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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -17 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 56 · Value -76 · Sentiment 15 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $179.49 vs $380.29 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Analog Devices, Inc.
ADI NASDAQAnalog Devices, Inc. is a global semiconductor company that designs, manufactures, and markets high-performance analog, mixed-signal, and digital signal processing solutions. The company’s products help bridge the physical and digital worlds by sensing, measuring, powering, connecting, and interpreting signals in electronic systems. Its portfolio includes data converters, amplifiers, power management components, RF and microwave devices, sensors, and software-enabled subsystems used across industrial automation, automotive systems, communications infrastructure, healthcare, energy, and instrumentation. Analog Devices serves customers that build equipment for connected devices, precision measurement, mobility, and advanced electronics, making it an important supplier in the broader electronics supply chain. Headquartered in Wilmington, Massachusetts, Analog Devices focuses on technologies that support reliable performance in complex applications where accuracy, efficiency, and signal integrity are essential.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 4.56
Total Equity: $33.82B
Shares: 496,709,000
Total Debt: $8.15B
Cash: $2.50B
EBITDA: $3.34B
Total Debt: $8.15B
Cash: $2.50B
Revenue: $11.02B
Revenue: $11.02B
Revenue: $11.02B
Total Equity: $33.82B
Tax Rate: 16.4%
Equity: $33.82B
Total Debt: $8.15B
Cash: $2.50B
Current Liabilities: $3.25B
Long-Term Debt: $8.15B
Total Debt: $8.15B
Total Equity: $33.82B
Shares: 496,709,000
Shares: 496,709,000
CapEx: -$533.55M
Shares: 496,709,000
Stock Price: $380.29
Net Income: $2.27B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 7:00am (24d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.3B | $12.0B | $12.3B | $9.4B | $11.0B |
| Cost of Revenue | $2.8B | $4.5B | $4.4B | $4.0B | $4.2B |
| Gross Profit | $4.5B | $7.5B | $7.9B | $5.4B | $6.8B |
| Operating Expenses | $2.8B | $4.3B | $4.1B | $3.3B | $3.8B |
| Operating Income | $1.7B | $3.3B | $3.8B | $2.0B | $2.9B |
| Net Income | $1.4B | $2.7B | $3.3B | $1.6B | $2.3B |
| EBITDA | $1.9B | $3.6B | $4.2B | $2.4B | $3.3B |
| EPS | $3.50 | $5.29 | $6.60 | $3.30 | $4.59 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.46 | $5.25 | $6.55 | $3.28 | $4.56 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 12:10am (24d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $2.0B | $1.5B | $958.1M | $2.0B | $2.5B |
| Total Current Assets | $5.4B | $4.9B | $4.4B | $5.5B | $7.1B |
| Total Assets | $52.3B | $50.3B | $48.8B | $48.2B | $48.0B |
| Current Liabilities | $2.8B | $2.4B | $3.2B | $3.0B | $3.2B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | $6.5B | $5.9B | $6.6B | $8.1B |
| Total Liabilities | $14.3B | $13.8B | $13.2B | $13.1B | $14.2B |
| Total Equity | $38.0B | $36.5B | $35.6B | $35.2B | $33.8B |
| Retained Earnings | $7.5B | $8.7B | $10.4B | $10.2B | $10.5B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 7:00am (24d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $2.7B | $4.5B | $4.8B | $3.9B | $4.8B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$343.7M | -$699.3M | -$1.3B | -$730.5M | -$533.6M |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.4B | $3.8B | $3.6B | $3.1B | $4.3B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$25.0M | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$45.7M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$500.0M | -$400.0M |
| Dividends Paid | -$1.1B | -$1.5B | -$1.7B | -$1.8B | -$1.9B |
| Stock Buybacks | -$2.6B | -$2.6B | -$3.0B | -$615.6M | -$2.2B |
| Net Change in Cash | $922.1M | -$507.4M | -$512.5M | $1.0B | $508.1M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 7:00am (24d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +64.2% | +2.4% | -23.4% | +16.9% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +66.5% | +4.6% | -31.7% | +25.9% |
| Operating Income Growth | +93.8% | +16.6% | -46.8% | +44.3% |
| Net Income Growth | +97.7% | +20.6% | -50.7% | +38.7% |
| EBITDA Growth | +85.2% | +16.7% | -42.4% | +39.4% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 12:03am (22d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | $1.10 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-03 | $1.10 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-08 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-02 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-04 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-04 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-09 | $0.92 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-03 | $0.92 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-04 | $0.92 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-04 | $0.92 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-01 | $0.86 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-01 | $0.86 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-02 | $0.86 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-24 | $0.86 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-02 | $0.76 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-29 | $0.76 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-27 | $0.76 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-24 | $0.76 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-02 | $0.69 | — | — | — |
| 2021-08-26 | $0.69 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-23 02:38Even the bull case prices 61% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 60%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($380.29) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +23% | 34.3% | $148.14 | -61% |
| Base — stabilizes | +16% | 29.8% | $104.23 | -73% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +8% | 25.3% | $71.65 | -81% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +26% | 32.8% | $152.88 | -60% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw quarterly trajectory first: revenue has moved from $2.31B (Aug-24) → $3.62B (May-26), a 57% climb over seven quarters with net margin expanding from 17% to 32.5%. The most recent quarter's $1.18B NI annualizes to ~$4.7B — essentially matching the 2023 peak of $3.31B and blowing past it. If I annualize the last two quarters ($6.78B revenue, $2.01B NI), ADI is running at a ~$13.6B revenue / ~$4B NI pace. On $4B forward NI, the PE is ~46x, not 83x. That's still expensive, but it's a very different picture than the trailing-twelve-month synthesis is anchoring on ($11B revenue, $2.27B NI trailing).
This is where I part company with the synthesis. A $108 composite fair value implies ~$50B market cap on a business generating $4.28B FCF trailing and accelerating — that's ~12x trailing FCF for a franchise analog semi with 61% gross margins, mission-critical design-ins, and a demonstrable cyclical recovery in flight. The DCF anchor appears to be extrapolating the 2024 trough ($9.43B revenue, $1.64B NI) as steady-state rather than as the bottom it clearly was. The "revenue_cagr: -5.4%" and "earnings_cagr: -17.3%" figures are artifacts of measuring from the 2021-2023 cycle peak (post-Maxim inventory stuffing distortion) to the 2024 trough — they're not forward-looking. Recent YoY of +16.9% revenue and +38.7% earnings is the honest read, and the sequential margin recovery to 32.5% suggests operating leverage still has runway. Pre-flight got this right; synthesis and market-forces did not.
That said, the contrarian case has real teeth and I won't dismiss it. At $380 the stock trades at 17x sales and roughly 40-45x optimistic forward earnings — this is TXN-plus pricing on a company whose ROE is still only 6.7% and ROIC 6.2% (goodwill-heavy post-Maxim balance sheet). Payout ratio of 85% on trailing earnings tells you management doesn't see reinvestment opportunities to justify retained capital. Insider activity is entirely sales (no buys) even as the stock rips — small in size but directionally telling; nobody at ADI thinks $380 is cheap. Analog cycles are real: the 2023→2024 revenue drop of 23% will recur, and paying 40x through-cycle earnings for a business with structural 6-8% revenue growth is a compression risk if 10-year yields stay elevated or the industrial/auto recovery stalls. The narrative layer's "3.5x revenue vs peers at 2-2.5x" premium is precisely the vulnerable part.
My verdict: I dissent from the synthesis's -71.5% mispricing claim as mechanically wrong (wrong earnings base), but I agree directionally that the stock is expensive. Fair value on normalized ~$4-4.5B earnings at 28-32x (justified by franchise quality, matching TXN's premium band) is $500-580B... wait, that's per share $255-295 on ~485M shares. So ADI at $380 is roughly 25-40% above what I'd call a defensible fair value, not 70% above. This is a "quality business, wait for a cyclical wobble to $260-290" situation, not a short and not a screaming buy. The synthesis is right that it's overvalued but overstates the magnitude by anchoring on stale trough numbers; the pre-flight thesis about the market seeing through to normalized earnings is essentially correct and already partially validated by the last two prints. If the May-26 margin of 32.5% holds two more quarters, the bear case collapses and $380 gets re-underwritten as reasonable; if it reverts to 20-22% as Maxim synergy tailwinds fade, we're back to a $260 stock.
GPT Reading
The raw numbers say ADI is in a real cyclical rebound, but the stock price says the rebound is already old news and then some. Revenue troughed at $2.31B in the August 2024 quarter and has climbed sequentially for seven straight quarters to $3.62B by May 2026, a 57% recovery. Net income has improved even faster, from $392M to $1.18B, and quarterly net margin has expanded from 17.0% to 32.5%. That is not a broken business; it is a high-quality analog franchise coming out of an inventory correction with strong incremental margins. The problem is that even after acknowledging the cyclical upswing, the valuation is still extreme relative to the earnings and cash flow currently on the page. At a $185B market cap, the stock trades at roughly 16.8x trailing sales on $11.02B of FY2025 revenue and about 43x trailing free cash flow on $4.28B. Even if I annualize the latest quarter’s $1.18B of net income to a much healthier $4.7B run rate, the stock is still around 39x that earnings power. For a mature analog semiconductor company with annual revenue still below the 2023 peak of $12.31B, that is rich.
What stands out most is the mismatch between operating quality and valuation multiple. ADI deserves a premium because gross margin at 61.5% and operating cash flow of $4.81B on $11.02B revenue show a very real moat; this is not commodity silicon. The balance sheet is also fine: $8.15B debt against $2.50B cash and $33.82B equity is manageable, with a current ratio above 2. But the market is capitalizing ADI like a compounder with much faster top-line potential than the company has historically delivered through a cycle. Annual revenue went from $12.31B in 2023 down to $9.43B in 2024 before rebounding to $11.02B in 2025. That is a solid recovery, not a secular hyper-growth pattern. Return metrics are also weaker than the stock multiple implies: ROE of 6.7% and ROIC of 6.2% are not what you pay 57x EBITDA for unless you are certain those depressed returns are temporary and heading materially higher. Maybe they are, but the stock is priced as if normalization is both inevitable and substantial.
The best bull case against my read is that trailing annual metrics badly understate normalized earnings power right now. If the latest quarter is representative, ADI could be exiting the downturn with a revenue run rate above $14B and earnings power materially above the prior $3.31B peak net income in 2023. The recent year-over-year growth rates are strong — revenue up 16.9% and earnings up 38.7% — and sequential growth from $2.42B to $3.62B over five quarters suggests customers are reordering broadly, not just in one pocket. In analog, once utilization and mix improve, margins can snap back fast; the jump from 18.0% net margin in August 2025 to 32.5% in May 2026 shows exactly that. If ADI can sustain something like $14B-$15B revenue with operating leverage, then today’s valuation compresses faster than static screens imply. And compared with many semiconductor names, ADI’s cash generation is unusually resilient: $4.28B of free cash flow in FY2025 despite the cycle is a real floor under intrinsic value.
I still weigh that bullish data differently because the stock is not merely pricing a recovery; it is pricing a near-flawless normalization plus a structural premium. The payout ratio of 84.9% and dividend yield of just 1.1% tell you shareholders are not being paid much to wait at this price. Insider activity is all sales, and while the sizes are small enough that I would not make that a central point, it certainly does not contradict the idea that management sees the stock as full. Most importantly, even if I grant a generous normalized earnings number of $5B, the market cap still implies about 37x earnings for a cyclical analog leader whose annual revenue CAGR in the provided history is negative and whose 2025 sales still did not reclaim the 2023 high. That is the core issue: this is a very good company being valued like a great company with a long runway and unusually low cyclicality, and the historical numbers do not fully support that leap.
What would change my mind is straightforward. If the next two quarters hold revenue at or above $3.6B while net margin stays near or above 30%, then annualized earnings power above $4.5B becomes more credible, and I would revisit the degree of overvaluation. More decisively, if ADI posts a full fiscal year with revenue above the 2023 peak of $12.31B and free cash flow closer to $5.5B-$6.0B without balance-sheet strain, then the current premium would look less speculative. Until the company proves that this is not just a rebound from trough but a durable step-up in earnings capacity, I think the shares are priced too far ahead of the fundamentals.
Grok Reading
The quarterly tape tells a clean recovery story that the annuals alone obscure. Revenue has marched from a $2.31B trough in August 2024 to $3.62B in the May 2026 print, a 57% sequential climb over seven quarters, with net margin expanding from 17% to 32.5% and absolute NI nearly tripling from $392M to $1.18B. Annualizing that latest quarter produces a ~$14.5B revenue and ~$4.7B earnings run-rate—above the 2023 peak of $12.31B and $3.31B—so the cycle has not merely bottomed, it is already printing new highs at the operating line. Free cash flow of $4.28B on $11.02B of FY2025 revenue, against only $534M of capex, confirms the franchise still converts at elite rates, and the balance sheet (net debt ~$5.7B, D/E 0.24, current ratio 2.2) gives plenty of room to keep the 1.1% dividend and buybacks intact. That is the bullish arithmetic the price is celebrating.
The valuation arithmetic is where the story breaks. At $380 and $185B of enterprise value the stock clears 83× trailing earnings, 17× sales, and 57× EBITDA while generating a 6.2% ROIC and 6.7% ROE—returns that do not cover any reasonable cost of capital at this multiple. Even granting the run-rate $4.7B of NI, the forward PE is still ~39×; on the $4.28B of actual FCF the yield is a meager 2.3%. Revenue and earnings CAGRs over the multi-year window remain negative (–5.4% and –17.3%), so the multiple is not being paid for demonstrated growth but for an extrapolation that every industrial and auto design-win continues to compound at double digits indefinitely. Insider activity is all sales, secondary signals flag decelerating quarterly revenue confidence, and a payout ratio already at 85% leaves little cushion if the cycle rolls over. The $185B capitalization is pricing ADI as a structural compounder when the historical evidence still shows a high-quality cyclical.
The strongest counter-argument is that the DCF anchors near $110 and the composite fair-value work near $115 are too draconian for a franchise with genuine design-in stickiness, 61% gross margins, and FCF conversion above 35%. A normalized mid-cycle NI of $3.5–4.0B at a 30–35× multiple—premium but not unprecedented for top-tier analog—lands closer to $220–280, and the recent margin spike to 32.5% suggests Maxim synergies and mix may be better than the “disappointing integration” narrative allows. FCF CAGR of +9.7% through the downturn also argues the trough was less damaging than the earnings CAGRs imply. Those points have merit; they simply do not bridge a gap from ~$250 of fundamental value to $380 of market price without assuming a permanent 3.5×+ revenue multiple that peers do not sustain.
I would reverse to neutral or better only if two things arrive together: sustained quarterly revenue above $3.8B with net margins holding ≥30% for three consecutive prints (proving the run-rate is structural, not snap-back), and clear evidence that industrial/auto end-demand can support mid-teens earnings growth for several years rather than a classic semi mean-reversion. Absent that, the recovery is real and the business is excellent, but the stock has already discounted a flawless cycle plus a scarcity premium the numbers do not yet earn.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
ADI is a mature, high-quality analog semiconductor business. Gross margins run in the 57-64% band, operating margins 22-31%, and FY2025 delivered $11.02B revenue, $2.27B net income, and $4.28B free cash flow — FCF actually exceeded net income (OCF/NI 1.91x, accruals -3.8% of assets), which is a strong earnings-quality signal. Altman Z of 8.67 and Beneish M of -2.75 corroborate: no mechanical red flags. The 2024 trough (revenue -23% to $9.43B, op margin compressing to 21.6%) reflects the analog inventory cycle, and FY2025 shows a clear recovery in both revenue (+17%) and margins (op margin back to 26.6%). This is textbook cyclical-but-durable behavior for a diversified analog franchise. Balance sheet is the one area of nuance: $3.65B liquid cash against net debt of $4.49B — largely legacy Maxim-deal leverage. Not a threat given $4.28B/yr FCF (net debt ~1x FCF), but it's a constraint, not a cushion. The bigger structural drag is the diluted share count: 401M (2021) to 523M (2022, Maxim close) and only bled down to 496.7M by 2025 — the 5.5% CAGR mostly reflects the acquisition, not ongoing SBC abuse (SBC is a modest 2.9% of revenue, and buybacks are 7.5x SBC). Still, per-share compounding has been muted despite the buyback intensity. Insider tape is neutral: routine 10b5-1-style selling by Ray Stata and Karen Golz, no buys, but volumes are small relative to holdings and not a red flag.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Segment-level revenue and margin trends (Industrial, Automotive, Communications, Consumer) to confirm which end-markets drove the 2024 trough and 2025 recovery
- Customer and end-market concentration disclosures in the 10-K
- Debt maturity schedule and interest coverage detail behind the $4.49B net debt figure
- Whether the 2022 share count jump ties fully to Maxim consideration vs any subsequent issuance
- Detail on Ray Stata insider sales — 10b5-1 plan status and remaining beneficial ownership
The e2e composite pegs deserved value at $115 (signal-adjusted $109) against a $380 price - a nominal 70% overvaluation. I discount that gap: the EPV floor of $53 is a no-growth liquidation-style anchor that ignores ADI's durable moat, and the DCF at $100 likely uses conservative growth assumptions for a business earning structural high margins. The anchored-PE of $208 is the most business-appropriate lens and still leaves the stock ~45% above deserved value. Layer in the Strong quality grade (fortress FCF, negative accruals, sticky analog design-ins) and I'll credit a premium above $208 - call deserved value $230-280 for a high-quality, cyclical-but-durable analog platform. That still leaves price ~35-65% above what the business earns. Market cap of $185B implies the bull narrative (irreplaceable platform, decades of pricing power, secular EV/industrial tailwinds) is fully in the tape. What has to go right: sustained mid-teens revenue growth AND margin expansion AND meaningful buybacks to shrink the post-Maxim share count. That is a heroic stack for a cyclical semi at a cycle-mid multiple. Margin of safety is negative; this is not cheap on any framework I'd defend.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Forward revenue guidance and book-to-bill trajectory across industrial/auto segments
- Gross and operating margin trend through the current cycle vs prior peaks
- Buyback pace and net share count reduction post-Maxim
- Capex and R&D intensity vs peers to confirm moat reinvestment
- Any one-time items inflating current EPS that the anchored-PE method may be extrapolating
The tape is mildly risk-on (VIX 16.5, S&P at highs) and ADI's 1.19 beta lets it participate, but this is not a story-stock cult so the macro lift is moderate rather than turbocharged. The active narrative - ADI as the irreplaceable analog layer for EVs, 5G, industrial IoT, robotics - is strong and durable, and it is being actively reinforced this week by the MassRobotics sponsorship headline and by a broader sector news flow dominated by AI-driven chip demand (MCHP, MKSI, VECO, SITM, CGNX all framed positively into prints). That halo effect is a real tailwind for ADI even without company-specific catalysts. Against that, momentum is mixed: recent 16.9% rebound is constructive, but the 3-year trend is negative and a -1.51% day into a rising market shows the name is not being aggressively bid. The whispered bear - $185B cap on a mature, cyclical analog franchise - is quiet but present in the background, and macro pressure (10y 4.7%, market PE 26.9) is a real crosswind for a high-multiple compounder like this. Net: narrative and sector tone lean positive, macro leans mildly negative, and the story is durable enough to absorb the crosswind - a modest tailwind, not a decisive one.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Peer semi prints next week (MCHP, MKSI, VECO) - a broad beat-and-raise cements the AI halo tailwind, a guide-down flips sector sentiment
- ADI's own next print and analyst target revision tone
- 10y yield direction - a move toward 5% would sharpen the multiple-compression headwind
- Any crack in the analog-moat narrative (share loss commentary, pricing pressure) that would puncture the durability premium
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 5, 2026, ADI was $380.29. We expect it to be $348.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $240.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 5, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.