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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-07): Designation Watch · Gem Score -10 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 70 · Value -64 · Sentiment 38 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $207.43 vs $362.54 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Analog Devices, Inc.
ADI NASDAQAnalog Devices, Inc. is a global semiconductor company that designs, manufactures, and markets high-performance analog, mixed-signal, and digital signal processing solutions. The company’s products help bridge the physical and digital worlds by sensing, measuring, powering, connecting, and interpreting signals in electronic systems. Its portfolio includes data converters, amplifiers, power management components, RF and microwave devices, sensors, and software-enabled subsystems used across industrial automation, automotive systems, communications infrastructure, healthcare, energy, and instrumentation. Analog Devices serves customers that build equipment for connected devices, precision measurement, mobility, and advanced electronics, making it an important supplier in the broader electronics supply chain. Headquartered in Wilmington, Massachusetts, Analog Devices focuses on technologies that support reliable performance in complex applications where accuracy, efficiency, and signal integrity are essential.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 4.56
Total Equity: $33.82B
Shares: 496,709,000
Total Debt: $8.15B
Cash: $2.50B
EBITDA: $3.34B
Total Debt: $8.15B
Cash: $2.50B
Revenue: $11.02B
Revenue: $11.02B
Revenue: $11.02B
Total Equity: $33.82B
Tax Rate: 16.4%
Equity: $33.82B
Total Debt: $8.15B
Cash: $2.50B
Current Liabilities: $3.25B
Long-Term Debt: $8.15B
Total Debt: $8.15B
Total Equity: $33.82B
Shares: 496,709,000
Shares: 496,709,000
CapEx: -$533.55M
Shares: 496,709,000
Stock Price: $380.29
Net Income: $2.27B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 7:00am (69d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.3B | $12.0B | $12.3B | $9.4B | $11.0B |
| Cost of Revenue | $2.8B | $4.5B | $4.4B | $4.0B | $4.2B |
| Gross Profit | $4.5B | $7.5B | $7.9B | $5.4B | $6.8B |
| Operating Expenses | $2.8B | $4.3B | $4.1B | $3.3B | $3.8B |
| Operating Income | $1.7B | $3.3B | $3.8B | $2.0B | $2.9B |
| Net Income | $1.4B | $2.7B | $3.3B | $1.6B | $2.3B |
| EBITDA | $1.9B | $3.6B | $4.2B | $2.4B | $3.3B |
| EPS | $3.50 | $5.29 | $6.60 | $3.30 | $4.59 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.46 | $5.25 | $6.55 | $3.28 | $4.56 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 12:10am (69d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $2.0B | $1.5B | $958.1M | $2.0B | $2.5B |
| Total Current Assets | $5.4B | $4.9B | $4.4B | $5.5B | $7.1B |
| Total Assets | $52.3B | $50.3B | $48.8B | $48.2B | $48.0B |
| Current Liabilities | $2.8B | $2.4B | $3.2B | $3.0B | $3.2B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | $6.5B | $5.9B | $6.6B | $8.1B |
| Total Liabilities | $14.3B | $13.8B | $13.2B | $13.1B | $14.2B |
| Total Equity | $38.0B | $36.5B | $35.6B | $35.2B | $33.8B |
| Retained Earnings | $7.5B | $8.7B | $10.4B | $10.2B | $10.5B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 7:00am (69d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $2.7B | $4.5B | $4.8B | $3.9B | $4.8B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$343.7M | -$699.3M | -$1.3B | -$730.5M | -$533.6M |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.4B | $3.8B | $3.6B | $3.1B | $4.3B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$25.0M | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$45.7M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$500.0M | -$400.0M |
| Dividends Paid | -$1.1B | -$1.5B | -$1.7B | -$1.8B | -$1.9B |
| Stock Buybacks | -$2.6B | -$2.6B | -$3.0B | -$615.6M | -$2.2B |
| Net Change in Cash | $922.1M | -$507.4M | -$512.5M | $1.0B | $508.1M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 7:00am (69d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +64.2% | +2.4% | -23.4% | +16.9% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +66.5% | +4.6% | -31.7% | +25.9% |
| Operating Income Growth | +93.8% | +16.6% | -46.8% | +44.3% |
| Net Income Growth | +97.7% | +20.6% | -50.7% | +38.7% |
| EBITDA Growth | +85.2% | +16.7% | -42.4% | +39.4% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 12:03am (68d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | $1.10 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-03 | $1.10 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-08 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-02 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-04 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-04 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-09 | $0.92 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-03 | $0.92 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-04 | $0.92 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-04 | $0.92 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-01 | $0.86 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-01 | $0.86 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-02 | $0.86 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-24 | $0.86 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-02 | $0.76 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-29 | $0.76 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-27 | $0.76 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-24 | $0.76 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-02 | $0.69 | — | — | — |
| 2021-08-26 | $0.69 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-10-02 02:02A +1σ run of quarters pays -30%; a −1σ run costs 84%. Ratio -0.4:1 (μ 22.0%, σ 22.2% , 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): -0.7 : 1
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($362.54) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +37% | 34.3% | $220.53 | -39% |
| Base — stabilizes | +25% | 29.8% | $138.31 | -62% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +12% | 25.3% | $83.74 | -77% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +26% | 32.8% | $155.44 | -57% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +44% | 32.8% | $254.15 | -30% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | -0% | 26.3% | $58.35 | -84% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-09-17 16:14The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
The quarterly trajectory is the story here and it's genuinely striking: revenue has gone from $2.44B (Nov-24) to $4.02B (Aug-26), a 65% climb in seven quarters, and net margin from 19.6% to 33.3%. TTM revenue now runs ~$13.88B vs the FY25 annual of $11.02B — a 26% step-up. TTM net income annualizes to roughly $4.14B, putting real P/E closer to ~42x (matching the FMP tag) rather than the 79x the thesis-evaluation module cited off stale FY25 EPS. That's a material error in the bear framing: the synthesis is anchored to a trough-year denominator that the business has already blown past. The "decelerating quarterly trend" flag in secondary signals is simply wrong — sequential growth was +1.3%, +2.6%, +14.6%, +14.5% — that's acceleration, not deceleration.
That said, the synthesis's core skepticism isn't crazy, it's just imprecisely argued. A cleaner bear case: ADI's peak annual earnings were $3.31B in FY23 on $12.31B revenue (26.9% net margin). We're now running $13.88B/$4.14B TTM — 29.8% net margin, which is above prior-cycle peak. This is either (a) a new structural margin plateau driven by mix shift into auto/industrial analog and Maxim synergies finally landing, or (b) a cyclical overshoot as inventory-restocking amplifies operating leverage on a fixed cost base. History says analog cycles overshoot in both directions; assuming 30%+ net margins are the new normal is exactly the extrapolation error the thesis-eval module flagged, just applied to the right number. On normalized 26-27% net margin against $14B revenue, you get ~$3.7B earnings, and at a generous 30x mature-compounder multiple that's ~$111B — well below the $175B cap. At 35x you get $130B. Fair value likely sits $270-310, not the synthesis's $231 (which used trough earnings) nor the current $362.
The narrative layer is doing real work here and the platform-monopoly framing is half-right: ADI's data converters and power-management franchises are genuinely defensible, gross margins of 65.8% confirm pricing power isn't a fantasy. But ROIC of 10.7% TTM (and 6.1% on annual basis per the anomaly flag) is mediocre for a business the market is valuing at 13.4x sales and 34.7x EV/EBITDA — those multiples imply Texas Instruments-plus economics, and ADI isn't quite there. Debt/equity of 0.27 and $4.28B FCF are fine but not fortress-like; the $2.5B cash position against $9B debt is unremarkable. Insider activity is net-selling (option exercises immediately dumped, small open-market sales) — not alarming but not confidence-inspiring at these multiples either.
Where I disagree with the synthesis: the $207 composite fair value is too low because it's built on stale earnings; the pre-flight's mention of "$4.56 EPS implied" is roughly half of the actual TTM run-rate near $8.30. Where I agree: even correcting for that, $362 requires believing peak-cycle margins persist AND revenue keeps compounding at 20%+ — a combination that has never held for analog semis across a full cycle. The 33.7% recent YoY is a cyclical rebound off a soft comp ($2.44B in Nov-24 was clearly a trough), not a durable growth rate. Contrarian angle worth naming: if hyperscaler capex holds through 2027 and ADI's content-per-AI-rack thesis proves real, TTM revenue could push $16-17B at 32%+ margins and today's price looks reasonable — but that's the bull case fully baked in, with zero margin of safety. I'd put fair value at $270-300, making the stock ~15-25% overvalued rather than the synthesis's 36% — meaningfully overvalued but not egregiously so, and definitely not a short.
GPT Reading
What jumps out first is that the business has clearly turned up hard, but the stock already reflects not just recovery, but a near-best-case interpretation of that recovery. On a trailing basis through 2026-08-01, ADI has done $13.88B of revenue and about $4.14B of net income, which means the company is already above the weak 2025 trough and back past the 2023 revenue peak of $12.31B, while still carrying excellent profitability at 65.8% gross margin, 35.6% operating margin, and 29.8% net margin. The quarterly cadence is impressive: revenue went from $3.08B in the 2025-11 quarter to $3.16B, then $3.62B, then $4.02B, while net margin expanded from 25.6% to 26.3%, 32.5%, and 33.3%. That is a real cyclical snapback, not accounting noise. But at $362.54, the market cap is $175.4B, equal to 12.8x trailing sales, roughly 43x trailing earnings, and 34.8x EV/EBITDA for a company whose own recent history includes revenue falling from $12.31B in 2023 to $9.43B in 2024 before recovering. Those are extraordinary multiples for an analog semiconductor company, even a very good one.
The bullish case from the raw numbers is quality plus resilience. ADI converts profit to cash well: the last reported annual free cash flow was $4.28B on $4.81B of operating cash flow with only $534M of capex, and the balance sheet is fine with $9.04B of debt against $2.50B of cash and $33.82B of equity. Unlike many semiconductor names, this is not a fragile capital structure or a story built on nonexistent margins. Return metrics have also inflected sharply, with TTM ROE at 12.2% and ROIC at 10.7%, both far above the stale annual figures, which matches the quarter-by-quarter earnings acceleration. If I isolate the current run rate, the latest quarter annualizes to about $16.1B of revenue and $5.4B of net income. On that more optimistic earnings power, the stock is nearer 32x earnings than 43x. That is still rich, but at least it is not absurd if one believes the latest quarter is sustainable and still climbing.
My problem is that the market is paying a premium multiple on what is still a cyclical hardware company exactly when the financial profile looks strongest. The numbers do not show a new business model; they show a rebound. Even after this surge, the latest trailing net income of $4.14B is only about 25% above 2023’s $3.31B, while the equity value is far above where a normal analog name would trade on that level of earnings power. Price-to-book at 5.3x and dividend yield at 1.18% also tell you this is not being valued as a mature compounder with modest cyclicality; it is being valued as a scarce secular winner. Maybe that narrative holds, but the burden of proof is high. If ADI merely earns through the cycle rather than above it, today’s valuation leaves little protection. I can justify a premium to peers for margin quality and diversified exposure to industrial and auto, but not a valuation that assumes the current upcycle should be capitalized at software-like multiples.
The strongest case against my caution is that the historical framework may understate how much structurally better ADI now is. The business has just posted four straight quarters of sequential revenue growth, with the latest quarter up nearly 40% from the year-ago quarter and net income up about 159% versus the $518.5M posted in 2025-08. Gross margin at 65.8% and net margin near 30% are elite, and if revenue has genuinely reset into a $15B-$16B range with mix improvement, the stock can “grow into” a valuation that screens expensive today. The annual figures also mask how dramatic the inflection has been; anyone anchoring on 2025’s $11.02B revenue and $2.27B net income is missing that the business has already run far ahead of that. I weigh that argument less heavily because semis always look cheapest on forward optimism at the top of a recovery, and ADI’s own 2023-to-2024 drawdown showed how quickly “structural” narratives can bend to inventory and capex cycles.
What would change my mind is simple: I need evidence that the latest quarter is not just the high-water mark of a rebound. If ADI can hold quarterly revenue above $4.0B for the next two quarters, keep net margin around or above 30%, and translate that into a trailing free-cash-flow run rate comfortably above $5B, then the premium deserves more respect and fair value moves materially higher. Conversely, if revenue stalls back in the mid-$3B range or margins slip back toward the mid-20s, the stock should de-rate hard because the current multiple assumes durability, not just recovery.
Grok Reading
The numbers tell a clean cyclical recovery that has already overshot the prior peak and is now being valued as if the peak is a permanent floor. Trailing-twelve-month revenue through 2026-08-01 sits at roughly $13.88B ($4.02B + $3.62B + $3.16B + $3.08B), above the $12.31B annual high of fiscal 2023, while TTM net income of about $4.14B delivers a 30% net margin versus 27% in that earlier peak year. Sequential momentum is still intact—latest quarter revenue jumped 11% QoQ to $4.02B with net margin at 33.3%—and free-cash-flow conversion remains excellent, with the last full-year print at $4.28B FCF on only $533M of capex. Balance sheet leverage is modest (net debt roughly $6.5B, debt-to-equity 0.27). The operating story is therefore strong: Analog Devices has exited the 2024 trough ($9.43B revenue, $1.64B NI) with both volume and profitability ahead of the prior cycle high.
What the price embeds is another matter. At $362.54 and a $175B market cap the stock trades at 43x TTM earnings, 12.8x sales and 35x EV/EBITDA. Those multiples would be defensible only if the current $14B revenue run-rate and mid-30s operating margins were the mid-cycle base rather than late-cycle strength. History says otherwise: the same franchise did $12B then $9.4B within two years. The 19.6% revenue CAGR and 58% earnings CAGR cited in the momentum block are almost entirely cycle math from the trough; they are not evidence of a structural step-change in the growth algorithm of a mature analog supplier. Insider flow is neutral-to-soft (option exercises followed by sales, no meaningful open-market buying). In short, the fundamentals have healed; the multiple still prices perpetual AI-and-electrification acceleration that analog content dollars have never delivered at this valuation.
The strongest counter-argument is quality and cash. Gross margin holds at 66%, operating margin has expanded to 35.5% TTM, ROIC has doubled from the depressed annual print to 10.7% TTM, and FCF yield on a normalized mid-cycle number is still attractive for a franchise with genuine design-in stickiness across industrial, automotive and communications. A bull can fairly claim that Maxim integration plus content gains in power management and data converters justify a permanent premium to Texas Instruments’ typical 25–30x band, and that $5B-plus annual FCF power at the current run-rate supports a mid-30s cash-flow multiple closer to today’s equity value. That case is coherent if—and only if—hyperscaler and auto capex remain robust and competitive intensity in signal-chain stays muted. I weigh it as real but insufficient: even generous normalization still leaves the shares 20–30% above a cash-flow-supported range once cycle mean-reversion is allowed for.
I would reverse the call on two concrete developments: four consecutive quarters of revenue holding above $4.0B with net margins stable north of 30% (proving the new level is not peak), or a clear re-acceleration in bookings/guidance that lifts credible forward revenue toward $16–17B within two years without margin give-up. Either would justify the current multiple; absent that evidence the stock remains priced for a durability the cycle has not yet confirmed.
Qwen Reading local experiment · off-panel
The most glaring contradiction in this briefing is the disconnect between the "Mature Earner" classification and the explosive recent financials. The rule-based model labels ADI as a mature business with 0.7 confidence, yet the data shows a company in the midst of a violent cyclical upswing: revenue has jumped from $2.42B in Q1 2025 to $4.02B in Q3 2026, a 66% increase in just two years. Net margins have expanded from 16.1% to 33.3%, and free cash flow has surged to $4.28B annually. This is not the profile of a stagnant mature earner; it is a company experiencing a demand shock, likely driven by the AI infrastructure and industrial automation recovery. The "Valuation Synthesis" model’s verdict of "overvalued" with a fair value of $230.76 is dangerously outdated because it relies on a composite that appears to anchor on the depressed 2025 earnings base ($2.27B NI) rather than the current run-rate. At $362.54, the stock trades at a TTM P/E of 43x, which looks expensive against the 2025 annual net income of $2.27B, but if we annualize the last two quarters (NI of $1.34B + $1.18B = $2.52B semi-annual, or ~$5.04B annualized), the forward P/E drops to roughly 35x. For a semiconductor company with 33% net margins and 19.6% revenue CAGR, 35x is not a bubble; it is a reasonable premium for a leader in high-margin analog and mixed-signal chips.
The "Thesis Evaluation" scores the stock at -9, citing "Cyclical Peak Extrapolated as Permanent Baseline" as the top bear case. This is a classic value trap argument, but it ignores the structural shift in ADI’s customer base. The "Market Narrative" correctly identifies the "platform-monopoly" archetype, but the bear case underestimates the stickiness of analog content in AI data centers. Unlike digital logic, which is commoditized, analog signal chains (power management, data converters) are design-in critical and have long replacement cycles. The recent YoY earnings growth of 111.2% is not just a cyclical blip; it reflects a genuine expansion in addressable market share as hyperscalers build out AI infrastructure. The "Revenue Confidence" flag of "Low" due to decelerating quarterly trends is a red herring; the deceleration is from a hyper-growth peak (Q3 2026 rev $4.02B vs Q2 2026 $3.62B is actually acceleration, not deceleration—wait, the data shows Q3 2026 $4.02B, Q2 2026 $3.62B, Q1 2026 $3.16B. This is accelerating sequentially. The "decelerating" flag in the secondary signals is factually incorrect based on the provided quarterly data. This is a critical error in the input data that invalidates the bearish momentum signal.
The strongest case against my bullish read is the balance sheet and the insider activity. ADI carries $9.04B in debt against $2.50B in cash, a net debt position of $6.54B. While the debt-to-equity ratio of 0.27 is manageable, the interest expense will pressure margins if the cycle turns. More concerning is the insider selling: 10,000 shares sold in September 2026, 1,000 in August, and 2,683 in August. While these are small numbers relative to the float, the consistent pattern of sales (S-Sale) alongside option exercises (M-OptionExercise) suggests insiders are monetizing their positions at these elevated levels. The "Macro Headwinds" signal also adds a layer of risk; if global industrial capex slows, ADI’s high operating leverage (operating margin 35.5%) will work against it, causing earnings to fall faster than revenue. The "Valuation Synthesis" model’s warning that "valuation is extremely fragile" is not wrong; it is just based on the wrong baseline. If the AI capex cycle stalls, the 43x TTM P/E will quickly become 60x+ on depressed earnings, making the stock vulnerable to a 30-40% drawdown.
What would change my mind is the next two earnings reports. If ADI guides for revenue growth below 10% YoY or if net margins compress below 28%, the "structural growth" thesis collapses, and the stock reverts to a cyclical commodity. Specifically, I am watching the "AI Infrastructure Analog Content Multiplier" thesis. If ADI fails to show significant share gains in data center power management against competitors like Texas Instruments or Renesas, the premium valuation is unjustified. Conversely, if they report a 20%+ increase in data center revenue, the 35x forward P/E is cheap. The "Market Forces" signal was unavailable, which is a gap, but the "Sector Intelligence" showing "Above Sector Benchmarks" supports the idea that ADI is outperforming peers. The key is whether this outperformance is driven by pricing power (good) or volume (risky). Given the 33.3% net margin, it is likely a mix of both, but the pricing power component is what justifies the premium.
In conclusion, the models are failing to capture the speed of ADI’s recovery. The "Mature Earner" label is a misclassification; this is a growth stock in a cyclical industry. The "Overvalued" verdict is based on a static view of earnings that ignores the 111% YoY earnings growth. The insider selling is a cautionary flag, but not a deal-breaker given the magnitude of the earnings surprise. The stock is fairly valued to slightly undervalued if the AI infrastructure build-out continues, but it is overvalued if the cycle peaks. Given the accelerating sequential revenue growth and expanding margins, I lean toward the former.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
The trajectory tells a clean cyclical story: revenue troughed at $9.70B in 2024 with operating margin compressing to 21.6%, then rebounded sharply to $13.88B (a fresh high) with GM% at 65.8% and OpM% at 35.5% in the TTM ending Aug-2026. Net income of $4.14B and FCF of $4.94B are both cycle highs, and OCF/NI of 1.88x plus accruals of -3.8% of assets indicate earnings are backed by cash, not accounting. Beneish M of -2.23 and Altman Z of 8.09 corroborate high earnings integrity. Diluted shares fell from 525.7M (2022) to 490.3M (2026), a -1.7% CAGR, with buybacks running 806% of SBC and SBC only 2.5% of revenue - genuine per-share value concentration, not the semi-industry norm of stealth dilution. The one blemish on the balance sheet is $6.96B net debt with just $2.17B liquid cash against $2.35B short-term debt, so near-term refinancing exposure exists - but $4.94B annual FCF makes this a working-capital choice, not a solvency concern. Durability is implied by the 60%+ gross margins that snapped back with volume, characteristic of the analog/mixed-signal franchise moat (long design cycles, sticky sockets). Insider activity is net-selling ($51M over 12 months, zero buys) but volumes are small relative to cap and mostly routine option-exercise/tax patterns - neutral, not a red flag.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Terms and maturity ladder of the $2.35B short-term debt and total debt stack
- Customer/end-market concentration (industrial vs auto vs comms) and any single-customer exposure
- Whether the 65.8% GM% is sustainable or reflects inventory-driven mix at the cycle peak
- M&A/integration status of prior deals (Maxim) and any goodwill impairment risk
- Whether SBC is fully offset in diluted share count or masked by buybacks
The composite fair value of $207.43 and signal-adjusted FV of $230.76 imply the stock is 36-43% overvalued at $362.54. The DCF anchor at $184.17 corroborates that; the EPV floor at $37 is a runaway output tied to trough cash flow and should be discounted, and the anchored-PE of $424 simply reflects that the market is currently paying a peak multiple on peak-ish earnings, so it is a price observation more than a deserved value. Even generously weighting the anchored-PE, a blended deserved value lands in the $230-260 range for a high-quality analog franchise at or near cycle peak.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Forward guidance on utilization and lead times to gauge cycle position
- Auto and industrial segment run-rate vs 2023-24 trough to test sustainability of peak margins
- Maxim synergy realization and any residual integration one-offs in reported OpM
- Hyperscaler/AI-linked revenue concentration disclosures
ADI is riding a strong platform-monopoly narrative as the 'analog backbone of AI' - a story the tape is currently rewarding across the analog cohort (TXN data center doubling, FPS record backlog). The Alif acquisition was cheered (+4.85%), the Cadence DSP partnership reinforces the AI-processing angle, and Industrial +53% y/y plus Communications surge give the bulls fresh proof points. Momentum is strong_positive (33.7% recent vs 19.6% long-term), which itself creates reflexive sentiment tailwind. The active narrative is intense and moderately durable - exactly the kind of story that keeps a bid under the stock. Offsets are real but secondary: a nascent risk-off tape (VIX 17.7, S&P -3.2% off highs) hits a beta-1.21 name harder than the market, and valuation-concern headlines have already produced -3-4% air pockets (Aug 28, Sept 14 relative-to-TXN weakness). Net: narrative and news flow lean clearly positive, macro is a mild crosswind - tailwind, not strong tailwind, because the risk-off tape and 'overvalued' whispers are live and this cohort trades violently on any AI-capex wobble.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Whether AI-capex commentary from hyperscalers stays supportive into next earnings cycle
- Any crack in the 'analog is AI-critical' narrative - a peer guide-down would spread fast
- VIX trajectory - a break above 20 with duration would flip the beta trade against ADI
- Analyst target revisions post-Alif deal - upgrades would confirm, silence would suggest the story is tiring
- Sector rotation signals - money leaving semis for defensives
The world is mid-normalization after the worst analog inventory correction since 2008-09. Factory automation and auto semiconductor content are recovering from depressed order books rather than expanding from strength; electrification and grid/energy build-out provide a slow structural tailwind; AI rack power delivery adds a genuinely new content line that did not exist for ADI three cycles ago. Against that, a 5% long rate and flagged macro headwinds cap industrial capex enthusiasm, and industry-wide margin compression says pricing power is being tested across the peer set. Net read: the direction of ADI's business is up, the second derivative is turning down, and the through-cycle earnings power is meaningfully higher than 2024 but far short of extrapolating the current rebound rate.
When we made this prediction on Sep 18, 2026, ADI was $369.91. We expect it to be $342.00 by Mar 2027, and we consider it great value under $240.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Sep 18, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.
Post-Report Due Diligence NOTES
Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.
trailing_eps
flips down 25%
adjusted_pe
flips down 25%