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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 11, 2026
1 day ago · 100% complete · +6 refreshed

Terex Corporation

TEX NYSE Categories PDF
Industrials · Agricultural - Machinery
Norwalk, CT 06850, United States IPO 1980 terex.com Updated Jun 11, 3:00am
Price
$59.51
Market Cap
$4.4B
Employees
11,400
Beta
1.54
Avg Volume
1,213,595
CEO
Simon A. Meester
Business Description

Operating globally, Terex Corporation specializes in the production and distribution of aerial work platforms and a diverse range of materials processing equipment. Its operations are structured into two primary divisions: Aerial Work Platforms (AWP) and Materials Processing (MP). The AWP segment is responsible for the design, manufacturing, servicing, and marketing of access equipment, utility machinery, and telehandlers, primarily under the well-known Terex and Genie brands. This range encompasses items such as portable material and aerial lifts, articulating and telescopic booms (both trailer-mounted and self-propelled), scissor lifts, utility vehicles, and telehandlers. Additionally, it supplies essential components and spare parts. These products serve a broad spectrum of uses, including construction and upkeep of industrial, commercial, institutional, and residential structures, maintaining utility and telecommunication infrastructure, supporting construction and foundation drilling, general commercial activities, tree maintenance, and various infrastructure developments. The MP segment offers an extensive portfolio of materials processing and specialized machinery, distributed under numerous brands and business lines, including Terex, Powerscreen, Fuchs, EvoQuip, Canica, Cedarapids, CBI, Simplicity, Franna, Terex Ecotec, Finlay, Terex Washing Systems, Terex MPS, Terex Jaques, Terex Advance, ProStack, Terex Bid-Well, MDS, and Terex Recycling Systems. Its offerings include crushers, screening and washing systems, trommels, apron feeders, material handlers, a variety of cranes (pick and carry, rough terrain, tower), equipment for wood processing, biomass, and recycling, concrete mixer trucks, concrete pavers, and conveyors, along with necessary components and spare parts. These machines are crucial for diverse applications such as construction, infrastructure development, and recycling initiatives, as well as quarrying, mining, and general material handling. They also play a vital role in maintenance for lifting equipment or materials, landscaping, and the biomass production sectors. To support its clientele, Terex Corporation provides financing options facilitating the rental, leasing, and purchase of its equipment. Established in 1986, Terex Corporation maintains its headquarters in Norwalk, Connecticut.

Business History
Generated: Jun 11, 2026 3:02am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 11, 2026 3:00am (1d ago)
$59.51
-4.16 (-6.53%)
Day Range
$59.49 – $63.67
52-Week Range
$41.70 – $71.50
50-Day MA
$60.90
200-Day MA
$56.70
Volume
692,185.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $56.00
Consensus $81.33
High $100.00
(29 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 73,250,023.00
Float 71,168,257.00
Free Float 97.2%
High free float — 97.2% of shares trade freely, ~2.8% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 11, 2026 3:06am (1d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 11, 2026 3:06am (1d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 11, 2026 3:02am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
36.48
Stock Price: $59.51
EPS (Diluted): 3.36
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
1.68
Stock Price: $59.51
Total Equity: $2.10B
Shares: 66,300,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
11.29
Market Cap: $4.36B
Total Debt: $2.70B
Cash: $772.00M
EBITDA: $633.00M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$5.5B
Market Cap: $4.36B
Total Debt: $2.70B
Cash: $772.00M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
19.4%
Gross Profit: $1.05B
Revenue: $5.42B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
8.8%
Operating Income: $475.00M
Revenue: $5.42B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
4.1%
Net Income: $221.00M
Revenue: $5.42B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
3.9%
Net Income: $221.00M
Total Equity: $2.10B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
3.6%
Operating Income: $475.00M
Tax Rate: 24.3%
Equity: $2.10B
Total Debt: $2.70B
Cash: $772.00M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
2.30
Current Assets: $2.73B
Current Liabilities: $1.19B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.29
Short-Term Debt: $39.00M
Long-Term Debt: $2.66B
Total Debt: $2.70B
Total Equity: $2.10B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$81.76
Revenue: $5.42B
Shares: 66,300,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$31.60
Total Equity: $2.10B
Shares: 66,300,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$4.86
Operating CF: $440.00M
CapEx: -$118.00M
Shares: 66,300,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
1.3%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $59.51
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $221.00M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 11, 2026 3:02am
Compares TEX against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 11, 2026 3:05:25 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 11, 2026 3:06am (1d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $3.9B $4.4B $5.2B $5.1B $5.4B
Cost of Revenue $3.1B $3.5B $4.0B $4.1B $4.4B
Gross Profit $757.4M $871.0M $1.2B $1.1B $1.1B
Operating Expenses $429.4M $451.0M $540.0M $542.0M $576.0M
Operating Income $328.0M $420.0M $637.0M $526.0M $475.0M
Net Income $220.9M $300.0M $518.0M $335.0M $221.0M
EBITDA $365.5M $463.0M $699.0M $579.0M $633.0M
EPS $3.12 $4.38 $7.66 $5.00 $3.36
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 11, 2026 3:02am (1d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $266.9M $304.1M $371.0M $388.0M $772.0M
Total Current Assets $1.8B $2.0B $2.2B $2.3B $2.7B
Total Assets $2.9B $3.1B $3.6B $5.7B $6.1B
Current Liabilities $909.9M $998.6M $1.1B $1.1B $1.2B
Long-Term Debt $665.0M $769.4M $611.0M $2.6B $2.7B
Total Liabilities $1.8B $1.9B $1.9B $3.9B $4.0B
Total Equity $1.1B $1.2B $1.7B $1.8B $2.1B
Retained Earnings $936.9M $1.2B $1.7B $2.0B $2.1B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 11, 2026 3:06am (1d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $293.4M $261.2M $459.3M $326.0M $440.0M
Capital Expenditure -$59.7M -$109.6M -$127.2M -$137.0M -$118.0M
Free Cash Flow $233.7M $151.6M $332.1M $189.0M $322.0M
Acquisitions (net) -$42.7M -$50.1M -$23.8M -$2.0B $112.0M
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$3.0M -$101.3M -$62.8M -$49.0M -$56.0M
Net Change in Cash -$403.2M $37.2M $66.6M $17.0M $384.0M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 11, 2026 3:00am (1d ago)
Metric 2025 2026 2027 2028
Revenue $5.4B
$5.4B – $5.4B
$7.9B
$7.7B – $8.1B
$8.5B
$8.2B – $9.0B
$9.0B
$9.0B – $9.0B
EBITDA $772.8M
$771.4M – $774.3M
$1.1B
$1.1B – $1.2B
$1.2B
$1.2B – $1.3B
$1.3B
$1.3B – $1.3B
Net Income $326.6M
$324.3M – $328.9M
$329.7M
$314.3M – $342.2M
$400.3M
$351.8M – $448.8M
$427.4M
$346.3M – $508.5M
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 11, 2026 3:06am (1d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +13.7% +16.6% -0.5% +5.7%
Gross Profit Growth +15.0% +35.1% -9.3% -1.6%
Operating Income Growth +28.0% +51.7% -17.4% -9.7%
Net Income Growth +35.8% +72.7% -35.3% -34.0%
EBITDA Growth +26.7% +51.0% -17.2% +9.3%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 11, 2026 3:05am (1d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-04 CARROLL PATRICK S A-Award 56.00 $63.26 $3,543
2026-06-04 JOHNSTON STEPHEN S-Sale 379.00 $63.19 $23,949
2026-06-04 KONG-PICARELLO JENNIFER A-Award 31.00 $63.26 $1,961
2026-05-13 JOHNSTON STEPHEN F-InKind 1,799.00 $62.82 $113,013
2026-05-07 KONG-PICARELLO JENNIFER A-Award 20.00 $63.36 $1,267
2026-05-07 CARROLL PATRICK S A-Award 37.00 $63.36 $2,344
2026-05-04 Gross Joshua S-Sale 5,874.00 $61.53 $361,427
2026-04-07 KONG-PICARELLO JENNIFER A-Award 21.00 $58.88 $1,236
2026-04-07 CARROLL PATRICK S A-Award 39.00 $58.88 $2,296
2026-04-07 Jindal Namita A-Award 187.00 $59.00 $11,033
2026-04-01 Dreasher John Lee 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-01 Jindal Namita 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-20 CARROLL PATRICK S F-InKind 32.00 $58.73 $1,879
2026-03-20 GEORGE AMY F-InKind 14.00 $58.73 $822
2026-03-20 Gross Joshua F-InKind 9.00 $58.73 $529
2026-03-20 Hegarty Kieran F-InKind 33.00 $58.73 $1,938
2026-03-20 JOHNSTON STEPHEN F-InKind 8.00 $58.73 $470
2026-03-20 KONG-PICARELLO JENNIFER F-InKind 6.00 $58.73 $352
2026-03-20 MEESTER SIMON F-InKind 49.00 $58.73 $2,878
2026-03-20 POSNER SCOTT F-InKind 26.00 $58.73 $1,527
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 11, 2026 3:00am (1d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-08 $0.17 2026-05-22 2026-06-08 2026-06-22
2026-03-06 $0.17 2026-02-06 2026-03-06 2026-03-19
2025-11-10 $0.17 2025-10-16 2025-11-10 2025-12-19
2025-08-11 $0.17 2025-07-17 2025-08-11 2025-09-19
2025-06-06 $0.17 2025-05-14 2025-06-06 2025-06-20
2025-03-07 $0.17 2025-02-06 2025-03-07 2025-03-19
2024-11-08 $0.17 2024-10-14 2024-11-08 2024-12-19
2024-08-09 $0.17 2024-07-30 2024-08-09 2024-09-19
2024-06-06 $0.17 2024-05-23 2024-06-06 2024-06-20
2024-03-07 $0.17 2024-02-08 2024-03-08 2024-03-19
2023-11-08 $0.17 2023-10-12 2023-11-09 2023-12-19
2023-08-11 $0.17 2023-07-11 2023-08-14 2023-09-19
2023-06-05 $0.15 2023-05-18 2023-06-06 2023-06-20
2023-03-08 $0.15 2023-02-09 2023-03-09 2023-03-20
2022-11-09 $0.13 2022-10-13 2022-11-10 2022-12-19
2022-08-11 $0.13 2022-07-13 2022-08-12 2022-09-19
2022-06-03 $0.13 2022-05-19 2022-06-06 2022-06-21
2022-03-08 $0.13 2022-02-10 2022-03-09 2022-03-21
2021-11-08 $0.12 2021-10-21 2021-11-09 2021-12-17
2021-08-11 $0.12 2021-07-16 2021-08-12 2021-09-20
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for TEX.
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-11 03:06:03
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Overvalued cyclical mid-downturn — fair value $42-48 vs. $59.51 spot; the Q1 2026 net loss invalidates the "trough earnings already priced in" thesis. Wait for margin inflection or a $45 handle.

Looking at the raw trajectory first: quarterly net income has collapsed from $140.7M in Q2 2024 to a $93M LOSS in Q1 2026, on revenue that actually grew to $1.73B (the ESG/Environmental Solutions acquisition is doing the lifting on the top line). Margins went from 10.2% → -5.4% in seven quarters. That's not "cyclical softening," that's a company eating acquisition integration costs on top of a genuine AWP downturn. Full-year 2025 NI of $221M is down 34% from 2023's $518M despite revenue being $270M higher — operating margin compressed from 12.4% to 8.8%. FCF of $322M on a $4.36B market cap is a 7.4% yield, which sounds attractive until you note FCF was running materially higher pre-cycle and the Q1 2026 loss likely means TTM FCF is deteriorating fast.

The prior models are talking past each other and it's not subtle. Pre-flight calls it a cyclical-industrial-duo pricing in trough earnings. Valuation Synthesis says it's "disconnected from fundamentals" in a BULLISH direction (cheap). Market Forces calls it a distressed over-leveraged name to AVOID. Market Narrative pegs DCF anchor at $37.50 with a 59% narrative premium — i.e., overvalued. These cannot all be right. The Synthesis model is anchored on a stale 17.7x P/E that doesn't match the file's own 36.5x TTM figure — that's a real error, because Q1 2026's loss has crushed TTM earnings and the multiple is no longer "cheap." At 36x trailing earnings on a cyclical with collapsing margins and negative recent earnings CAGR (-34.7%), the "discount" thesis evaporates.

The contrarian case — and I think it's the correct one here — is that the market is NOT pricing trough earnings; it's pricing a hoped-for recovery that may not arrive on schedule. AWP demand correlates with non-residential construction and rental fleet refresh cycles; United Rentals and Ashtead have both signaled cautious 2026 capex. The ESG acquisition added revenue but also debt (the balance sheet tile shows "—" for total debt, which is itself a red flag — the file is incomplete on the most important line item for a leveraged cyclical mid-downturn). EV/EBITDA of 11.3x is not cheap for an industrial at this point in the cycle; Caterpillar trades ~14x but with vastly better margins and scale, and Oshkosh trades ~9x with a stronger defense backlog. The insider activity is genuinely neutral-to-negative — multiple sales, only small awards, no conviction buys near $59. If management thought this was trough, you'd expect open-market purchases.

I dissent from the Valuation Synthesis "undervalued cyclical recovery" framing and side with Market Forces and the Narrative layer's $37.50 DCF anchor — though I'd put fair value at $42-48, slightly above pure DCF, because Genie is a real franchise with aftermarket pull-through and ESG diversification has long-term merit. The 1.28% dividend yield offers minimal support. The path to $59 being right requires: (1) Q2-Q3 2026 margins inflecting back to 6%+, (2) the Q1 loss being primarily one-time integration charges rather than demand destruction, and (3) no further rate-driven non-resi softening. That's three conditions, each maybe 50/50, compounding to roughly coin-flip odds — and you're paying full price for that coin flip. Revenue growth of 5.7% YoY is entirely acquisition-driven; organic is likely negative. The "Strong Cash Flow Quality" tag is backward-looking and will deteriorate as working capital normalizes post-acquisition. Wait for either (a) a Q2 2026 print showing margin stabilization above 5%, or (b) the stock at $45 where you're paid for the cyclical risk. Owning here is paying mid-cycle multiples for late-cycle earnings during an integration with incomplete balance sheet disclosure.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-11 03:06:13
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus — overvalued at $59.51 with a fair value closer to $45, pending successful margin recovery and integration of the ESG acquisition benefits.

In analyzing Terex Corporation, the financial trajectory over recent quarters is quite telling. The company has seen its quarterly revenue grow significantly, from $1.23 billion in Q1 2025 to $1.73 billion in Q1 2026. However, this revenue growth has not translated into profit, with a sharp net income decline from $140.7 million in Q2 2024 to a $93 million loss in Q1 2026. The overall margins have plummeted, from a high of 10.2% in Q2 2024 to a negative 5.4% in the most recent quarter, indicating severe operational challenges, likely exacerbated by acquisition integration costs and a downturn in the Aerial Work Platforms (AWP) segment. The annual income figures further highlight this trend, with 2025 showing a net income of $221 million, down from $518 million in 2023, despite higher revenues, suggesting significant margin compression.

Opus argues that Terex is overvalued given the recent financial performance, pegging a fair value between $42 and $48. I agree with Opus on the overvaluation at the current price of $59.51. The 36.5x P/E ratio, in the context of declining earnings and a negative recent earnings CAGR of -34%, does not support a valuation that implies a recovery in the near term. The Q1 2026 net loss undermines any thesis that trough earnings are already priced in, aligning with Opus's skepticism about the market's optimistic pricing of a swift recovery. Furthermore, the insider transactions, predominantly sales, provide no confidence in the stock's current valuation.

However, I diverge from Opus in assessing the company's strategic positioning. While Opus suggests waiting for margin inflection or a price drop to a $45 handle, I believe that the investment thesis rests more heavily on assessing the integration and impact of the ESG acquisition. Terex's attempt to diversify through this acquisition could offer long-term strategic benefits that may not be immediately apparent in the current financials. The cash flow from operations and free cash flow remain relatively strong, with a 7.4% yield, which could buffer against short-term operational headwinds.

A careful skeptic of both perspectives might argue that while the financial indicators point to a current overvaluation, the historical cyclicality of the industrial sector and Terex's dominant position in the AWP market could provide a base for eventual recovery. They would caution against underestimating the potential positive impact of the acquisition once integration challenges are resolved and might highlight that the market's forward-looking nature often prices in expected recoveries before they appear in the financials.

Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
Two separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?) and Valuation (is it mispriced?), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-11 03:07:40
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Pass at $59 — bid in the low-$40s 8/10
Decent cyclical operator priced like a secular compounder — quality is fine (-6, Mixed), but the price (-91, Rich) is the whole story and the answer is wait.
The cruxWhether mid-cycle margins re-expand from 8.8% or keep rolling — that single variable decides if $59 is fair or 35% too high.
Company Quality
-6
Mixed
edge √Σ 87 · risk √Σ 92 · conf 6/10
Valuation / Mispricing
-91
Rich
edge √Σ 25 · risk √Σ 116 · conf 6/10
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The Play — combined read across both lenses Delvantic - Cairn AI

The two lenses don't really disagree — they tell a coherent story. Quality at -6 says this is a competently run, FCF-positive cyclical with clean accounting and real buyback discipline, but no moat and a balance sheet that quietly got worse ($1.9B net debt, grey-zone Z). That's a 'fine if cheap' business, not a 'own through the cycle' compounder. Then valuation at -91 tells me I'm being asked to pay peak-cycle multiples on earnings that have already halved from the 2023 peak, with the bull case fully embedded. There is no version of this where I pay $59 for a -6 quality score with rolling margins. Pass.

My play: zero position today, TEX goes on the watchlist with a $42 trigger and a $36 'back up the truck' level. At $42 I start a 1% nibble — that's where the Genie franchise premium gets me to deserved value and I'm at least not paying for the bull case. At sub-$38 with any sign margins are stabilizing (one clean quarter of gross margin holding ~20%, or order book inflecting), I scale to a 3-4% position — clean earnings quality and the buyback give me confidence the downside math is real there. What flips me bullish earlier: a genuine margin re-expansion print, not management commentary. What keeps me away even at $45: further deterioration in operating margin toward 7% or any debt refinancing stress. This is a price-and-patience trade, not a thesis trade — and at $59.51 I'm not in the game.

The evidence behind each score — switch lenses
-6 Mixed edge √Σ 87 · risk √Σ 92 · conf 6/10

Terex puts up the hallmarks of a respectable industrial: revenue grew from $3.89B (2021) to $5.42B (2025), FCF is consistently positive ($322M in 2025), OCF/NI of 1.21x and accruals of -0.6% of assets indicate clean earnings, Beneish M of -2.57 shows no manipulation flags, and diluted shares shrank from 70.9M to 66.3M (-1.7% CAGR) with buybacks running 199% of SBC. That is genuine per-share value protection in an industry where dilution is common.

The concerns are operational and structural. Operating margin peaked at 12.4% in 2023 and has since compressed to 8.8% in 2025 — below the 2022 level — while net income has nearly halved from $518M (2023) to $221M (2025) on roughly flat revenue. Gross margin slipped from 22.8% to 19.4% in two years. Meanwhile net debt sits at $1.93B against $772M of cash, and Altman Z of 2.57 lands in the grey zone — fine in good times, uncomfortable in a cyclical trough. The 2025 FCF rebound to $322M is encouraging but came alongside earnings deterioration, suggesting working capital release rather than improving fundamentals.

Insider tape is unhelpful: zero open-market buys, $2.3M of sales over twelve months, mostly small option/award-related dispositions. No conviction signal either way.

Strengths 3
m55
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.21x, accruals -0.6% of assets, Beneish M -2.57 — the reported numbers appear real, no aggressive accounting signatures.
m50
Disciplined share count
Diluted shares down from 70.9M to 66.3M (-1.7% CAGR); buybacks at 199% of SBC means management is a net buyer protecting per-share value.
m45
Reliable FCF generator
Five consecutive years of positive FCF averaging ~$246M, with $322M in 2025 — the business self-funds even as earnings swing.
Concerns 4
m65
Margin compression is real
Operating margin fell from 12.4% (2023) to 8.8% (2025); gross margin from 22.8% to 19.4%. Net income halved from $518M to $221M on flat revenue — the 2023 peak looks like the cycle high, not a new baseline.
m55
Leverage is a constraint
Net debt of $1.93B vs $772M cash; Altman Z 2.57 (grey zone). Manageable while FCF holds, but the balance sheet is no cushion if the cycle deepens — likely tied to recent M&A given the debt step-up.
m30
Cyclical exposure with no obvious moat in the data
Revenue flat at ~$5.1-5.4B for three years while margins compress suggests pricing power is limited and the business takes the cycle on the chin.
m20
No insider conviction
Zero open-market buys, ~$2.3M in sales over twelve months — neutral but no signal of management seeing value at current operating performance.
This is a competent, honestly-run cyclical industrial — not a great business. The earnings are clean, the share count discipline is genuinely above average for the sector, and FCF shows up every year. But strip away the accounting hygiene and you have a company whose margins peaked in 2023, whose net income is now back at 2021 levels, and which loaded $1.9B of net debt onto a grey-zone balance sheet. The quality of the operator is solid; the quality of the underlying business is average cyclical equipment-maker. I'd call it Mixed leaning Solid — durable enough to survive, not exceptional enough to compound through cycles unaided.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Source of the net debt step-up — confirm whether the ~$1.9B reflects the Environmental Solutions acquisition and what synergy/deleveraging path management has committed to
  • Backlog and book-to-bill trends in AWP and Materials Processing segments to gauge whether margin compression is cyclical or competitive
  • 2025 FCF composition — how much came from working capital release vs operating performance
  • Customer/end-market concentration (rental channel exposure, construction vs infrastructure mix)
  • Debt maturity ladder and covenant headroom given the grey-zone Altman Z
-91 Rich edge √Σ 25 · risk √Σ 116 · conf 6/10
Price $59.51 vs deserved ~$37-45 — stock sits 30-40% above the reasonable range, negative margin of safety. attractive below $42.00

The e2e composite pegs deserved value at $37.51 — roughly 37% below the $59.51 print. That FV looks directionally credible because it lines up with the cyclical reality: 2023 was the margin peak, net income is back at 2021 levels, and the balance sheet absorbed $1.9B of net debt to get here. Earnings quality is clean (no haircut needed), and the Genie franchise plus aftermarket stream do deserve a premium versus pure-play cyclicals — call it a $42-45 deserved range once you give credit for the duopoly aerial position. Even on that more generous frame, the stock is ~30-40% above deserved.

What's priced in at $59.51 is essentially the bull case: infrastructure supercycle extends multiple more years, margins re-expand from here, and the debt load gets refinanced cheaply. That is a coherent story but it is a story — and it's the consensus story at the top of a cycle that has already started rolling over. There is no margin of safety; the market is paying full late-cycle price for a mid-cycle business with a worsening balance sheet. Quality is mixed, deserved value is below price, and the gap is the wrong way.

Cheap signals 2
m20
Genie franchise deserves premium to raw FV
Duopoly aerial position and aftermarket annuity argue deserved value is closer to $42-45 than the $37.51 model output — narrows but does not close the gap.
m15
Clean earnings, no quality haircut
Earnings-quality signal is high (score 2) — no need to discount the reported numbers further, which limits downside on the FV math.
Rich / priced-in 4
m70
Composite FV ~37% below price
e2e composite and signal-adjusted FV both at $37.51 vs $59.51 — a ~37% overvaluation signal even before quality adjustments.
m65
Paying peak multiple as margins roll
Margins peaked in 2023 and net income has reverted to 2021 levels, yet the stock trades as if the peak is durable — classic late-cycle mispricing for a cyclical.
m55
Balance sheet quietly worse
$1.9B net debt added means EV/price gap has widened — equity holders are paying yesterday's multiple on a more levered enterprise.
m35
Bull case is the priced case
Sustained IRA/infrastructure tailwind and Genie pricing power are required to grow into $59 — not optionality, but the base case the market already underwrites.
I can't get excited about TEX here. The composite says $37.50, I'll generously gross that up to the low-$40s for the Genie franchise, and the price is still $59. That's not 'fairly valued and I'm being picky' — that's paying a peak multiple on cyclical earnings that have already begun rolling over, on a balance sheet that's meaningfully more levered than the last time the stock was at this level. I need it in the low-$40s before the risk-reward is interesting, and I'd want evidence the margin slide is stabilizing before I'd act even there.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Forward order book / backlog trend in Aerials and Materials Processing — is backlog still shrinking?
  • Updated FY guidance for revenue, margin, and FCF — specifically whether margin compression is stabilizing
  • Net debt trajectory and refinancing maturity wall post the recent acquisition spend
  • Aftermarket / parts revenue mix — the more durable slice, key to deserved value
  • Channel inventory at rental customers (URI, HEES commentary) as a leading indicator
Two lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality is price-agnostic; Valuation is price-conditional. The scores are not blended (yet). Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.330 · 344c2a54 · 2026-06-09 20:20:16