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OLDER Analysis Report
Aug 27, 2026
41 days ago · 100% complete
This report is 41 days old — newer filings and price moves since then are not reflected.
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (TDY) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-07): Designation Low · Gem Score -26 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 51 · Value -78 · Sentiment 42 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $401.23 vs $633.56 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysis — the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Teledyne Technologies Incorporated

TDY NYSE
Technology · Scientific & Technical Instruments
Thousand Oaks, CA 91360-2362, United States teledyne.com Updated Aug 27, 4:00am
Price
$633.56
Market Cap
$29.4B
Employees
15,800
Beta
0.92
Avg Volume
383,705
Last Dividend
$0.85
CEO
Mr. George C. Bobb III

Teledyne Technologies Incorporated is an industrial technology company that designs and supplies advanced electronic systems, instruments, and imaging products. Teledyne serves a broad range of end markets through business segments that support aerospace and defense, marine systems, digital imaging, instrumentation, and engineered solutions. Its portfolio includes sensors, cameras, surveillance and monitoring systems, analytical instruments, and communication technologies used in demanding industrial, scientific, and mission-critical environments. The company also provides specialty components and software that help customers collect, analyze, and transmit data across land, sea, air, and space applications. Teledyne Technologies Incorporated plays an important role in markets where precision, reliability, and rugged performance are essential, supporting customers in government, commercial, and industrial sectors.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 27, 2026 4:46am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$633.56
as of Aug 27, 4:00am (41d ago)
Change · Aug 27
+6.66 (+1.06%)
Day Range
$629.31 – $639.03
52-Week Range
$483.02 – $697.67
50-Day MA
$647.29
200-Day MA
$610.23
Volume
238,224.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 41d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 46,328,578.00
Float 45,809,603.00
Free Float 98.9%
High free float — 98.9% of shares trade freely, ~1.1% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026 6:33am (41d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026 6:33am (41d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 27, 2026 4:41am
P/E · trailing (TTM) (Price per dollar of earnings over the past year — not a run-rate or forward P/E)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
33.56
Stock Price: $633.56
EPS (Diluted): 18.88
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.86
Stock Price: $633.56
Total Equity: $10.51B
Shares: 47,400,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
21.38
Market Cap: $29.37B
Total Debt: $2.48B
Cash: $352.40M
EBITDA: $1.49B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$31.8B
Market Cap: $29.37B
Total Debt: $2.48B
Cash: $352.40M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
42.8%
Gross Profit: $2.61B
Revenue: $6.12B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
18.8%
Operating Income: $1.15B
Revenue: $6.12B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
14.6%
Net Income: $894.80M
Revenue: $6.12B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
8.5%
Net Income: $894.80M
Total Equity: $10.51B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
7.4%
Operating Income: $1.15B
Tax Rate: 18.2%
Equity: $10.51B
Total Debt: $2.48B
Cash: $352.40M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.64
Current Assets: $3.06B
Current Liabilities: $1.86B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.24
Short-Term Debt: $450.10M
Long-Term Debt: $2.03B
Total Debt: $2.48B
Total Equity: $10.51B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$129.02
Revenue: $6.12B
Shares: 47,400,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$221.81
Total Equity: $10.51B
Shares: 47,400,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$22.66
Operating CF: $1.19B
CapEx: -$117.30M
Shares: 47,400,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.1%
Last Dividend: $0.85
Stock Price: $633.56
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $894.80M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 27, 2026 4:41am
Compares TDY against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026 6:33am (41d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $4.6B $5.5B $5.6B $5.7B $6.1B
Cost of Revenue $2.8B $3.1B $3.2B $3.2B $3.5B
Gross Profit $1.8B $2.3B $2.4B $2.4B $2.6B
Operating Expenses $1.2B $1.4B $1.4B $1.4B $1.5B
Operating Income $624.3M $972.0M $1.0B $989.1M $1.1B
Net Income $445.3M $788.6M $885.7M $819.2M $894.8M
EBITDA $996.1M $1.3B $1.4B $1.3B $1.5B
EPS $10.31 $16.85 $18.80 $17.43 $19.12
EPS (Diluted) $10.05 $16.53 $18.49 $17.21 $18.88
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026 4:00am (41d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $474.7M $638.1M $648.3M $649.8M $352.4M
Total Current Assets $2.4B $2.8B $3.0B $2.9B $3.1B
Total Assets $14.4B $14.4B $14.5B $14.2B $15.3B
Current Liabilities $1.5B $1.5B $1.8B $1.3B $1.9B
Long-Term Debt $4.1B $3.6B $2.6B $2.6B $2.0B
Total Liabilities $6.8B $6.2B $5.3B $4.6B $4.8B
Total Equity $7.6B $8.2B $9.2B $9.6B $10.5B
Retained Earnings $3.8B $4.6B $5.4B $6.3B $7.1B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026 6:33am (41d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $824.6M $486.8M $836.1M $1.2B $1.2B
Capital Expenditure -$101.6M -$92.6M -$114.9M -$83.7M -$117.3M
Free Cash Flow $723.0M $394.2M $721.2M $1.1B $1.1B
Acquisitions (net) -$3.7B -$99.6M -$77.7M -$123.7M -$821.4M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $4.0B -$185.0M $0 — —
Dividends Paid — — — — —
Stock Buybacks — $0 $0 -$354.0M -$402.9M
Net Change in Cash -$198.4M $163.4M $10.2M $1.5M -$297.4M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026 6:33am (41d ago)
Metric 2023 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +18.3% +3.2% +0.6% +7.9%
Gross Profit Growth +26.6% +4.7% -0.2% +7.4%
Operating Income Growth +55.7% +6.4% -4.4% +16.2%
Net Income Growth +77.1% +12.3% -7.5% +9.2%
EBITDA Growth +30.9% +3.6% -3.8% +14.4%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 20, 2026 7:19am (48d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
1996-08-06 $0.31 — — —
1996-05-06 $0.31 — — —
1996-03-07 $0.13 — — —
1996-02-15 $0.10 — — —
1995-11-02 $0.10 — — —
1995-08-17 $0.10 — — —
1995-05-02 $0.10 — — —
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-10-05 02:01
-0.8 : 1 +1σ upside vs −1σ downside, from this company's own quarterly history
A +1σ run of quarters pays -52%; a −1σ run costs 68%. Ratio -0.8:1 (μ 6.8%, σ 4.3% floored by sector, 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): -0.8 : 1
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($633.56)
Bull — recovery +12% 17.6% $322.29 -49%
Base — stabilizes +8% 15.3% $251.06 -60%
Bear — keeps slipping +4% 13.0% $191.93 -70%
Stress — last quarter repeats +7% 15.0% $236.66 -63%
Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) +11% 16.8% $301.17 -52%
Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) +3% 14.8% $204.94 -68%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2025-09-28) — growth stays at 6.7% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.98). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +8.7% · operating income +16.7% · net income +20.1% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Sep 28, 2025 (revenue +6.7%, operating income +4.5% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 28, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for TDY — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-27 06:43

The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.

Growing Teledyne is growing again — 8.7% revenue, 17% operating income on defense/marine strength and real margin expansion — but it grows slower than its booming category and nowhere near the ~28% the price assumes. conf 7/10
Share loss Category growing · Category is booming (12.4% 3yr industry CAGR, 12.1% median recent growth); Teledyne grows 7.9-8.7% — positive but roughly 7pt behind. It is riding the tide, not making it.
Next 2 quarters
Growing
Backlog-supported defense/marine revenue plus visible operating leverage; two consecutive beats and margin expansion argue the next two prints land in the high-single-digit revenue, low-to-mid-teens EPS growth zone. No mechanism in view for a near-term break.
↑ above expectations
Year 1
Growing
Full-year should print mid-to-high single-digit revenue with double-digit EPS as defense contributions layer in and margins hold; the decelerating quarterly trend and softer non-defense capex cap the upside.
≈ inline with expectations
Years 2–3
Holding
Structurally, the record is 4.2% revenue and ~0% earnings CAGR with a 7pt share gap to a booming category. Absent a change in the portfolio, earnings power grows at mid-single digits at best and depends on continued bolt-on acquisitions rather than organic product wins. Direction is stable, not compounding.
↓ below expectations
The creme: each rung's call measured against what's already printed (vs analyst estimates · vs guidance / FY consensus · vs price-implied growth) — expectations in print are already in the price, so only the variant margin can pay. Hover a rung's chip for the margin read.
Growth drivers
60 Defense, marine and unmanned demand — Segments tied to DoD/allied rearmament, subsea and unmanned platforms are the identifiable engine behind the +8.7% revenue and the two consecutive EPS beats (+8%, +6%). Multi-year defense budget cycles and European rearmament make this a funded, backlog-visible driver rather than a sentiment story.
53 Operating leverage on stable mix — Operating income +16.7% and net income +20.1% on +8.7% revenue means roughly 2x incremental leverage — pricing plus cost discipline in Instruments/Imaging. Earnings can grow well above revenue for several more quarters even at mid-single-digit top line.
41 FCF-funded bolt-on machine — FCF CAGR of 22% against 4.2% revenue CAGR gives dry powder for the acquisition cadence that has historically supplied most of Teledyne's growth. Inorganic revenue is a repeatable mechanism here, though it dilutes the 'organic growth' read.
34 Category boom — Scientific & technical instruments in a confirmed boom phase (category median growth 12.1%, industry 12.4% 3yr CAGR) means the rising tide supports orders, pricing and margin retention even for a slower-growing participant.
Growth risks
60 Share loss inside a booming category — Recent YoY 7.9% vs industry 15.3% — a 7.5pt gap. Teledyne is participating in the boom at roughly half the category rate, consistent with a mature, acquisition-dependent portfolio rather than a product-cycle winner. This is the single most important structural fact.
53 Mature underlying earnings power — Five-year revenue CAGR 4.2% and earnings CAGR 0.5% — the current 20% net income growth is a recovery off a soft base, not a new run-rate. Reversion toward mid-single-digit revenue and high-single-digit EPS is the base case once easy comps lapse.
28 Decelerating quarterly trend — Revenue confidence flags the quarterly trend as decelerating even while YoY looks strong — the boom's contribution may be peaking rather than compounding.
25 Industrial/scientific capex sensitivity to macro — With 10y at 4.64% and a flagged macro-headwind backdrop, the Instrumentation and lab/scientific end markets (non-defense) are the cyclical soft spot; academic and industrial capex is the first to slip.
26 M&A execution dependency — If growth requires deals, growth requires targets at workable terms and clean integration. Any pause in the bolt-on cadence converts the growth call to Holding almost immediately.
Two funded macro currents dominate Teledyne's markets: allied defense rearmament (unmanned, subsea, ISR sensing) and the broad instrumentation/imaging investment boom tied to semiconductor, space and autonomy build-outs. Both are budget-driven and slow-moving, which gives Teledyne multi-year order visibility on the defense side. Against that, higher-for-longer rates pressure industrial and scientific capex and raise the bar for the acquisition arithmetic the company depends on. Net: the world is supportive of the business direction but not of a step-change in its growth rate.
Growth position composite +4
ShrinkingStallingHoldingGrowingAccelerating
70Next 2 quarters · Growing
70Year 1 · Growing
50Years 2–3 · Holding
+4Composite (−100…+100)
A research prediction, not advice. Forward-graded: each rung is scored against the prints that follow it. Not an input to the GEM designation — track record first.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-27 06:33:10
Verdict Overvalued but not egregiously — fair value $500-550 vs $633 current; synthesis's $300 target is too punitive given clean balance sheet and $1.07B FCF, but 33x PE on 7.5% ROIC compounder isn't defensible. Trim, don't short.

Looking at the raw quarterly tape first: revenue has moved $1.44B → $1.50B → $1.45B → $1.51B → $1.54B → $1.61B → $1.56B → $1.66B over eight quarters — that's roughly 15% cumulative, or ~7-8% annualized, better than the 4.2% five-year CAGR suggests. Net income is choppier ($262M in Q3'24 was an outlier high; $188M in Q1'25 the low), but the four most recent quarters run $220-276M vs $189-262M in the prior four — real, if modest, earnings growth. Operating margin at 18.8% and gross at 42.8% are respectable for a diversified instruments/sensors business but not extraordinary. ROE of 8.5% and ROIC of 7.45% are the numbers that should stop any bull cold: this is not an 18-20% ROIC compounder, full stop. The $10.5B equity base against $895M net income tells you goodwill from the FLIR/e2v/etc. deals is doing heavy lifting and returns on that invested capital are mediocre.

The synthesis's $288-300 fair value looks directionally right but probably too harsh. At $633 the stock trades at 33x earnings, 5.2x EV/sales, 21x EV/EBITDA, and ~27x FCF ($1.07B / $29.4B mcap). For a business growing revenue 7-8%, earnings ~9%, with 7.5% ROIC, a fair multiple is probably 18-22x earnings — call it $475-540, or 15-25% downside, not 53%. The DCF's $300 print likely assumes reversion to 3-4% growth and no terminal M&A value; that's punitive for a company that has demonstrated capital deployment capability, even at mediocre incremental returns. So I partially dissent from the synthesis magnitude while agreeing on direction.

The narrative layer nails the actual disconnect: this is priced as a platform monopoly but operates as a bolt-on aggregator with sub-cost-of-capital ROIC on incremental deals (7.5% ROIC vs likely 8-9% WACC). The bull case requires either (a) defense budget acceleration flowing to FLIR/sensor content — plausible but already partially priced across the whole A&D complex, or (b) a step-function M&A deal that re-rates the story. The bear case's weakness is that FCF is genuinely strong ($1.07B, 22% CAGR) and the balance sheet is clean (debt/equity 0.24, current ratio 1.64), so the downside is bounded — this isn't a blow-up candidate, it's a multiple-compression candidate. Insider selling of ~7,000 shares total is noise, not signal; ignore it. The "decelerating quarterly trend" tag in revenue confidence is wrong — sequential growth just accelerated from +2% to +6%.

Contrarian pushback worth taking seriously: TDY's aerospace/defense exposure (roughly half of revenue via FLIR Defense and Aerospace & Defense Electronics) is entering a genuinely favorable multi-year cycle — Ukraine restocking, drone/counter-drone, space ISR. The 7.5% ROIC understates the incremental economics because it's dragged by legacy goodwill; new organic and small bolt-on capital may earn substantially more. If organic growth inflects to 8-10% for 2-3 years with 100-150bps of margin expansion, EPS could compound low-teens and today's 33x becomes tomorrow's 22x without a price change. That's the bull case that keeps me from full dissent — but it requires believing something not yet in the numbers. My verdict: overvalued, but not by 53%. Fair value $500-550, current $633 embeds ~15-25% of narrative premium that could persist if defense tape stays hot. I'd trim, not short; I wouldn't buy here without a 15%+ pullback or a Q3/Q4 revenue print confirming 8%+ organic.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-27 06:33:26
Verdict Overvalued at $633.56 — high-quality cash generator, but the current multiple prices in a step-up in growth and returns that the reported numbers do not yet support; fair value looks closer to $500.

The raw numbers say Teledyne is a very good business, but not a $634 stock. Revenue has grown from $4.61 billion in 2022 to $6.12 billion in 2025, a solid 10% annualized clip over that span, yet the more recent cadence is plainly slower: 2024 to 2025 revenue rose 8.0%, and the quarterly run-rate from $1.45 billion in March 2025 to $1.66 billion in June 2026 is healthy but not explosive. Profitability is respectable rather than exceptional. Annual operating income was $1.15 billion on $6.12 billion of sales in 2025, an 18.8% operating margin, while net income was $894.8 million, only modestly above the $885.7 million posted in 2023. That is the key tension here: sales keep edging up, but earnings are not compounding nearly fast enough to justify a 33.6x P/E and 21.4x EV/EBITDA multiple.

The cash flow profile is the best part of the story. Teledyne produced $1.19 billion of operating cash flow and $1.07 billion of free cash flow in 2025, with capex only $117.3 million. On the surface that supports the quality premium. Balance sheet risk is also contained: $2.48 billion of debt against $352 million of cash and $10.5 billion of equity is not stretched, and a 1.64 current ratio gives the company room. But even here, the valuation asks too much. At a $29.4 billion market cap, that $1.07 billion of FCF is only about a 3.6% FCF yield. That can work for a business with clearly superior returns and durable double-digit organic growth; Teledyne instead shows 7.5% ROIC and 8.5% ROE, both good enough for a stable compounder but nowhere near the kind of capital efficiency that should command such a steep premium. The market is paying up as if this were a uniquely advantaged platform; the accounting reality looks more like a disciplined, diversified instrument company with decent, not elite, economics.

The quarterly margin pattern reinforces that caution. Net margin moved from 13.0% in March 2025 to 13.9% in June 2025, 14.3% in September 2025, then spiked to 17.1% in December before slipping back to 14.5% and 15.1% in the first half of 2026. That is improvement, but it is not a clean step-function re-rating in underlying earnings power. If I annualize the first half of 2026, Teledyne is running near $6.4-6.5 billion in revenue and roughly $950-960 million in net income. That implies the stock is still around 30x forward earnings even on favorable extrapolation. For a company with a long-term earnings CAGR of just 0.5% in the supplied data and recent revenue growth under 8%, that is simply too rich. I think the stock deserves a premium to generic industrials because of mix quality and cash generation, but a premium is different from a heroic multiple. A fairer range is closer to 22-26x earnings, which on roughly $20-21 of forward EPS points to something like $450-540, not $634.

The best argument against this bearish valuation read is that Teledyne’s business quality is better than the blunt ratios imply. Gross margin of 42.8% and operating margin of 18.8% are strong for an instrumentation-heavy portfolio, and free cash conversion is excellent. Recent quarterly revenue growth of 7.9% and earnings growth of 9.2% suggest acceleration rather than stagnation, and if that pace is sustained while margins continue to lift from the mid-teens toward the high teens on a net basis, the market may be correctly sniffing out a better earnings trajectory than the annual history shows. There is also the possibility that serial acquisition economics are understated by reported ROIC because the company is carrying sizable acquired intangibles and amortization effects that depress accounting returns. If management can keep compounding via disciplined M&A while deleveraging naturally through $1 billion-plus annual FCF, a premium multiple is not irrational. I still weigh those positives less heavily because the current price already assumes that favorable path, leaving little room for ordinary execution.

What would change my mind is not another “good quarter”; it would be evidence of a genuine earnings power reset. If Teledyne can push annual revenue above $6.7 billion while taking operating margin above 20% and converting that into at least $1.1-1.2 billion of annual net income or sustained FCF well north of $1.2 billion, then today’s multiple would start to look less demanding. Conversely, if growth slips back toward 4-5% or margins stay around 14-15% net, I would expect the valuation premium to compress. The insider sales are not decisive on their own, but they do not help support the case that shares are obviously cheap at these levels.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-27 06:33:54
Verdict Overvalued at $633; fundamentals support ~$300–350, 33× PE unjustified by 4% growth and 7.5% ROIC

The raw numbers describe a high-quality but thoroughly mature industrial compounder, not the high-ROIC platform the multiple implies. Teledyne printed $6.12B in 2025 revenue with $894.8M of net income and $1.07B of free cash flow—real cash generation, low capex intensity ($117M), and a fortress balance sheet (debt/equity 0.24, $2.48B debt against $10.51B equity). Sequential quarters show steady low-to-mid single-digit expansion: trailing four-quarter run-rate is roughly $6.4B, recent revenue YoY +7.9%, and net margins have firmmed from the low-teens into the 14–17% band. That is respectable. What it is not is scarce. Revenue CAGR over the visible window is only 4.2%; earnings CAGR is essentially flat at 0.5%. ROIC sits at 7.45% and ROE at 8.5%—ordinary returns for a scientific-instruments roll-up. Paying 33.6× earnings, 21.4× EV/EBITDA and 4.9× sales for mid-single-digit growth and high-single-digit capital returns is the core disconnect. At $633 the market is capitalizing roughly $29B of enterprise value on a business whose DCF-consistent cash-flow profile supports something closer to half that.

The valuation models’ $300 fair-value anchor is directionally correct even if the precise number is debatable; the stock embeds a narrative premium of more than 100% over steady-state cash flows. FCF yield is only ~3.6% at the current price. Gross margin of 42.8% and operating margin of 18.8% are solid but not expanding fast enough to close that gap organically. Recent insider activity is uniformly sales. The “serial acquirer compounding machine” story only works if incremental deals clear well above the current 7–8% ROIC hurdle and if defense/autonomy budgets deliver durable organic acceleration—neither of which is visible in the trailing multi-year growth rates.

The strongest opposing case is straightforward: FCF has compounded at 22%, the balance sheet can fund further bolt-ons without stress, and the latest two quarters ($1.56B and $1.66B) plus 9% earnings growth hint at an inflection that sell-side defense narratives will gladly extrapolate. A buyer can argue that 33× is the clearing price for scarce, mission-critical sensor exposure with government tailwinds and that ROIC will rise as integration synergies mature. I weigh that lightly because the same story has already been paid for: the multiple already assumes the high-teens ROIC and 5–7% organic growth the bear narrative correctly flags as aspirational. Flat multi-year earnings CAGR and decelerating quarterly revenue confidence argue the inflection is not yet earned.

I would reverse course on a sustained print of organic revenue growth above 8% with ROIC pushing through 12%, or a clear multi-year defense budget step-up that lifts the order book without multiple compression. Until then the asymmetry sits with the short side of the narrative premium.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.3; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.7 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 2.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-27 06:47:21
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 7/10
Great business, wrong price - TDY is a full-priced compounder riding a defense/AI-infrastructure tailwind that I want to own materially lower.
The cruxWhether the market keeps capitalizing accretive M&A and margin expansion as near-certain, or reverts to pricing TDY as a mid-single-digit-growth, 7.5% ROIC instruments roll-up.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from TDY's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+51
Strong
edge √Σ 119 · risk √Σ 63 · conf 8/10

Teledyne shows the profile of a mature, well-run technical-instruments compounder. Revenue has grown from $4.61B (2022) to $6.12B (2025), gross margin expanded from 39.9% to 42.8%, and operating margin from 13.5% to 18.8% — real operating leverage, not accounting flattery. Net income scaled from $445M to $895M and FCF from $723M to $1.07B, with OCF/NI at 1.24x and accruals at -1% of assets, both indicating cash-backed earnings. Beneish M of -2.45 and Altman Z of 5.09 corroborate high earnings integrity. Capital discipline is intact: diluted shares crept from 44.3M to 47.4M (roughly 1.7% CAGR), so per-share value is not being eroded by SBC or issuance. The main constraint is the balance sheet: net debt of ~$2.12B against just $352M of liquid cash, and $450M of short-term debt exceeding cash on hand. With $1B+ of annual FCF this is easily serviceable, but it is a working constraint rather than a cushion. Insider activity is small, exercise-and-sell in character (five sales totaling ~$4.7M, no buys) — normal for a mature large-cap and not a directional signal. Overall the business reads as solidly healthy across profitability, cash conversion, and earnings quality, with leverage as the only real qualifier.

Strengths 4
m70
Operating leverage is real
Operating margin expanded from 13.5% (2022) to 18.8% (2025) on revenue growth from $4.61B to $6.12B — gross margin also up ~290 bps, indicating mix/pricing gains, not just cost cuts.
m65
High earnings quality
OCF/NI at 1.24x, accruals -1% of assets, Beneish M -2.45, Altman Z 5.09 — mechanical checks find no manipulation flags; earnings are cash-backed.
m55
Strong free cash generation
FCF of $1.07B in 2025 (~17.5% of revenue) provides ample coverage of debt service and reinvestment without needing external capital.
m45
Share count discipline
Diluted shares grew only ~1.7%/yr (44.3M to 47.4M over four years); per-share value is not being materially diluted.
Concerns 3
m50
Net debt position
Net debt of $2.12B vs $352M liquid cash; cash/market cap only 1.2%. Balance sheet is a constraint rather than a fortress, though FCF easily services it.
m35
Short-term debt exceeds cash
$450.1M short-term debt vs $352.4M liquid cash creates near-term refinancing exposure — manageable given FCF, but worth monitoring.
m15
Insider sales only, no buys
Five S-sales totaling ~$4.7M in the last 12 months with zero open-market buys; small in absolute terms and consistent with routine comp monetization, but no insider conviction signal either.
This looks like a well-run, mature technical compounder. Margins are expanding cleanly, cash conversion is above 100% of net income, and the mechanical fraud/manipulation screens are unusually clean. Share count is essentially flat for a business of this scale. The one thing I would not call a strength is the balance sheet — $2.1B of net debt with short-term debt above cash means they need to keep the FCF machine running, and they clearly do, but a shock would bite. Insider tape is a non-event. I read this as a Strong business — comfortably in the 75-87 band, closer to the middle of it, with leverage and unproven moat detail keeping it from the higher rung.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Segment mix and organic vs acquired growth in the 10-K to gauge underlying durability of the margin expansion
  • Debt maturity ladder and covenants — specifically the composition of the $450M short-term debt
  • Customer/end-market concentration (defense, industrial, imaging) and any single-customer exposure
  • SBC as % of revenue and buyback activity vs issuance to confirm the low share-count growth is not masked by repurchases funding SBC
  • Acquisition cadence and goodwill/intangibles roll-forward given Teledyne's serial-acquirer history
Valuation / Mispricing
-78
Rich
edge √Σ 18 · risk √Σ 122 · conf 6/10
Price $633.56 vs deserved ~$400-450 (quality-adjusted, above composite $288 but below DCF $353); roughly 30-40% overpriced. attractive below $430.00

The e2e work pegs composite FV at $288 and signal-adjusted FV at $300, with DCF at $353 and an EPV floor of $159 — every method sits well below the $633 tape. Even taking the most generous method (DCF at $353) implies roughly 45% downside, and the EPV floor implies the current earnings power alone justifies only about a quarter of the price. That gap is too wide to explain purely by method conservatism; it says the market is capitalizing continued accretive M&A, margin expansion, and defense/imaging tailwinds as if they are near-certain. For a Strong-but-not-Wide-moat conglomerate carrying $2.1B net debt, that is a demanding setup. Quality earns a deserved-value bump versus the composite, but not a doubling. My skeptical deserved value lands somewhere in the $380-450 zone — better than the raw composite because earnings quality is clean and cash conversion is above 100%, but still materially under $633. That leaves the stock in Rich territory rather than obviously Overvalued, because the business is real and the DCF number is defensible; it just does not leave a margin of safety at today's price.

Cheap signals 1
m18
High earnings quality argues for a premium to composite
Cash conversion >100%, flat share count, clean accruals — deserved value should sit above raw composite, but not enough to bridge to $633.
Rich / priced-in 4
m78
Price 111% above composite FV
Composite $288 / signal-adj $300 vs $633.56 tape implies -53% upside. Even if the composite is too harsh, the gap is too large to close with a quality bump alone.
m70
EPV floor $159 says current earnings do not underwrite the price
The no-growth earnings power is roughly a quarter of the share price. All the value is in future compounding via M&A and organic growth — heroic if organic is only mid-single-digits.
m55
Even the friendliest method (DCF $353) leaves -44% downside
The most generous of the three fair-value reads still sits far below spot; there is no method in the pack that endorses $633.
m30
Leverage constrains the M&A engine that the multiple assumes
$2.1B net debt with short-term debt above cash means the roll-up cadence baked into the price faces a real cost-of-capital headwind.
This is a good business at a full price, not a mispricing. Every valuation method in the pack sits below the tape, and even generously adjusting the composite upward for clean earnings quality does not get me to $633. I would want the stock in the low $400s before the risk/reward flips; between here and there it is a hold-and-watch, not a buy.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Organic (ex-M&A) revenue growth by segment in latest 10-Q to test the 5-7% assumption
  • FCF conversion and M&A cadence guidance on next call
  • Defense/imaging book-to-bill and any DoD budget signal
  • Interest expense trajectory and refinancing schedule on the $2.1B net debt
General Sentiment
+42
Tailwind
tail √Σ 86 · head √Σ 41 · conf 7/10

The active story on TDY is a platform-monopoly/defense-and-AI-infrastructure narrative with strong intensity and moderate durability. Recent 72h flow reinforces it directly: selection for the U.S. Army DUTCH thermal-sensing program, a new FLIR autonomous-vessel camera, PCIe 6.0 and Ultra Ethernet validation tools tied to AI/HPC, and the accretive Varex buyout. Peer framing (TDY vs AXON) is favorable, citing 22.4% YTD gains, cheaper relative valuation, and rising EPS estimates - analyst tone is leaning constructive rather than skeptical. That is a coherent tailwind package for this specific name. The macro tape is mildly risk-on (+30) but fragile - VIX 15.2, S&P off its high, 10y at 4.64%, market PE 25.7. With beta 0.92 and a defensive/defense-tilted profile, TDY is only lightly exposed to a risk-off flip; it neither gets the full lift of a mania tape nor the full damage of a wobble. Net: the narrative is doing more of the pushing than the macro. The main non-fundamental risk is not today's flow but narrative durability - the story is 'moderate' durability, and the bear framing (roll-up dressed as a monopoly, premium to DCF) is dormant, not dead. Any defense-budget wobble or M&A misstep could reawaken it quickly, but there is no such catalyst on the tape right now.

Tailwinds 3
m62
Defense + AI-infrastructure narrative firing
DUTCH Army thermal-sensing win, autonomous-vessel camera launch, and PCIe 6.0/Ultra Ethernet AI validation tools all land inside the exact bull story the market is pricing. Story and news flow are aligned.
m45
Constructive analyst/peer framing
TDY-vs-AXON coverage highlights 22.4% YTD gains, cheaper relative valuation, and rising EPS estimates - tone is favorable rather than skeptical, supporting continued bid.
m38
M&A cadence reinforces roll-up story
Varex buyout ($1.1B all-cash) keeps the platform-consolidator narrative visible and credible in the near term, feeding the archetype the market rewards.
Headwinds 2
m30
Stretched tape, rate/PE overhang
10y 4.64%, market PE 25.7, VIX creeping up and S&P off highs create a mild valuation-compression risk for a name already trading well above DCF - but beta 0.92 mutes the hit.
m28
Narrative durability only moderate
Platform-monopoly framing on what is functionally a diversified instruments roll-up is vulnerable if defense budget momentum stalls or an integration hiccup surfaces; the bear case is quiet, not gone.
Net leans tailwind. The active narrative is the exact one the market is paying for right now - defense sensing plus AI-infrastructure plumbing - and this week's news flow feeds it directly, with analyst framing constructive. The macro tape is mildly supportive but fragile, and TDY's sub-1 beta means it neither rides a mania nor gets mauled in a wobble. The only real non-fundamental risk is the story's moderate durability, but nothing on the current tape is challenging it. I read this as a persistent, moderate tailwind - not euphoric, not decisive, but clearly pushing up.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • DoD FY budget signals and defense contract cadence into year-end
  • Varex integration commentary and any organic-growth disclosure at next print
  • Whether sell-side target revisions continue upward or start plateauing
  • VIX break above 18-20 or a sharper risk-off rotation out of defense/industrials
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
+4
Growing
edge √Σ 96 · risk √Σ 92 · conf 7/10

Two funded macro currents dominate Teledyne's markets: allied defense rearmament (unmanned, subsea, ISR sensing) and the broad instrumentation/imaging investment boom tied to semiconductor, space and autonomy build-outs. Both are budget-driven and slow-moving, which gives Teledyne multi-year order visibility on the defense side. Against that, higher-for-longer rates pressure industrial and scientific capex and raise the bar for the acquisition arithmetic the company depends on. Net: the world is supportive of the business direction but not of a step-change in its growth rate.

Growth drivers 4
m60
Defense, marine and unmanned demand
Segments tied to DoD/allied rearmament, subsea and unmanned platforms are the identifiable engine behind the +8.7% revenue and the two consecutive EPS beats (+8%, +6%). Multi-year defense budget cycles and European rearmament make this a funded, backlog-visible driver rather than a sentiment story.
m53
Operating leverage on stable mix
Operating income +16.7% and net income +20.1% on +8.7% revenue means roughly 2x incremental leverage — pricing plus cost discipline in Instruments/Imaging. Earnings can grow well above revenue for several more quarters even at mid-single-digit top line.
m41
FCF-funded bolt-on machine
FCF CAGR of 22% against 4.2% revenue CAGR gives dry powder for the acquisition cadence that has historically supplied most of Teledyne's growth. Inorganic revenue is a repeatable mechanism here, though it dilutes the 'organic growth' read.
m34
Category boom
Scientific & technical instruments in a confirmed boom phase (category median growth 12.1%, industry 12.4% 3yr CAGR) means the rising tide supports orders, pricing and margin retention even for a slower-growing participant.
Growth risks 5
m60
Share loss inside a booming category
Recent YoY 7.9% vs industry 15.3% — a 7.5pt gap. Teledyne is participating in the boom at roughly half the category rate, consistent with a mature, acquisition-dependent portfolio rather than a product-cycle winner. This is the single most important structural fact.
m53
Mature underlying earnings power
Five-year revenue CAGR 4.2% and earnings CAGR 0.5% — the current 20% net income growth is a recovery off a soft base, not a new run-rate. Reversion toward mid-single-digit revenue and high-single-digit EPS is the base case once easy comps lapse.
m28
Decelerating quarterly trend
Revenue confidence flags the quarterly trend as decelerating even while YoY looks strong — the boom's contribution may be peaking rather than compounding.
m25
Industrial/scientific capex sensitivity to macro
With 10y at 4.64% and a flagged macro-headwind backdrop, the Instrumentation and lab/scientific end markets (non-defense) are the cyclical soft spot; academic and industrial capex is the first to slip.
m26
M&A execution dependency
If growth requires deals, growth requires targets at workable terms and clean integration. Any pause in the bolt-on cadence converts the growth call to Holding almost immediately.
vs expectations: ~6m above · 1y inline · 2-3y below
The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -7.4% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 27, 2026, TDY was $626.44. We expect it to be $580.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $430.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 27, 2026.

Price when predicted$626.44
Our estimate for Feb 2027$580.00-7.4%
Great value below$430.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

Post-Report Due Diligence NOTES
The report is written. This is what its valuation stands on.
Analyzed Oct 5, 2026 · 02:01 2d ago
Read epv-floor ext-gem-composite anchored-pe · FY income statement, balance sheet
1 finding · $0, re-derived on each view

Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.

anchored-pe — the "fair value above price" reading turns on 2 inputs NOTE found by sensitivity, not by rule
Published $678.94 vs price $633.56. Nudging `trailing_eps` (down 10%), `adjusted_pe` (down 10%) moves the fair value to the other side of the price. This does not say those inputs are wrong — it says they are where to look first.
trailing_eps flips down 10% adjusted_pe flips down 10%
Price at analysis $633.56. This is where an investigation should start — it is not where one ends. Nothing here was checked against the filings, the tape, or the news; that is the investigator's job.
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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.760 · f4b58a28 · 2026-10-07 20:07:48