risk-on regime. But I am watching the BCA 'capital destruction' frame carefully — for a stock that is ~90% story, a competing story is the only thing that matters, and this one has the ingredients (leverage, capex, hyperscaler competition) to stick. Call it a Tailwind, not a Strong Tailwind: the narrative is winning today, but its durability is only moderate and the counter-narrative just found its voice.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Whether the BCA-style 'debt-funded capex destroys capital' frame gains traction with sell-side or other macro strategists
  • Any hyperscaler pricing action (AWS/Azure GPU cuts) that would crack the pricing-power leg of the bull story
  • Follow-on insider sales or secondary offerings that would signal the story is being monetized from the inside
  • NVDA-linked catalysts (Vera Rubin ramp, allocation news) that either reinforce or undermine the specialized-AI moat narrative
  • A meaningful VIX spike or rates move that would disproportionately hit high-beta pre-profit names
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
+2
Growing
edge √Σ 131 · risk √Σ 129 · conf 7/10

The world is re-plumbing compute: training and, increasingly, inference workloads require dense, liquid-cooled, high-interconnect clusters that legacy general-purpose cloud footprints were not designed for. That mismatch is CoreWeave's entire reason to exist and it is a multi-year build, not a quarter. Against that, the financing environment is the counterweight — a 4.69% 10-year, a barely positive curve and macro headwinds make debt-funded GPU fleets more expensive exactly when the asset's useful economic life is uncertain (silicon generations turn faster than depreciation schedules). The honest structural read: demand for AI compute is very likely to keep growing for years, but the ECONOMICS of being the leveraged landlord of rapidly-obsoleting silicon are far less certain than the demand curve. Growth in revenue is the high-confidence part; growth in durable earnings power is the contested part.

Growth drivers 4
m82
Contracted backlog conversion
Growth is not demand-speculative: revenue recognition follows multi-year take-or-pay style capacity contracts with large model developers and hyperscale partners. Once power and racks energize, revenue prints almost mechanically, which is why +112% YoY held through the newest matched quarter.
m70
Massive share gain vs category
Recent YoY 167.9% against industry ~17-18% — a ~151pp gap. CoreWeave is absorbing a disproportionate share of net-new accelerated compute spend because purpose-built GPU clusters (networking, orchestration, chip management) beat retrofitted general-purpose cloud on time-to-cluster.
m48
Category still structurally expanding
Industry revenue CAGR 18.2% over 3 years with operating margins +7.7pp and net margins +9.3pp industry-wide. The pool CoreWeave fishes in is growing and getting more profitable, so growth does not require taking someone's shrinking business.
m57
Capacity as the binding constraint, not demand
Near-term revenue is gated by megawatts energized and GPU deliveries rather than order intake. That makes the next 2-4 quarters unusually forecastable to the upside if delivery schedules hold — a rare visibility advantage.
Growth risks 5
m65
Deceleration is already visible
Recent YoY stepped down from ~168% to ~112%, and the quarterly trend is flagged decelerating. Law-of-large-numbers math plus a widening comp base means the growth rate mechanically compresses each quarter even if absolute dollars keep rising.
m72
Customer and counterparty concentration
A small number of anchor AI customers underwrite the majority of contracted revenue. Any renegotiation, in-sourcing of silicon, or funding stress at a single counterparty converts a growth engine into a stranded-asset problem — this is the single largest variance driver in the out-years.
m61
Capital intensity and financing dependence
Growth is bought with debt-funded GPU and data-center capex against a 4.69% 10-year and macro headwinds. Net income remains negative (latest EPS -1.14) as depreciation and interest scale ahead of revenue. Tighter credit directly throttles the growth rate, not just the margin.
m50
Commoditization of GPU-hours
Hyperscalers can cross-subsidize compute pricing off existing footprints and ecosystem lock-in; new neoclouds keep entering. If per-GPU-hour pricing resets on contract renewals, revenue growth in years 2-3 decouples sharply from installed capacity growth.
m32
Sector cycle turning
Sector demand cycle reads slowdown (score -1) for Software-Infrastructure even as AI infrastructure booms. If enterprise AI budgets pause before inference demand fully industrializes, the digestion phase hits capacity-heavy operators hardest.
vs expectations: ~6m inline · 1y inline · 2-3y below
The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
Please log in to view trade setups
The Augustus trade-setup read is a members feature.
Log in
Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -12.0% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 24, 2026, CRWV was $86.38. We expect it to be $76.00 by Feb 2027. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 24, 2026.

Price when predicted$86.38
Our estimate for Feb 2027$76.00-12.0%
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

Community AI Feedback
No community reviews yet for CRWV. Be the first — hit How to Contribute, have any AI review this page, and paste its take back here.
My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.647 · fdb9d9c9 · 2026-09-21 02:01:21